Conference Finals Preview

EAST

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic

8-0 so far. Well rested and full of energy, this year, nobody is hungrier than the Cavs. Excellent chemistry, playing with heart and hustle, tough rebounding and defending, peak at the right time, what to complain? Plus, an unstoppable LBJ. Have you seen all the crazy shots that LBJ hoisted and made recently? Suggest you hit youtube and you'll know how surreal things are right now. With LBJ drawing defenders, teammates are getting all the open looks . Without a doubt they are playing the best basketball right now.

Now, please stop all the “what if KG had been in uniform”questions, the Magic beat the defending champion and is right here, now and present. Forget the Celtics. The Magic win games by 3-pt shooting and defense. Nobody relies on outside shots more than the Magic, and they have enough shooters to get the job done. Meanwhile, they have DH12 dominating the paint.

For this series, LBJ will do it all, as usual. Driving to the hoop, hitting outside shots, setting up teammates, rebounding, defending opponents' ace, you name it. Expect him to post yet another round of 30-8-6 stats. I repeat, no one can stop LBJ right now. Meanwhile, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Gibson and Sczcerbiak will take turn to hit the open 3s. Big Z is a super efficient scorer who also rebounds well. I like the idea of starting Varejao instead of Big Ben. Varejao is the designated energy guy who is obviously more active and athletic than Big Ben, who is really washed out at this stage of his career. The Cavs will once again play suffocating defense and will have a huge advantage in rebounding.

I don't think DH12 will be very effective against the Cavs' tough defense, but he will get his share of double-double as usual. On the other hand, Magic's outside shooting will be a threat to the Cavs. LBJ may be able to contain either one of Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, but they will have trouble stopping the other one. Either Varejao will take up Lewis, which will make Ilgauskas being exposed to play DH12 one-on-one, or Delonte West will take up the assignment to cover Turk, but will give up a lot of size. The Lee/ Pietrus combo is athletic as well. The worst nightmare for the Magic would be LBJ getting Dwight Howard into foul trouble.

To make it short, I don't think the Cavs would be able to sweep the Magic, but with LBJ playing like a superhuman, the Cavs should have no problem finishing them off.

Cavs in 6.


WEST

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

After much drama, the Lakers advanced to the Conference Finals, just as expected since the very first day of the season. From the Rockets series, we learned that the Lakers are certainly not invincible. They could play with unacceptable lethargy. Don't blame Odom's minor injury, inconsistency has been their problem throughout the season. However, they are still the deepest team in the league. We saw them trashing the Rockets by 40 pts. And we saw them winning games just when needed, like Game 7. If just by watching Game 5 and 7, you will never understand why the series was pushed to 7 games. When they are focused and play hard, they dominated on both ends. But they were not able to play hard every night.

On the other side, we have the hottest team in the West. Thanks to the arrival of Billups, the Nuggets have transformed into a genuine elite team. Billups provides much needed leadership to the team. 'Melo has been shooting the lights out, while the entire team are full of fire and energy. In terms of chemistry and intensity, they are the exact opposite of the Lakers.

So what's the take? The Lakers can win at the frontcourt. Gasol should have no problem scoring down low. K-Mart is a thug, but don't mix that up with good defender. After surgeries on both knees, his defense rotation is slow and he doesn't have any lift. Nene flat out can't play D period. Odom and Ariza would take turn to score on 'Melo. Chris Anderson is a hustle guy who, well, hustles. OK, I don't count on Bynum, but Lakers would easily out-score and out-rebound the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, 'Melo, assumed guarded by Kobe, will not score as easily as in the last two rounds, but he's so quick and versatile that it would be insane to expect him to score less than 25 PPG. Nene is a legitimate low post scorer. It would be interesting to see how the Lakers' bench to stop J.R. Smith's long range bomb. But the biggest advantage of the Nuggets is at PG. Chauncey Billups could score 30 pts by hitting his deadeye 3s, or get 12 assists by setting up teammates. If I were Phil Jackson, I will sacrifice the outside scoring and charge-taking of Fisher and start Jordan Farmar at PG. There's no chance that Fisher should be able to guard Billups. He's just too washed up. I would even play Shannon Brown ahead of Fisher . So if the Lakers has supreme advantage in the frontcourt and rebounding, they just give back the Nuggets the edge at PG and outside shooting.

So we come to Kobe. We have seen him taking less shots and scoring less this season Yes, with such a deep roster, he doesn't need to score 50 pts to win. He still scored all those tough shots (though I have been critical of his shot selection), and he can score 40 pts with ease. He could play tough defense (e.g. against 'Melo). But the problem is, I do not see a Black Mamba in Kobe. I do not see him showing the much needed killer instinct. Come to think about it, the Nuggets have no Artest or Battier to guard Kobe. It's clear that the Nuggets can only double-team Kobe, a strategy George Karl might not take due to the presence of many outside shooters in LA. On defense, Kobe is the one who can stop 'Melo. Simply put, this series is entirely on Kobe. It's for him to win. Or lose.

Lakers in 6. (Imagine David Stern checking the TV rating of Denver and LA, and then make a phone call to the refs to ensure that the Kobe-LBJ duel happen.

LA Lakers @Utah Jazz, Game 3, April 23, 2009

Scouting report

Utah Jazz

The Jazz set the game tone right at the start of the game. They played tough defense, aggressively harassing the Lakers, protecting the paint by roughing the Lakers’ big men, and controlling the board on both end. The Jazz outrebounded the Lakers 55-40, which is one of the main reasons why they won the game.

On offense, they executed perfectly. I didn’t see them running their famous pick-n-rolls much, but rather they had some good ball and player movement, breaking down the Lakers’ substandard defense, generating open looks both on the perimeter AND in the paint.

More importantly, despite being undersized, they were able to grab tons of offensive rebounds. All of them hustled for second chance. Good attitude.

Overall, the Jazz managed to play the grind-it-out type of slow paced game, which is definitely to their advantage. They also executed perfectly in the clutch time and were able to hang on with the 2-pt lead.

Deron Williams did not have his A-game today. His shots were off, worse is his FTs, an uncharacteristic 7-for-12. Well, he did come around before it’s too late and hit a clutch shot to win the game. As usual, he had 9 dimes and did a good job running the offense.

Carlos Boozer is a beast on the boards, 22 rebounds, including 5 offensive ones. He also scored as required, 22 pts, which was mainly from mid-range Js.

Ronnie Brewer scored some (12 pts), but what he contributed the most is playing in-your-face defense on Kobe, who obviously had an off night. He is clearly the unsung hero in this game.

Andrei Kirilenko was promoted to starter. However, he’s not the guy to finish the game. He made some early damage, but was largely invisible in Q4.

Jarron Collins… hmm… 7 mins, 1 reb, 1 stl, 1 pt.

It is their bench that won the game. Trailed by 60-68 after three quarters, the Jazz bench began a rally early in Q4. Again, the Lakers’ defense slipped a bit, which allowed Kyle Korver, Matt Harpring and C.J. Miles to hit consecutive outside shots as the Jazz eventually took back the lead at 73-72 with 9 mins to go. Harpring scored 8 pts during the run.

Paul Millsap did not start but he played a pivotal role in the last quarter. He flat out controlled the glass while protecting the paint. He even blocked Kobe’s J once! Millsap is the reason why the Jazz did not miss Okur in Game 3.

Korver was horrible in three quarters, passing out open shots, or missing shots badly. He’s defense is worse as ever. Well, Korver redeemed himself late in the game by hitting a few timely jumpers when the game was on the line.


L.A. Lakers

Facing Jazz’s suffocating defense, the Lakers shot badly (36.8% FG). They always settled for outside shots. Gone are the precise ball movement, as the Lakers relied heavily on iso, but they were not able to take any advantage when they called iso plays for guys like Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. The Lakers clearly was not comfortable playing with such a slow-paced game.

Right at the start of the game, the Lakers showed better defense. They were aggressive, and were quick on double-teaming guys like Boozer. However, they soon returned their old self. Poor baseline rotation resulted in a wide-open lane, as the Jazz repeatedly found open men in the paint for some easy layups. Andrew Bynum was ultra slow in defense, while Gasol always stayed too high and forgot to box out. Can’t imagine how the Lakers would survive when Mehmet Okur comes back, whose outside scoring ability will pull the Lakers’ big man further away from the paint.

I repeat, defense wins championship. I have the feeling that whenever they were down, instead of stopping the Jazz, the Lakers always tried to outscore the opponents. Maybe they could beat teams like Utah with such strategy, they are not going to win it all the way playing like that.

The only time when Lakers showed satisfactory performance is at the start of the 2H. They focused on closing down the lane, denying passing lines and challenging shots. In the first 3 mins of Q3, the Jazz missed 3 FG and committed 2 TO. With better ball movement, Kobe, Gasol and Trevor Ariza were able to have more open looks and started to hit the shots as the Lakers took a 10-1 run to take back the lead 49-44. They were able to maintain the lead as Ariza and Gasol continued to make shots. Too bad they let the Jazz come back in Q4 and eventually lost the game by 2.

Kobe settled for outside shots, as always. He particularly liked to fire (and miss) those tough, fade away jump shots. When he became aggressive attacking the basket, it was effective. He either made the layups, drew the fouls, or somehow his teammates scored. The Lakers is much easier to score when Kobe is attacking the basket. I don’t know why he did not do it more often.

Gasol scored 20 pts but hit just 4 of 10 FTs. They were lost by 2 pts, so go figure. Also, Gasol was not able to play acceptable defense. He remained as a sfot player after the tough Jazz big men.

Ariza was guarded by AK47 and was not as effective as in Game 2. He did hit 2 3-pters in Q3 when the Lakers began to build up their lead.

Derek Fisher had a silent game. His shots is off, he did not do a good job in distributing the ball, and he was outplayed by D-Will.

Bynum is clearly not 100%. He was very immobile and super slow in lateral movement. Though he made a few low post moves and scores, his defense was so bad that he either left his man wide open, or committed stupid fouls. He took his seat at the bench after committing his 5th foul with 1.30 min left in Q3! His total PT? 7 mins!

To me, Lamar Odom was the best player in the team. Not only he scored 21 pts, but he is the only Laker that cared about defense. He had 14 reb, including 5 offensive rebounds, which helped the Lakers to stay in the game.


This is how the Jazz won the game:

- After Boozer made 2 FTs to help the Jazz to take a 82-80 lead, Kobe penetrated and made a perfect dish to Odom for an easy layup. 82-82 1.07 min
- Next possession, D-Will and Boozer executed a perfect pick n roll with Boozer finishing with a tough layup. 84-82 Jazz. 47 sec
- The Jazz doubled-teamed Kobe at the corner, forcing him to call a 20 sec timeout. 30 sec. After the TO, Kobe drove at the baseline, getting past 3 defenders and hit a layup. Game tied at 84-84. 28.9 sec
- Boozer post up Gasol, then made a power move, driving past Gasol for a thunderous dunk. 86-84 Jazz. 16.9 sec
- This time, Kobe and Gasol made a perfect pick-n-roll as Gasol had a wide open running dunk. Tied at 86-86. 11.7 sec.
- Winning play: Deron Williams dribbled at the top of the key, shaking off Fisher, with a not-so-pretty crossover, the made a fade away jumper over a stretched Gasol. 88-86 Jazz. 2.2 sec.
- Kobe missed a 30-ft 3-pter badly. Game Utah

As you see above, the Jazz executed flawlessly in the closing minutes, scoring in 4 consecutive plays. On the other side, Kobe stepped up to make clutch plays, either scoring or setting up teammates. But they were not able to stop D-Will and Boozer when it matters. It is an impressive win by the Jazz. Give props to coach Jerry Sloan, who was able to play the game they want, and made perfect execution at clutch time.

Let’s see if the Jazz could be able to ride on this win and get another game in Salt Lake City on Saturday.

First round preview

Finally, it's playoffs time! As said before, I am not too thrilled about this postseason, simply because there is not much suspense. Namely, I do not think anyone can knock out the Lakers in the West. At the same time, the Cavs look so strong that seems like no one in the East can beat them, in particular that KG's knee problem has been worse than expected.

Fortunately, the first round should at least generate some drama. In the West, the Nuggets finished at #2, but they will face the Hornets, who is not an ordinary #7 team. And who will not be excited about the Spurs-Mavs All-Texas matchup? And I haven't mentioned the traditional tough matchup between the #4 (Blazers) and #5 (Rockets). In the East, could the defending champion, without KG, be able to fend off the red hot Bulls? What about Wade & Co against the now playoffs-tested Hawks? Anyway, here's my round 1 preview/prediction:

EAST

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons

Yes, a replay of 2007 Conference Finals. If the Pistons can't stop LBJ in 2007, I can't see how they could do it this year. The Cavs have the best record, including a surreal 39-2 home record. They finally have Mo Williams as a legit second banana, and a deep bench featuring Daniel Gibson, Wally Sczcerbiak, Anderson Varejao and Joe Smith. Losing Big Ben may hurt a bit but I don't think they miss him that much. Yes, the Pistons may be not as bad as its record show, but without Billups, they are not the same. First, they will have difficulty guarding Mo Williams, and I haven't mentioned how they could stop LBJ. Oops, I said that already. As Rasheed Wallace continued to age and becoming more and more disinterested, their frontline is not as formidable as before. Yes, the Pistons is a team in the past.

Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers

#2 Boston Celtics vs. #.7 Chicago Bulls

The biggest news of course is that KG will definitely miss the 1st round, and might miss the entire playoffs. A huge blow to the defending champion. I mean, they are still an elite team with good coaching. However, the Bulls are better than it appears. Don't be fooled by its record or standing, they are a decent team with depth after the trade for John Salmons and Brad Miller. Salmons' presence is particularly important now that Luol Deng is out. These, plus KG's unavailability, will make this series closer than people think. But it is still difficult to see Vinny Del Negro beating Doc Rivers and the entire Celtics coaching staff. I mean, this ain't no Hollywood movie, right? A rookie coach leading an underdog to beat the reigning champion? That's too dramatic in real life, with or without KG.

Prediction: 4-3 Celtics

#3 Orlando Magic vs. #6 Philadelphia Sixers

Like the Celtics, the Magic is haunted by injury as well. Turkoglu twisted his ankle towards the end of the season and missed the last two games. I have said before, Turkoglu is the second most important player in the team. Not Lewis, and certainly not (the injured) Nelson. Without a healthy Turkoglu, I don't see the Magic going deep in the playoffs. However, I still think they should have no problem finishing the Sixers, who had lost 6 in a row before beating the 2nd team of Cavs in OT in the 82nd game of the season. BTW, the Magic swept the Sixers in the regular season.

Prediction: 4-1 Magic

#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. #5 Miami Heat

As always, the #4-#5 matchup is the most exciting. The Hawks pushed the Celtics to the limit last year, and after that, the Hawks built on that and became a genuine elite team this season. Now the Heat. D-Wade played it all out to lead a team of mediocre players and rookies to #5 in the East, quite an accomplishment. Now, can he still have the mojo to carry the team to more success in the playoffs like what he did in 2006? I think so. I know the Hawks is a more complete team and they have Joe Johnson and Josh Smith and Mike Bibby, they play terrific defense, but I want some Wade moments. The playoffs need some drama, the league need some drama. Wade must do some magic to upset the Hawks and face LBJ in the 2nd round.

Prediction: 4-3 Wade, oops, I mean Heat


WEST

#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Utah Jazz

OK, Andrew Bynum is back, and he looks good in those brief moment on the court. On paper, no team is deeper than the Lakers. And they have Kobe. They also have Phil Jackson. What to complain? Yes, they still win games by offense more than defense, and sometimes they don't have that killer instinct to finish opponents. But guess that should be enough to finish the Jazz. It's a strange case why the Jazz faltered like that late in the season, in no coincidence when Boozer returned to the lineup. If I have to pick a reason, guess the impending free agency of Boozer, plus his diminished play time after the surge of Paul Millsap has somehow hurt their chemistry. Anyway, facing the Lakers probably is their worst nightmare, not to mention the fact that Phil Jackson always owns Jerry Sloan in the past.

My prediction: 4-1 Lakers

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

I have never been a fan of the Nuggets. I believe that they grabbed the #2 spot in the West is just a result of the injuries suffered by the Spurs, the Rockets and the Hornets. Yes, Chauncey "Big Shot" Billups is a huge addition to a team that lacks leadership. But they are still the Nuggets. On the other hand, the Hornets have solid players in CP3, Peja, David West, Tysan Chandler and playoffs specialist James Posey. So maybe a potential upset? Unlikely I'd say. Not without a healthy Chandler and Posey, no matter how brilliant CP3 is. And don't forget the choking history of Peja. I think the Nuggets will be lucky again and proceed to second round.

My prediction: 4-2 Nuggets

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks

A 2006 Conference Finals rematch. Sigh, the Spurs-Mavs rivalry sounds like ancient history nowadays. The Spurs was not the same without Ginobili, while the Mavs is not the same after their humble exit in 2007 and 2008 playoffs. It is reported that Tim Duncan has been bothered by knee injury throughout the season and he's clearly not his old self. But despite the strong run of the Mavs to finish the season, the Spurs is still the better team. The Spurs is a better defense team, and if J-Kidd couldn't slow down Tony Parker in 2003, there's no way that he could do it now. Dirk, despite his terrific stats, has regressed to an outside shooter this year, seldom taking down low in the paint. So don't expect him to have any heroic moment like in 2006. Time for the Mavs to rebuild, frankly.

My prediction: 4-2 Spurs

#4 Portland Trailblazers vs. #5. Houston Rockets

Probably the most exciting matchup in the first round. The Blazers is well liked universially. They are young, they are energetic, they have good spirits, and they are disciplined. Roy is certainly a superstar in the making; Fernandez is super entertaining; Aldridge, Outlaw are all talented players, while they also have some extremely solid role players like Blake, Przybilla and Batum. However, experience is the issue. The Rockets, on the other hand, is full of experience. First round exit experience, that is. This team is no doubt talented. Yao, Artest, Battier, Scola. Their backcourt (Brooks, Lowry, Wafer) maybe is undersized but super quck. This would be heck of a matchup. Hard to say which one is an underdog, as their records are so close. While my love for Yao is forever, I just think that the Blazers has better chemistry and they have one thing that the Rockets lack, a finisher (Roy).

My prediction: 4-3 Blazers

Awards Watch

The regular season is coming to an end, it's time to take a look at the candidates of all the awards.

Most Valuable Player

How do you define "most valuable"? The most talented? The most skillful? The highest scoring? The highest efficiency or PER? The one who is the most valuable to his team? The best player in the best team of the league? Maybe all of the above. Plus, since the award is voted by journalists, please also include the most hyped.

To me, I always take team success as the top priority. Not necessarily the best player in the best team, but I will never pick a player with terrific stat in a lousy team. Let's say the minimum is the top 10 teams in the league. Secondly, the MVP should be one of the best players in the league. For convenience sake, let's just say he must be top-10 in John Hollinger's PER list.

Here is the list of players who meet the above criteria as of today: LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Brandon Roy, Tony Parker, Chris Paul and Dirk Nowitzki. Yes, Dwyane Wade will be missed despite being the league's leading scorer and 2nd in PER, simply because Miami Heat is just a .500 team (42 games as of Sunday, April 12). You can say it is not a fair measurement of individual success but winning is one of the most important factors to define a player's greatness . Otherwise Bill Russelll will never be considered as one of (if not) the greatest player in history. So, sorry, Dwyane.

Next is the qualitative part. First he must be a genuine leader of the team, so Tony Parker is out. Secondly, he must have the ability to put the team on his shoulder and win games when needed. In order words, Tim Duncan (for this season) is out. Also, you should not be a choker, so Dirk Nowitzki is out.

So for the remaining, it's quite obvious who is the winner. Yes, there is still an argument whether Kobe or LBJ is a better player. However, for this season only, LBJ should win it. He is No. 1 in PER, No. 2 in scoring. I had been critical on his shooting and defense in the past, but this season we saw substantial improvement in both departments. The Cavs have the best record in the league, and a whopping 20-game improvement from last year. In case you don't know, LBJ leads the team in PTS, REB, AST, STL and BLK. Simply put, he is literally and figuratively the leader of the team.

While I have never been a big fan of him, I must admit I really appreciate his effort and determination to improve his short coming. Kobe is close, but the difference between his PER and that of LBJ is so large that I really can't make a good case for him.

My pick:

1. LeBron James
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Dwight Howard



Defensive Player of the Year

This is another tough one, because defense excellence could not exactly be reflected in individual stats. Instead, defense is more teamwork. That's why KG won it last season. I will look into team defense stat first. To qualify as a DPOY, your team must be one of the best defense teams in the league. After that, we may take a look at individual stats. Due to limited resources I can access, I would just look into REB, BLK and STL, but these are just for reference only. Lastly, and most importantly, the fear factor. A DPOY should be a player that makes his opponents fear. Some players are good defenders but can't scare their opponents, as opposed to guys like, you know, Ron Artest, Dikembe Mutombo and the Glove.

Based on the above criteria, I would go with the flow and pick Dwight Howard as DPOY. His team ranks 6th in pts allowed and 3rd in FG% allowed. He leads the league in REB and BLK. Most crucial, is that DH12 is a guy that you fear. LBJ, CP3 and Wade may also have terrific stats, but they are not the type of defenders that opponents fear. Yes, DH12 is still not perfect in his pick-n-roll defense, but at least for this year, he is the best defender in the league.

Houston Rockets have terrific defense stat too (although is slightly inferior to the Magic), and I must put Ron Artest and Shane Battier in 2nd and 3rd respectively. The most important difference between these two Rockets and Superman is the fear factor that DH12 imposes on his opponents.

My pick:

1. Dwight Howard
2. Ron Artest
3. Shane Battier


Rookie of the Year

This is easy. I think Chicago Bulls' Derrick Rose should win the unanimous vote, if the voters are sane. Rose is playing the toughest position for a rookie in a not-so-harmonized Bulls. They struggled early but had a late run to get back to the playoffs mix, now challenging to take up as high as No. 6 spot in the East. Rose never hit the so-called rookie wall, and has been extremely consistent. Only when he has improved his shooting (underrated actually) and defense, he will soon become one of the top PGs in the league.

Memphis Grizzlies' O. J. Mayo is good but then he plays in a lousy team and at a relatively easy position (swingman). He's no surprise that he posts decent scoring. Ditto for Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon. Mayo clearly is a better shooter than Westbrook and Gordon and therefore should finish No.2 in ROY. New Jersey Nets' Brook Lopez is clearly a solid big man with 13.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 1.8 BPG. However, I have watched him played, and I was not impressed by his low post moves, too robot-like. Anyway, he's the best big man for the Nets since, err, Mutombo in 02-03 season.

My pick:

1. Derrick Rose
2. O. J. Mayo
3. Brook Lopez


Sixth Man of the Year

This season, with leading candidate Manu Ginobili being slowed by injury and playing sparingly, it has come to only three legitimate candidates: Mavericks' Jason Terry, Suns' Leandro Barbosa and Nuggets' J.R. Smith. Had Andrew Bynum not been out that many games thereby forcing Lamar Odom to start 32 games, Odom would have been another candidate.

I think JT is clearly the winner here. With Josh Howard sitting out for a long stretch, the Mavericks would never have a chance to crack the playoffs without JT's tremendous effort. He also has the ability to win games on his own and hit the clutch shots. And I haven't mentioned his 19.5 PPG.

J.R. Smith kept on hitting his 3s to help the Nuggets to take the No. 2 spot in the West, while Barbosa, as always, provided much needed bench scoring for the Suns, whose bench is as thin as ever. But they are no match to Terry. As for Nate Robinson aka Krpto-Nate, please. Yeah, he scores a lot, but we all know players' stats and values are always inflated under D'Antoni (and his SSOL system). He's nothing but a showcase.

My pick:

1. Jason Terry
2. J.R. Smith
3. Leandro Barbosa


Most Improved Player

Another tough one. First, we need to look at the improvement in the players' stats. Then we will discount those improvement due to, e.g., increasing PT, promotion from bench to starting due to injuries of teammates etc. While normally this award will give to those players who rise from mediocre to stardom, I believe it is not fair to ignore those who are already stars but have advanced to become a superstar.

Anyway, the consensus goes to Devin Harris and I have no problem with that. Not only his stats, his role in the team has also changed substantially. Coach Lawrence Frank has given him the green light to take the lead in offense this season. He took up such role with confidence, and other than sitting out due to injury, he has been consistent. Yes, the Nets did not play well but this is a lousy team anyway. Harris is now a bona fide star.

Kevin Durant should also be given much consideration. His most improvement is not his scoring (from 20.3 to 25.5), but his shot selection. His FG% improved from .430 to 476, while his 3PT% saw a big leap from .288 to .422. Plus, he has assumed the leading role in the young OKC team. Rajon Rondo is another MIP candidate. Following his solid performance in last year's playoffs, Rondo has risen his game, in particular in scoring, and contributed a lot to the team's success when KG went down with injury. You just can't imagine the surmountable pressure he has, playing along with three future hall-of-famers and in a city where championship is expected.

I would not consider Danny Granger a legit candidate. For sure he's an all-star, but he was already very good last season, while his improvement this season is not that substantial, relatively speaking. And his injury has really hurt his case. Also, I will not put much consideration on Paul Millsap, whose stats improved mainly due to increased PT when playing in place of the injured Carlos Boozer.

My pick:

1. Devin Harris
2. Kevin Durant
3. Rajon Rondo


Coach of the Year

Now the most contraversial award. Should you award the most tactical coach in the league (in that case it should be either Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich or Jerry Sloan)? Or should you award the coach of the best team (Mike Brown)? What about the best teacher who managed to turn around a losing team (Larry Brown)? Or the coach that helped the team to make the most leap from mediocre to one of the best in the league (Stan Van Gundy)?

In the end, I decided to put my vote on McMillan. It's a no easy task to coach such a young team. On top of basketball, I bet he have put considerable time to manage his players' egos. Of course, the fact that the Blazers managed to stand at No. 4 in the competitive West counts.

SVG is also good in a way that he was able to take the team to another level, with basically the same squad (minus Jameer Nelson). But I can't deny the fact that I am irritated by his comments. He speaks too much, in particular about Shaq's flop, which makes me sick. Mike Brown should also get credits for the 20-game improvement of the Cavs. The thing I appreciate the most is that he was able to admit his limit and hired an assistant coach to improve the offense. The result is immediate. Also, it's no easy task to insert newcomers like Mo Williams into the system. The bad thing is, the presence of LBJ really hurts Brown's chance for COY. Also, I still believe he is not yet a resourceful coach, as in those could excels in X's and O's and make necessary in-game adjustments to win games.

My pick:

1. Nate McMillan
2. Stan Van Gundy
3. Mike Brown

March Madness 2009

I do not follow college basketball much. First, I do not have that much time to follow so many sports, and I would rather stick with the NBA. Second, I did not go to college in the US so I do not have much history or ties or even hates with any college at all (rivalvies included). Third, college basketball games are not shown in Hong Kong until at the late stage of the Tournament, and it is very difficult to follow something that you do not have a chance to watch. Last but not least, I find it difficult to attach any emotion to any college team, since under the current system, almost all college star players are “one and done” type. Good players always opt for NBA draft after their freshman year. That is, just when you are getting some feeling about them during their first Tourney, and after the summer, they will be donning a Clippers’ or Grizzlies’ or Timberwolves’ jerseys. That is the most frustrating of all.

Anyway, each year, I always start to pay attention to college basketball when March Madness begins. One reason is that I have to maintain conversation with my hoop friends. Most of them are from US colleges and pay so much attention to the Tourney that nobody is listening to me or arguing with me about the NBA during that one-month period, especially after the All-Star Game and the trade deadline when things are mostly settled.

I mean, the Tourney is intriguing. The one-and-out elimination format is always exciting. People always pull for any underdogs, and it's always fun reading bloggers/fans trashing Duke. Every year. That's really something. I mean, it's OK for you to hate the Yankees. It's OK for you to hate the Knicks or the Lakers. It's OK for you to hate the USA or George W. Bush. However, why do you hate a college team? C'mon, these are just kids! The Duke players do not deserve to be hated! What happen to these people?


Back to this year's Tourney. I have quickly looked at the bracket this year. There are many familiar teams, big names like Duke, UCLA, UNC, Memphis, UConn, or usual suspects like Pittsburgh, Michigan, Syracuse, Arizona, Texas, LSU, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, South California, Louisville, Tennessee, etc. Too bad we wouldn’t be seeing Stephen Curry and his Davidson Wildcats this year for another Cinderella run; or any impossible run by George Mason. The only story that is worth mentioning maybe is the surprise early exit of #4 seed Wake Forest, who was knocked out by Cleveland State in the first round.

As of today, first weekend’s games were finished. Not many upsets so far, as we see all 4 first seeds as well as all 4 second seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen. UNC, Louisville, Pittsburgh and UConn are the favorite picks of the Final Four so far. Let's see if there is any more surprises from now on.

In fact, the most important reason for me to follow the college games is that I need to prepare myself for the upcoming NBA Draft. That is why I always watch or follow the college games (the Tourney) like a scout instead of a fan. I seldom take note of who’s winning and who’s losing. Instead, I focus on the performance of individual potential draftees. This year’s draftees, according to ESPN’s Chad Ford, are not that great, where the talent level drops significantly after the top 3 or top 5 picks. However, we all know that the Tourney can boost up the stock of the players dramatically. Like the way Derrick Rose jumped from top-5 to unanimous #1 pick last year after an impressive Tourney performance. Or the championship team of Florida, led by Joakim Noah and Al Horford, all the members saw them did pretty well in the draft after their repeat. I know it's a bit late, but here are the potential stars in the Tourney that will likely be seen in the Green Room in June’s draft this year:

Blake Griffin, PF, 6'10", Sophomore, Oklahoma (Comparison: Carlos Boozer)

- consensus No.1 pick this year. Griffin simply dominated at the college level this season. His NO.1 status is so locked up that not even a disappointing tournament would hurt his chance.

James Harden, SG, 6'4", Sophomore, Arizona State (Comparison: Manu Ginobili)

- mostly viewed as an undersized SG, Harden is a projected top-5 pick and is one of the best scorers in college. He's a lefty, together with the fact that he is a solid defender renders him the Ginobili comparison. It's hard to see him getting past Griffin, but a big Tourney would give him a safe No.2.

Jordan Hill, PF, 6'9", Junior, Arizona (Comparison: Chris Wilcox)

- Super athletic with huge upside. Already projected as a Top-5 pick, Hill may further solidify his Top-3 status with a big Tourney.

Hasheem Thabeet, C, 7'3", Junior, Connecticut (Comparison: Samuel Dalembert)

- The saying is, you can't teach 7'3". However, there's a reason why Thabeet did not come out of college for the past 2 years. He's just not that talented. This draft will give him the best chance because of the lack of big men as well as another productive year in UConn.

Jeff Teague, G, 6'2", Sophomore, Wake Forest (Comparison: Monta Ellis)
Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, 6'8", Freshman, Wake Forest (Comparison: Josh Smith)

- Teague is said to be Top-10 while Aminu is lottery bound. Would the surprise early exit of the Demon Deacons hurt their values? While both are talented, on the downside, scouts said Teague is no CP3 in terms of pure-PG plays while Aminu is a bit raw.

Willie Warren, G, 6'4", Freshman, Oklahoma (Comparison: Jason Terry)

- excellent athlete and probably the best freshman in the country. He's a SG right now, but people would like to see if he can display some playmaking ability in order to boost him to Top-5.

Gerald Henderson, SG, 6'5", Junior, Duke (Comparison: Courtney Lee)

- He has a versatile all-round game and is so far projected to be mid-to-late-first round pick. The problem is, he is perceived as a streaky shooter. Can he benefit from a big Tourney to sneak into the lottery?

Earl Clark, SF, 6'9", Junior, Louisville (Comparison: Marvin Williams)

- long and athletic, Clark can also play PF. Perceived as an inconsistent player, the Tourney can determine whether he is mid-first round pick or Top-10.

Ty Lawson, PG, 5'11", Junior, UNC (Comparison: Raymond Felton)

- a mid-first round pick, but if UNC could go as far as the Final Four or further, Lawson may have a chance to go to the lottery.

Tyreke Evans, G, Freshman, Memphis (Comparison: Larry Hughes)

- an excellent scorer who has just been transformed into a PG. While the Derrick Rose comparison is not fair to him, Evans is so far mid-to-late-first round pick. A good Tourney hopefully could boost his value, like Rose last year, to say lottery.

DaJuan Blair, PF, 6'7", Sophomore, Pittsburgh (Comparison: Paul Millsap)

- an undersized PF in pro level, but a big Tourney run will help him to go from late-first round to top 10.

DeMar DeRozan, SG, 6'6", Freshman, USC (Comparison: Gerald Green)

- one of the most athletic guys in the Tourney. Already lottery bound, the success of the Trojans will help DeRozan to boost up to Top-10.

Cole Aldrich, C, 6'11", Sophomore, Kansas (Comparison: Kevin Love)

- one of the rare centers in this draft. This year's draft does not have too many top big men, so a good Tourney would give him a chance to crack the lottery, if not the Top-10.

Jrue Holiday, PG, 6'3", Freshman, UCLA (Comparison: Delonte West)

- He is the most intersting case. He's the most talented player in the team, but is very raw. While most scouts would like him with another year in college (and become a Top-3 pick in 2010), a big Tourney could convince GMs that he's NBA ready. Pure on talent, he's for sure lottery bound.

***

Here are the potential lottery picks not participating in the Tournament:

Greg Monroe, PF, 6'11", Freshman, Georgetown (Comparison: Pau Gasol)

- old school, fundamentally sound. He's not strong enough to play big in the pro level, but nonetheless is Top-5 locked.

Stephen Curry, PG, 6'3", Junior, Davidson (Comparison: Mike Bibby)

- I think Curry should have come out of college after a terrific run last season. However, his stock are still high despite Davidson missing the Tourney this season. Fearless, with strong leadership and a superb scoring skills, people like the way he's transformed into a PG. A Top-10 pick.

Competitive Landscape of the NBA

After all the injuries, deadline trades and veteran signings, let take a look at the competitive landscape of the league with around 20 games left for the season:

WEST:

Despite losing Andrew Bynum, the Lakers remain the favorite to win the West. Pau Gasol is more comfortable with the team after a full summer of practice, and Trevor Ariza is the energy guy that they have been looking for. Frankly, even without Bynum, I don’t think Phil Jackson worries about the Spurs much. Their goal is to win it all. Now, with the uncertainty arisen by KG’s injury, and with their own improved roster, the Lakers should be more confident when facing the Celtics this time around. As for the Cavs, the Lakers swept them this season, including a convincing win in Cleveland (Kobe sick, no Bynum) last month. They should not be scared by the Cavs should they meet them in the Finals. Yup, so far they looks like to be the favourite to win it all too.

The Spurs is at #2 but actually there’s quite some distance from the Lakers. Manu Ginobili will sit out the next 2-3 weeks, Caoch Greg Popovich is determined to give him as much rest as they can, so that Ginobili can be 100% in the playoffs. Newcomer Roger Mason is a pleasant surprise and Matt Bonner is probably the best scoring big men teammate Tim Duncan has ever had since the Admiral, but as I said many times, their defense has worsened quite considerably. Both Mason and Bonner are inferior defenders, and adding the fact that Bruce Bowen can no longer run with the opponents’ ace scorers, the Spurs might not have their famous suffocating defense on hand. I mean, how can the Spurs stop Kobe, Gasol and Odom at the same time? The addition of Drew Gooden is nice, but if you think he is the difference-maker, you probably should not be driving, cuz you've taken too much drugs.

No. 3 to No. 7 (Rockets, Jazz, Hornets, Blazers, Nuggets) are just 1 game apart. Yup, they are that close. The Rockets, now at #3, lost T-Mac for the season, but I think they did well by getting away the unproductive but aging Rafer Alston while adding a young and promising Kyle Lowry. Without T-Mac, they might remain competitive in the regular season, just like last year. But let's face it, their most problem is not talent but the lack of leadership. No one in the team can provide that, and please don't get me started with the "leadership" of Ron Artest. They stay no chance of beating the Lakers or the Spurs and if they maintain at #3, a second round exit is a likely outcome. They should, instead, focusing on the future, especially of Artest, who will become a FA this summer. He has been playing extremely well in the abesnce of T-Mac though.

The Jazz (#4) is the dark horse in the West. I’m not saying that they can beat the Lakers, but if healthy, the Jazz will be a serious threat to the Spurs, not to mention the Hornets and the Rockets. Carlos Boozer is back (however was out again in the last game), AK47 is also back and D-Will is healthy and once again playing like an all-star. They had been 8-2 for the last 10 games, and have just taken over the Northwest Division from the Nuggets. This is a well-coached team that went to the Conference Finals 2 years ago. They are as tough as steel and nobody would want to face them in the playoffs. While it’s remote to say that they can upset the Lakers, but anything other than that is entirely possible.

Perhaps the term "blessing in disguise" best described the Hornets. The non-trade of Tysan Chandler simply made them closer and stronger together. After struggling for the entire season, they are back on track again. CP3 and David West are playing like all-stars again. The chemistry is once again great and the team is in the zone. But the on-and-off injury of Tysan Chandler will be the determining factor on their success. If they really finishes at #5 as they are right now, they would have a tough matchup against the Jazz. I think they'd rather see the Rockets.

Everybody loves the Blazers (#6) and they are for sure young and lovable. I love them too and like everyone else, I love Brandon Roy. I’m glad that the rumored Vince Carter-Raef Lafrentz didn’t go through, but it’s a shame that they failed to make use of Lafrentz’s expiring contract to make any meaningful move before the trading deadline. The health of Greg Oden will forever be a concern, and so long as Oden has not been fully developed, the Blazers will remain just as a "first-round and out" team.

The Nuggets, once #3, had some recent struggle and the super intense competition in the West immediately sent them to #7. Say whatever you want about Billups, and they certainly are a better team than with Iverson, but I genuinely believe that this team is not as good as their record shows. Billups is good, ‘Melo is one of the league's top scorers and Nene has been a rare combination of size and athleticism, but others, namely Dahntay Jones, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith etc are all mediocre at best. If they can't regain the division title thus home court advantage in the first round, another early playoffs exit is the likely outcome.

The Mavs are playing better after the All-Star break, even without Jason Terry. With JT back, they should only be better. Although they are safer to make the playoffs now that the injury of Amare has pushed the Suns out of the playoffs picture, I don’t think they will be able to go any further. They just don’t defend well, as simple as that. They stay no chance of getting past the first round.

The Suns is an unlucky team. Just when things were turning around after the firing of Terry Porter, Amare went down. With Nash, J-Rich and Shaq, they remain as a solid team, but falling behind the Mavs by 4 games, it will be super tough for them to just make the playoffs without Amare. A huge blow to such a talented team. Anyway, the last playoffs spots will only grant them the rights to face the Lakers in the first round. I’m not sure it is worthy to do. Why not go to the lottery and try to get a better rookie this summer?


EAST:

Yes, the injury of KG (2-3 weeks) is a huge blow to the Celtics, and they might eventually end up at #2 in the East as a result. Yes, we saw how they beat the Cavs last weekend without KG, but we all know how important home court advantage is to the Celtics. Remember the horrible 6 consecutive road losses in last year’s playoffs? However, this is just a minor issue here. A more imminent problem is that this year’s Cs is not as deep as last year, and they don’t have a Posey or PJ Brown on the bench. Recent signings of Marbury and Mikke Moore help, but you will not confuse them with Posey and PJ Brown. Backup big men Big Baby and Leon Powe played well recently in the absence of KG, let's hope they could starting building up confidence. But at the end of the day, the Cs rely heavily on KG. If KG is anything but 100% when comes playoffs time, the Celtics will have trouble winning any frontcourt battle.

The Cavs was hit by injuries early on but now they have their full squad back. Big Z (Ilgauskas) is healthy, and Delonte West is back too. Yes, the Cavs were not able to pull a Shaq trade before the deadline, but they look like a legit contender right now. With the problems the Cs are facing, the Cavs have a good chance to win the conference this year. Adding Joe Smith is great, only is that he cannot replace Big Ben in the defensive end (yes, even the 2009 version of Big Ben). Last Friday's defeat in Boston is demoralizing, but nobody is hungrier than this team. They are young and dangerous. Oh and by the way, they have a player named LeBron James.

With Jameer Nelson’s season over, and despite the addition of Rafer Alston and Tyron Lue, the Magic are not figured to be a contender anymore. With 20 games left, they should be able to maintain their lead in their division and thereby locking up home court advantage in the first round. But what's next? They can't beat Celtics or Cavs anyway.

The Heat is a dark horse. I like their decision on sending the Matrix to Raptors. Jermaine O'Neal finally filled their big hole in the middle. They also added valuable role player Jamario Moon. With Wade playing like a MVP, the Heat, right now at #5 and is likely to start the first round on the road, could pull any upset against the Hawks or even the Magic. I’ve learnt that, with Wade, anything is possible. Rookie coach Erik Spoelstra needs to control and maximize the output of such a talented team. Is he up to the challenge?

After staying at the top in the East for years, the Pistons finally started to fall. Don’t blame Iverson, they would have gone south with or without the Billups-Iverson trade, although the trade for sure has speeded up the process. Let's make it clear, they took Iverson not because of his talent, but his expiring contract. I hate the Rip Ham coming off the bench experiment. Rip Ham, as we can see, is clearly more effective starting. You should never make roster decision simply because you don't want to upset the huge ego of an expiring contract (aka Iverson). People say they are experienced and talented, and it will not be a surprise for them to upset the Magic or the Hawks in the first round. But on second thought, you should never underestimate the potential damage on the team morale by the Iverson debacle. With a shaky morale, I don't see them pulling any upset in the playoffs, which would require a lot of confidence and determination. Their focus should be on this year’s and next year’s summer.

The Hawks and the Sixers are basically locked to the playoffs. Both teams have incomplete rosters and will just have a brief appearance in the playoffs.

The Bulls were quite busy last month making trades. They finally found a legit center in Brad Miller, got rid of Larry Hughes and Gooden, and added a young swingman (John Salmons). Yes, they miss Nocioni and his toughness, but this is a talented team mixed with youth and experience. They got size and athleticism. They have legit scorers and have partially alleviated the logjam in the guard positions. If I don’t look at the coach’s name, I will in no doubt picking them to get into the playoffs. I am still having problem connecting the words “coach” and “Del Negro”.

The Bucks play surprisingly good without their starting center (Andrew Bogut) and their franchise player (Michael Redd). They are now at #9 and are not far behind the Bulls (1/2 game). But the Bulls had a huge win last Friday over the Bucks, and gave the Bulls a tie-breaker. Kudos to the Bucks, and coach Scott Skiles, frankly, for playing hard in such an injury-plagued season.

The Nets failed to ship Vince Carter before the deadline. That’s a real shame, frankly. Consider this: this team is young, so young that they will unlikely make the playoffs any time before 2010 (although they are just 1 game behind the Bulls). Vince, now at 31, has no real business playing for a lottery team, except for the money. What they’ve been doing, is getting as much salary cap as possible for the impeding 2010 megastars sweepstake, and Vince’s contract won’t expire until 2011 the earliest. When 2010 comes, Vince will already be 34. The problem is, nobody wants Vince’s contract.

The Bobcats, just like other teams under Larry Brown in the first season, struggled in the first half but finally played some solid basketball in the second half. Yes, Larry Brown loves making roster moves but it's hard to argue against their solid plays recently. Seems like he finally has found a viable rotation: Felton, Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Diaw and Okafor starting, while DJ Augustin, Radmanovic and Diop off the bench. With just 1 game behind the Bulls, it would be a huge accomplishment if they could get into the playoffs.

The Knicks can continue dreaming of the playoffs.

Raptors send O'Neal to Heat for Marion

The trade:

Toronto Raptors agreed to trade center Jermaine O'Neal and swingman Jamario Moon (with a first round pick) to Miami Heat for ex-Suns Shawn Marion and guard Marcus Banks (and $3m cash).

For the Raptors:

Hailed as an up-n-coming team, the Raptors has been flat out horrible this season. Not only they failed to elevate to another level as expected, they are now second last in the East and can basically be ruled out of the playoffs even though there are still 30 games to play.

Apparently the management feels the same too. Yes, they were hit by injuries (Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh, JO). But even so, they shouldn't be that bad, ay? OK, they fired ex-COY Sam Mitchell (long due), but things didn't get any better with Canadian coach Jay Triano. With 2006 No.1 pick Andrea Bargnani finally coming to perform (yes, I traded him for JO early this season in my fantasy game, which looked good back then but obviously I gave him up too soon), they finally abandoned the JO experiment after just 50+ games.

As to why the JO trade failed, while there are many reasons, I believe the main problem is that both JO and Bosh are low post scorers who need the ball to be effective. Ideally, they should have turned JO into a role player, i.e. focusing on rebound, defense and facilitation while playing along with Bosh, and then taking the lead to score when Bosh sits. Somehow it never happened. At the same time, they saw Bargnani play extremely well after a horrible November. The problem is, even though he likes to shoot the 3s, Bargnani can't play at 3, since he can't catch up with the quick SF in the league. On the other hand, he did a passable job in blks and rebs. As such, the ideal frontcourt of Bargnani-Bosh-JO is not viable.

Given the age and the injury history, JO is obviously the odd-man out among the three. Matrix is quite ideal because they desperately need some scoring from the swingman position, because Anthony Parker or Jamario Moon are not scoring enough, while Jason Kapono only shoots 3s. Moreover, JO's contract is until 09-10 while Matrix's will expire after this season. So the Raptors can get some cost saving (10th highest in the league with $72m payroll this year) should they decide not to re-sign Matrix. Since they have all but given up this season, they can use the remaining 25-30 games to take a good look at Matrix.


For the Heat,

It's simple, size. Rookie Joel Anthony (6'9") is helplessly undersized at C, while Canadian Jamaal Magloire struggled mightily, start or not. With JO they have a legit C. WIth Dywane Wade shooting and slashing, JO has the entire paint for him to score. Udonis Haslem can now play at his natural position at PF. They don't need JO to be a 20-10 guy anymore, as they can settle him to be just 15-8. Matrix is expendable since he was never comfortable playing in Miami, as evidenced by his sharp drop in production (12.0 PPG 8.6 RPG this season vs. career avg of 17.9 PPG and 10.0 RPG).

Never underestimate the inclusion of Jamario Moon. Moon is an athletic player who is heavily underrated becaus he can't score much. However, he's a perfect role player, who plays hard and does all the dirty little works. He would be an ideal facilitator between Wade and JO. With Mario Chalmers running the game at PG and Haslem resume his old PF position, suddenly, the Heat have a complete lineup. While it will be a bit stretch to say they are contender now, but on paper they should be able to compete against any team not named Celtics or Cavaliers.

Furthermore, with JO manning the paint, Wade now needs not to take up all the scoring load and should see more open looks as a result of some double-teamming of JO. And we have seen how the Flash could single-handedly lift up the team to another level given a similar situation (2006 championship run).

What they give up is (1) salary flexibility. JO's $23m salary next year, which means they won't be able to make bid for any of this year's free agents (most notably Carlos Boozer); also without Matrix's expiring contracts, they will not be able to acquire talents from teams who want to dump salaries (Amare of Suns, for example); and (2) potential injury of JO, who's never played 82 games in any year and never played more than 70 games since, gasp, 03-04.

It's a calculated gamble for the Heat and even if it fails, they do not lose much and they still have the cap space for the 2010 mega free agency.