The McGrady soap opera

Tracy McGrady, who had microfracture surgery on his left knee in February, recently returned to action but was frustrated with his playing time. He eventually took an indefinite leave and he and the team will seek a trade. Read here. And here.

A professional sports player earnings $20 million a year openly demanding for trade? Geez, I hate seeing that. It's really nasty. It happens every now and then and I really hate such thing.

However, as critical as I have been on players playing solely for money, I won't put all the blame on T-Mac.

For sure, McGrady has his own agenda. First, he did not inform the team before his decision to undergo the microfracture sugery. Back in February, he knew that the Rockets are going nowhere and his knee is not healed, so he decided to have the surgery, which normally takes 6 to 12 months to heal (See Jason Kidd, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire), while some never heal (see Penny Hardaway, Chris Webber, Allan Houston). The motive is clear: abandon the team, scratch the season (last year in his contract) and heal, so that he can be back in "full health" (he hoped) this season, last year in his fatty contract, and he can "maximize" (he hoped) his value in the 2010 free agent market.

Flash forward to present, T-Mac thinks he is ready, and would like to have enough playing time to showcase, so that other teams would know how good he is. So he was frustrated with his playing time, a meager 8 minutes a game.

Selfish? Calculating? You bet.

Allegedly, he's far from ready. As Rick Adelman said, "He's coming back from major surgery, he's rehabilitating and who knows when he's going to get there. Right now, he wasn't there." He went on, "I don't think the explosiveness was there. He didn't get to the basket like he used to, he didn't have that first step where he could blow by people."

Should we blame T-Mac? Hell, yeah.

But, oops! This is where the Rockets and Adelman went wrong.

His explosiveness is not there? He lost his first step? I mean, his explosiveness has been LONG GONE. He could no longer blow by people ever since he had that chronic back spasm. He had been relying on his long range jumper ever since he came to Houston. Yes, even before Rick Adelman replacing Jeff Van Gundy as the head coach of the Rockets. Now, Rick Adelman, you are saying that he is not as explosive as before? C'mon, give me a break. 10 months after a microfracture surgery, of course he would be rusty. Nobody can be 100% ready immediately returning from such a major knee surgery. As young as Stoudemire, he was rusty when he came back from microfracture surgery and needed to take more rest.

So Adelman, or the team, id you thinks he is far from ready, why would you want to put him on the floor in the first place? Knowing the risk of re-injuring his surgically repaired knee again, why did you still play him? Either you think he has a shot to play, or you just don't care about whether he will be injured again.

And, why only 8 minutes a game? If you think he is not ready, then why didn't you shut him off completely? Otherwise, if you think he could somehow play, why not let him play more, somewhere close to 20 MPG? What kind of progress did you expect to see in 8 minutes? Alas, he has not yet been warmed up in 8 minutes! To say T-Mac is rusty in 8 minutes of playing time is absolutely insane. OK, you may say that the coach should have seen enough during practice. They knew he was not yet ready. So it doesn't matter whether they played him 8 minutes or not. Again, if that is that case, why did you play him in the first place? I really couldn't comprehend.


Rick Adelman is simply playing the media card. He is trying to portrait T-Mac as a stubborn star player who whines about playing time without fully assessing his own condition. Adelman may be right, but I really could not tell based on the 8 minutes T-Mac played each game. I can tell he is rusty. But how bad he is? I can't tell. How far is he from ready? Can't tell either. Nobody can be rust-free playing 8 minutes a game, in particular someone who had been a starter in the past 9 or 10 years. We "know" T-Mac is not ready based on what Adelman said. To me, there is no hard evidence.

To say Rick Adelman has no personal agenda is a joke. His team overperformed this season. They are 19-13, #7 in the competitive Western Conference as of 29 December 2009. They simply play hard and win games with heart. They beat elite teams by starting a 6'6" Chuck Hayes at center. Man, I really appreciate that. I admire their bravery and confidence. I love their competitive mindset. They are textbook example of teamwork and team spirit. It is the reason why Rick Adelman does not want T-Mac to come back. Adelman knew the return of T-Mac would hurt the surreal team chemistry, and given his ball hogging style and his rustiness, that would hurt the game flow too. The Rockets would not be the same with T-Mac. That, I agree.

But come to think of the big picture. Frankly, where would this year's Rockets go? Luckily they would make the playoffs (if they could manage to continue overpeforming the entire season, which is a big if). But then? The NBA ain't no NCAA Tournament. You hardly see any genuine Cinderella story. As amazing as the 1994 Nuggets or the 2007 Warriors, they did not survive past first round. Look at the West, Lakers and Nuggets just picked up where they left last season, the Mavericks and the Suns regaining their elite status, and the Spurs are just warming up. How could the Rockets beat any of them in a 7-game series? Plus, OKC, currently #9 in the West, has a shot to make the playoffs too. To me, I think OKC has a better chance to make the playoffs than the Rockets.

Playing T-Mac is too risky for Adelman's job. They would be worse than now, and people would blame the coach by bringing back T-Mac too soon. So in order to save his job, Rick Adelman decided to make a huge scheme by playing T-Mac little minutes, showing how rusty he is, and then alienating from him, putting all the blame on him.

Selfish? For sure. You may say he is sacrificing T-Mac for a bigger good. He puts team success before a player's personal interest. But to me, those are all excuses. He is just trying to save his job.

Make no mistake, I am not saying that the Rockets should play T-Mac big minutes. The problem is, I do not have enough information to have a conclusion. The thing I have the most problem, is that the team should not have played T-Mac 8 MPG. Either you played him meaningful minutes, or you simply didn't play him at all. My view is, Rick Adelman and the Houston Rockets totally mishandled the situation.

NBA 2009-2010 Season Preview Part II

This is Part II: The East:

EAST

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Depth Chart:

PG: Maurice Williams / Daniel Gibson
SG: Delonte West / Anthony Carter / Coby Karl
SF: LeBron James / Jamario Moon /
PF: Andersen Varejao / JJ Hickson / Leon Powe / Darnell Jackson
C: Shaquille O'Neal / Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Preview:

I like the addition of Anthony Carter and Jamario Moon. A lot. These two players are extremely useful yet extremely underrated, back to their days in Toronto. We all know the problem of adding Shaq, but as long as his minutes are limited to 25-30, it should be fine. Mike Brown should play Leon Powe more. This is the hungriest team in the league, but that doesn't mean that they would succeed. The Celtics and Magic are real threats.

Player to watch:

LeBron James – how would he respond to the embarrassing loss in the playoffs will define what kind of player he is. If he comes back stronger and better and lead the team to the promised land, he will earn the rep to be compared with MJ and Kobe. Otherwise, he would be just another over-hyped self-centered superstar who has all the talent but not the determination to win it all.


2. Orlando Magic

Depth Chart:

PG: Jameer Nelson / Jason Williams / Anthony Johnson
SG: Vince Carter / Mickael Pietrus / JJ Redick
SF: Rashard Lewis / Matt Barnes
PF: Ryan Anderson / Brandon Bass
C: Dwight Howard / Marcin Gortat / Adonal Foyle

Preview:

I hate them letting Turkoglu go, and I hate the addition of Vince Carter, cuz he is overpaid and overrated. Vince will flop in the playoffs and they will be beaten by the Celtics or the Cavs. But the addition of Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass is flat out brilliant. Only is that without Turk they could not cause mismatch to opponents, which was their most powerful weapon last year. But they are still one of the best three teams in the East.

Player to watch:

Ryan Anderson – he played well in New Jersey. With a starting role in a quality team, I can see him getting a breakout season this year.


3. Boston Celtics

Depth Chart:

PG: Rajon Rondo / Eddie House
SG: Ray Allen / Marquis Daniels / Tony Allen / J. R. Giddens
SF: Paul Pierce / Bill Walker
PF: Kevin Garnett / Glen Davis / Brian Scalabrine
C: Kendrick Perkins / Rasheed Wallace / Sheldon Williams

Preview:

People say they are old, Ray Ray will deteriorate, KG is not healthy, Rasheed is chemistry killer blah blah blah. I'd say they are more determined than ever. The Big Three knew their dates are numbered and this year might very well be their last chance to win it all. I'm skeptical about adding Rasheed Wallace but nonetheless a calculated gamble for them. If I have to pick, I will pick them to win the East, because they have the best chemistry.

Player to watch:

Kevin Garnett – just one question: is he 100%?


4. Atlanta Hawks

Depth Chart:

PG: Mike Bibby / Jeff Teague (r)
SG: Joe Johnson / Jamal Crawford
SF: Marvin Williams / Maurice Evans
PF: Josh Smith / Joe Smith / Othello Hunter
C: Al Horford / Zaza Pachulia / Jason Collins / Randolph Morris

Preview:

The East is boring, as the top four teams are exactly the same as last season. The addition of Jamal Crawford is nice, but I don't think it makes any real difference. They will remain the 4th best team in the East and will exit in 2nd round. This team has peaked IMHO.

Player to watch:

Joe Johnson – if you follow the news closely, you should know that JJ will also become a free agent in 2010. Yes, contract year. What would he do in order to earn a big contract amongst a pool of talent that includes LBJ, Wade and Bosh?


5. Chicago Bulls

Depth Chart:

PG: Derrick Rose / Kirk Hinrich
SG: John Salmons / Jannero Pargo
SF: Luol Deng / Derrick Byars
PF: Tyrus Thomas / Taj Gibson (r) / James Johnson (r)
C: Joakim Noah / Brad Miller / Aaron Gray / Jerome James

Preview:

Everybody loves the Bulls, just like the Blazers in the West. I love the Baby Bulls too. I think John Paxson did a good job in getting John Salmons last year, and sensibly let go Ben Gordon. No, they are still undersized in the frontcourt. But their main problem? The clueless Vinny Del Negro. There's no way they can be good with Coach Vinny. Fire Vinny!

Player to watch:

Derrick Rose – the reigning ROY. Can he make the leap to stardom this season? I'd say yes.


6. Washington Wizards

Depth Chart:

PG: Gilbert Arenas / Randy Foye / Mike James / Jarvis Crittenton
SG: DeShawn Stevenson / Nick Young
SF: Caron Butler / Mike Miller / Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison (inj.) / Andray Blatche / Paul Davis
C: Brandan Haywood / JaVale McGee / Fabricio Oberto

Preview:

This is my dark horse in the East. I think they would be good. Flip Saunders is a better coach than you thought. And with Butler, Foye, Mike Miller, they have a solid rotation at SG/SF. Agent 0 is back, but too bad Jamison is injured (just a few weeks). Blatche is good enough to hold the fort. I've never liked Agent Zero but I like the chance of this team.

Player to watch:

Randy Foye – he has been overshadowed by Brandon Roy ever since he joined the league. That is not fair IMHO. Injuries plus lousy management made him look lousier than he actually is. He will be good under Flip Saunders. I guarantee it.


7. Philadelphia Sixers

Depth Chart:

PG: Lou Williams / Royal Ivey / Jrue Holiday (r)
SG: Andre Iguodala / Willie Green
SF: Thaddeus Young / Jason Kapono / Rodney Carney
PF: Elton Brand / Jason Smith
C: Samuel Dalembert / Marreese Speights / Primoz Brezec

Preview:

Elton Brand has a huge chip on his shoulder. But the loss of Andre Miller will be huge. They don't have a real PG and their SF is weak. I am not sure how they can advance past the 1st round amidst the improved Eastern Conference.

Player to watch:

Elton Brand – in my mind, he is always overrated. He played well for lousy teams and the only playoffs experience he had is the improbable playoffs runs of the Clippers in 2006. Personally I want him to fail, because I hate what he did to the Clippers (and Baron Davis) when he jumped ship to Philly. No land for opportunist.


8. Miami Heat

Depth Chart:

PG: Mario Chambers / Chris Quinn / Carlos Arroyo
SG: Dwyane Wade / Daequan Cook / Yakhouba Diawara
SF: Quentin Richardson / James Jones / Dorell Wright
PF: Michael Beasley / Udonis Haslem / Joel Anthony / Shavlik Randolph
C: Jermaine O'Neal / Jamaal Magloire

Preview:

They did absolutely nothing in the summer (except swapping the Matrix with Quentin Richardson). This is the same one-man show. The team will go as far as Wade's body goes. They are in the “waiting for the 2010 sweepstake” mode. Just like the Knicks and the Nets. But they have Wade, so they will still make the playoffs.

Player to watch:

Michael Beasley – fresh back from rehab, let's see whether this talented young man can play up to expectation. Shifting to his natural position at PF should help.


9. Toronto Raptors

Depth Chart:

PG: Jose Calderon / Jarrett Jack / Marcus Banks
SG: DeMar DeRazon (r) / Marco Belinelli / Quincy Douby
SF: Hedo Turkoglu / Antoine Wright
PF: Chris Bosh / / Amir Johnson / Reggie Evans
C: Andrea Bargnani / Rasho Nesterovic / Patrick O'Bryant

Preview:

You know what, I like this year's Raptors. Turkoglu will provide them versatility and improvise offense. Belinelli should play better now with countryman Bargnani. Rookie DeRazon looks promising. These, plus Calderon and Bosh, and the newly improved Bargnani, I think they have a good chance to make the playoffs.

Player to watch:

DeMar DeRazon – people says this rookie will win the starting job over Belinelli. I would like to see how good he is.


10. Detroit Pistons

Depth Chart:

PG: Rodney Stuckey / Will Bynum / Chucky Atkins
SG: Richard Hamilton / Ben Gordon
SF: Tayshuan Prince / Austin Daye (r)
PF: Charlie Villanueva / Jason Maxiell / Chris Wilcox
C: Kwame Brown / Ben Wallace

Preview:

After so many years, the Pistons finally has a new look. I am still skeptical about the $90 million committed to Ben Gordon and Villanueva, but at least Joe Dumars has the balls to make moves, instead staying pat with a worsening and ageing team. But Kwame Brown starting at C? You kiddin' me? In rebuilding mode meaning that they will likely miss the playoffs.

Player to watch:

Rodney Stuckey – without Allen Iverson, Stuckey finally has the full time starting job. While Billups' memory are still fresh, can he win the fans' heart?

11. Charlotte Bobcats

Depth Chart:

PG: Raymond Felton / D.J. Augustin
SG: Stephen Graham / Raja Bell (inj.) / Flip Murray / Gerald Henderson (r)
SF: Gerald Wallace / Vladimir Radmanovic
PF: Boris Diaw / Derrick Brown / Alexis Ajinca
C: Tysan Chandler / Nazr Mohammed / DeSagana Diop

Preview:

They were desperate for scoring but due to financial constraint they did not address such issue during offseason. Raja Bell's injuury just put things worse. Or the swap of Okafor for Tysan Chandler. Even the coach is Larry Brown, I just don't think they can make any progress this year. Question is, how many games will MJ attend?

Player to watch:

Tysan Chandler - I miss those Chris Paul-to-Tysan Chandler alley-oops. Can Raymond Felton throw those alley-oops passes like CP3? Guess not.


12. Indiana Pacers

Depth Chart:

PG: T.J. Ford / Earl Watson / Travis Diener
SG: Dahntay Jones / Brandon Rush / Luther Head
SF: Danny Granger / Mike Dunleavy Jr.
PF: Troy Murphy / Josh McRoberts / Tyler Hansbrough (r)
C: Jeff Foster / Roy Hibbert / Solomon Jones

Preview:

I have almost forgotten the Pacers in the past couple of years. They were so quiet in the past few years. They didn't do much in offseason and retain most of the players. What the heck Larry Bird is thinking? If you couldn't do it last season, why on earth do they think they can do it this season? This team certainly has no identity.

Player to watch:

Tyler Hansbrough – with Jeff Foster sidelined, Hansbrough should have more PT than expected. I always think he's a bust. We'll see.


13. Milwaukee Bucks

Depth Chart:

PG: Luke Ridnour / Brandan Jennings (r) / Roko Ukic
SG: Michael Redd / Charlie Bell / Jodie Meeks (r)
SF: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute / Carlos Delfino / Ersan Ilyasova
PF: Hakim Warrick / Kurt Thomas / Joe Alexander
C: Andrew Bogut / Dan Gadzuric / Francisco Elson

Preview:

Another team in cost-saving mode. They did not blink or shed a tear losing 60% of his starting lineup (Ramon Sessions, Villanueva and Richard Jefferson.) Good luck to all the Milwaukee fans. Redd is wasted in this cold state. Alas, he should have gone to Cleveland last year.

Player to watch:

Hakim Warrick – he played well with limited PT. Now that Villanueva is gone, will he make further improvement?


14. New York Knicks

PG: Chris Duhon / Nate Robinson
SG: Wilson Chandler / Larry Hughes / Toney Douglas (r) / Cuttino Mobley
SF: Jared Jeffries / Danilo Gallinari
PF: Al Harrington / Marcus Landry
C: David Lee / Darko Milicic / Jordan Hill (r) / Eddy Curry

Preview:

A complete chaos. No leadership, no offense, no defense, no size, no nothing. They are waiting for the coming of LBJ in 2010. Good luck. Just beware, if they could not move Eddy Curry this season, they will not have the salary cap space to sign two superstars (including LBJ). Without another superstar, why on earth would LBJ wanna go to Big Apple, playing along, err, Danilo Gallinari and Darko? Because of David Latterman? Or Derek Jeter? And who would want Eddy Curry at such a price? Please, get real, New Yorkers.

Player to watch:

David Lee – poor David Lee, he's such a good guy with terrific working ethics. A fan favorite, but only got a 1-year contract. He is perfect to excel under D'Antoni's system.


15. New Jersey Nets

Depth chart:

PG: Devin Harris / Rafer Alston / Keyon Dooling
SG: Courtney Lee / Jarvis Hayes / Chris Douglas-Roberts / Terence Williams (r)
SF: Bobby Simmons / Eduardo Najera / Trenton Hassell
PF: Yi Jianlian / Tony Battie / Sean Williams
C: Brook Lopez / Josh Boone

Preview:

Another “praying” team, as in “praying for LBJ to join us and we will be almighty and live forever and ever”. The Nets is even worse in terms of talent. But three good things about the Nets (over the Knicks): 1. they will have the full cap space to sign two superstars at max contract next season, and 2. they have Devin Harris. 3. they will have a deep pocket Russian owner. The last advantage is that they probably will win this year's lottery. Good luck, Brooklyn.

Player to watch:

Devin Harris - with Vince gone, he is not the official leader in this lousy team. Let's see how he would respond to that.

NBA 2009-2010 Season Preview Part I

Yo! Long time no see. It's a bit late, but nonetheless, my lengthy NBA 2009-2010 season preview.

I assume you should have read enough about all the teams so I won't be writing the obvious, like the risk of taking Ron Artest, the good and bad of getting Shaq etc. Instead, I will try to be concise and draw your attention to certain points that I consider worth mentioning, or points that others have overlooked. So here we go, Part I: The West:

WEST

1. LA Lakers

Depth Chart:

PG: Derek Fisher / Jordon Farmar
SG: Kobe Bryant / Sasha Vujacic / Shannon Brown
SF: Ron Artest / Luke Walton / Adam Morrison
PF: Pau Gasol / Lamar Odom / Josh Powell
C: Andrew Bynum / D.J. Mbenga

Preview:

Last year's champion is #1 by default in my preview. Ron Ron in La La Land seems a perfect storm coming. Please stop all the MJ-Rodman/Kobe-Artest comparison. Kobe ain't no MJ, and Artest ain't no Rodman. I don't think Kobe (or even Phil Jackson)can do any magic to turn Artest into a useful player like what MJ did to Rodman. Artest's problem is more on court than off court. He thinks he's a franchise player. Rodman never did. Rodman just thought he's best rebounder in the world. And he was. But Artest certainly is NOT a franchise player. Can't see them repeat this year.

Player to watch:

Ron Artest – He was the player to watch last season in Houston. And that include any mayhem to watch.


2. San Antonio Spurs

Depth Chart:

PG: Tony Parker / George Hill
SG: Manu Ginobili / Roger Mason
SF: Richard Jefferson / Michael Finley
PF: Tim Duncan / Antonio McDyess / DeJuan Blair (r)
C: Matt Bonner /Theo Ratliff / Ian Mahinmi

Preview:

One of the best off-seasons the Spurs ever had for years. They got better and younger. But don't get too carried away. Can McDyess and RJ make a smooth transition? Under the Spurs system, RJ will be more in the shooting and facilitating role than slashing, where he excels. Plus they need to mesh together. Regardless, all it matters in the end is the health of the Big Three.

Player to watch:

Manu Ginobili – just curious, how many times can he roll his ankles before they completely blow up?


3. Portland Trailblazers

Depth Chart:

PG: Steve Blake / Andre Miller / Jerryd Bayless
SG: Brandon Roy / Rudy Fernandez
SF: Martell Webster / Travis Outlaw / Nicolas Batum (inj.)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Juwan Howard
C: Greg Oden / Joel Przybilla

Preview:

Everybody loves the Blazers. Like the Spurs, they had a great off-season. Better, Oden is back and looks healthy. Again, don't get too carried away. Remember, they looked terrific towards the end of last year's regular season, but then the playoffs? Such a nightmare. This is a red flag. However great he is, I just don't think Nate McMillan is the coach that can lead them to the next level.

Player to watch:

Greg Oden – Two years from drafting, so how? We have seen how great Kevin Durant is, show us your true self, Greg.


4. Denver Nuggets

Depth Chart:

PG: Chauncey Billups / Anthony Carter / Ty Lawson (r)
SG: J.R. Smith / Aaron Afflalo
SF: Carmelo Anthony / Renaldo Blackman
PF: Kenyon Martin / Chris Anderson
C: Nene / Malik Allen

Preview:

I think last year's Nuggets overachieved. I don't think they can repeat last year's success. George Karl will soon lose his player's respect. The positive impact of Billups will gradually wear out in the second season. Losing Dahntay Jones will hurt their defense, although Afflalo should compensate the scoring. This team does not have enough depth to compete with the Lakers, Spurs or even the Blazers.

Player to watch:

J. R. Smith – he is forever a mystery. During the last playoffs, he played like the best player in the team; on some nights, he may just kill the team's chance by shooting 30 3s a game. Will he ever be consistent?


5. Dallas Mavericks

Depth Chart:

PG: Jason Kidd / Jose Juan Barea / Rodrigue Beaubois (r)
SG: Quinton Ross / Jason Terry / Josh Howard (inj.) / Matt Carroll
SF: Shawn Marion / Shawne Williams
PF: Dirk Nowitzki / Tim Thomas / Kris Humphries
C: Erick Dampier / Drew Gooden

Preview:

Sure the Mavs have improved their roster. The pick-up of the Matrix and Drew Gooden is nice. But all rest on Josh Howard. JH is critical to the success of the team. Without him, it would be hard for them to become contender, no matter how great Kidd, Terry, Matrix and Dirk are. They are ranked #5 as long as Josh Howard would be back in a month's time.

Player to watch:

Shawn Marion – didn't see him play for awhile, ever since he left the Suns. How good is he right now?


6. New Orleans Hornet

Depth Chart:

PG: Chris Paul / Bobby Brown / Darrell Collison (r)
SG: Morris Peterson / Devin Brown
SF: Julian Wright / Peja Stojakovic / James Posey
PF: David West / Darius Songaila / Ike Diogu
C: Emeka Okafor / Hilton Armstrong

Preview:

This team is in cost-saving mode. So do not expect the owner to address the depth issue on the wing positions. They not only lost Chandler and Rasual Butler, but also considerable of athleticism along with them. It is sad watching such a promising team self-destruct like that. Yeah, blame the owner.

Player to watch:

Emeka Okafor – not as athletic as Chandler, so don't expect rains of alley-oops from him. On the other side, how can CP3 help him to improve?


7. Phoenix Suns

Depth Chart:

PG: Steve Nash / Goran Dragic
SG: Jason Richardson / Leandro Barbosa
SF: Grant Hill / Jared Dudley / Alando Tucker
PF: Amare Stoudemire / Louis Amundson / Earl Clark (r)
C: Channing Frye / Robin Lopez

Preview:

I don't like this year's Suns. I think the team had a serious identity crisis after D'Antoni left. Steve Kerr wanted a traditional, defense oriented team but the players think otherwise. Shaq experiment failed completely and now they were trying to restore run-n-gun offense. But where are the sharp shooters and athletic slashers which are instrumental to the SSOL offense? I guess Grant Hill couldn't even get past the mid-court in seven seconds!

Player to watch:

Channing Frye – Frye has never been a full-time starter in his entire career. Now he has the chance, and he is in a good system that he fits in well. If he can't perform in Phoenix, he will never have another chance.


8. Utah Jazz

Depth Chart:

PG: Deron Williams / Ronnie Price / Eric Maynor (r)
SG: Ronnie Brewer / Kyle Korver (inj.)
SF: Andrei Kirilenko/ CJ Miles / Matt Harpring
PF: Carlos Boozer / Paul Millsap
C: Mehmet Okur / Kosta Koufos / Kyrylo Fesenko

Preview:

This squad had peaked in the 2007 Playoffs (Western Conference Finals). Now, for Boozer, given his impending free agency this coming summer, he will likely try hard to perform, but do so at the expense of the entire team's chemistry and success. Yes I hate Boozer. And I have not mentioned their lack of shooters.

Player to watch:

Deron Williams - too many people saying that Deron Williams is underrated and now he is getting a bit overrated. Make no mistake, I like him. But he is wasted in this Jazz team. His All-Star selection is long due.



9. LA Clippers

Depth Chart:

PG: Baron Davis / Sebastian Telfair
SG: Eric Gordon / Rasual Butler / Mardy Collins
SF: Al Thornton / Ricky Davis / Steve Novak
PF: Blake Griffin (r) (inj.) / Craig Smith / Brian Skinner
C: Chris Kaman / Marcus Camby / DeAndre Jordan

Preview:

Bold pick: the Clippers is my dark horse in the West. I know, Blake Griffin is hit by the Clippers curse and will be out for at least 6-8 weeks. And I know their coach is the notorious Mike Dunleavy Sr. But even without Griffin, BD + Eric Gordon + Al Thornton + Cmaby + Kaman is solid enough. Rasual Butler is underrated, so is Craig Smith. Of course, at the end of the day, whether the Clips would succeed entirely depend on whether Baron Davis want to play hard or not.

Player to watch:

Blake Griffin – Andrew Bynum broke his knee cap and sat out nearly 50 games in 2007. So 6-8 weeks is an optimistic estimate for Griffin. Nonetheless, he remains the rookie to watch. Fingers crossed.


10. Oklahoma Thunder

Depth Chart:

PG: Russell Westbrook / Shaun Livingston
SG: Thabo Sefolosha / James Harden (r) / Kyle Weaver
SF: Kevin Durant /Ryan Bowen
PF: Jeff Green / Nick Collison
C: Nenad Krstic / Etan Thomas / B.J. Mullens (r)

Preview:

This should be one of the most entertaining teams in the league. They will not win many games, but will be as fun to watch as hell. It should be some “zero-defense, shoot-it-and-no-question-ask” type of games. They are young and fearless. Expect Westbrook, Durant and Green to pile up big stats, and the team ends up with 30-35 wins. This, however, is good to be 10th in the weakened West.

Player to watch:

Kevin Durant - #5 rank in fantasy draft? Is he up to that? Can he make the All-Star Game? We'll see.


11. Houston Rockets

Depth Chart:

PG: Aaron Brooks / Kyle Lowry
SG: Trevor Ariza / Tracy McGrady (inj.) / Jermaine Taylor
SF: Shane Battier / Chase Budinger
PF: Luis Scola / Carl Landry / Brian Cook
C: Chuck Hayes / Yao Ming (inj.)

Preview:

I am not sure whether I have put the Rockets too high or too low here. Yao will miss the entire season. And no matter what y'all say, I am certain that T-Mac will play not more than 50 games this season. He will take his time to heal in order to preserve his free agent value. And how can they survive in the West with a frontcourt (Battier, Scola, Hayes, Landry) that average 6'8”?

Player to watch:

Trevor Ariza – he's the single Laker that I liked last year. No, I don't think he is a franchise player, but probably one of the best complementary 2nd/3rd banana in a championship team. Can he take up the load and be the leader? Although I want to say yes but my conscious says otherwise.


12. Golden State Warriors

Depth Chart:

PG: Stephen Curry(r) / C.J. Watson / Acie Law / Speedy Claxton
SG: Monta Ellis (inj) / Anthony Morrow / Kelenna Azubuike
SF: Stephen Jackson / Devean George
PF: Corey Maggette / Anthony Randolph / Brandan Wright
C: Andris Biedrins / Ronny Turiaf / Mikke Moore

Preview:

With Nellie, expect at least 20 different starting lineups and once again rank bottom in assist and miss the playoffs. Same old Warriors.

Player to watch:

Stephen Curry – he won the starting job for now. I liked him during the NCAA Tourney run in 2008. He is fearless and has the ability to play PG in the pro level. Let's hope Nellie would not kill his confidence after 100 times of roster reshuffle.


13. Memphis Grizzlies

Depth Chart:

PG: Mike Conley Jr. / Allen Iverson / Marcus Williams
SG: O.J. Mayo / Marko Jaric
SF: Rudy Gay / DeMarre Carroll (r) / Sam Young (r)
PF: Zach Randolph / Darrell Arthur
C: Marc Gasol / Hasheem Thabeet (r) / Steven Hunter

Preview:

This is a promising team that lacks leadership. No discipline at all. Now with Iverson and Z-Bo, this team is going to be more selfish. With such a poor management, it is hard to imagine them to get to the playoffs any time soon. It will be forever a mystery why Iverson joined such a lousy team. I know they offered him the best money, but he is not exactly short of cash, is he? So why? WHY?

Player to watch:

Marc Gasol – he might not be as talented as his big brother, but I am betting on him having a breakout season in his sophomore year.


14. Minnesota Timberwolves

Depth Chart:
PG: Ramon Sessions / Jonny Flynn (r)
SG: Damien Wilkins / Wayne Ellington / Sasha Pavlovic
SF: Corey Brewer / Oleksiy Pecherov
PF: Ryan Gomes / Brian Cardinal / Kevin Love (inj.)
C: Al Jefferson / Nathan Jawai / Ryan Hollins / Mark Blount

Preview:

They should have gone higher had Kevin Love not been injured. The addition of Sessions and Flynn is good, but they sorely need outside scoring. Wayne Ellington won't contribute right away. More people will be interested in how they are going to deal with the Ricky Rubio situation.

Player to watch:

Jonny Flynn – everyone is high on him. But exactly how good is he?


15. Sacramento Kings

Depth Chart:
PG: Tyreke Evans (r) / Beno Udrih
SG: Kevin Martin / Desmond Mason / Francisco Garcia (inj.)
SF: Andres Nocioni / Omri Casspi (r)
PF: Jason Thompson / Donte Greene / Sean May
C: Spencer Hawes /Kenny Thomas

Preview:

A consensus worst team in the league. Nothing to expect from them. None. Nada. People is focusing on whether the Maloof Brothers will be moving this team to cities like Kansas City or even Las Vegas.

Player to watch:

Tyreke Evans – It's a tradition to focus on rookie watch for lousy teams. Another rookie starting at PG. Though not a traditional playmaker, he has the license to do whatever he wants. So let's see what kind of stats he can pile up.

Preview of my season preview

Yes, it's not yet the time to write my season preview. Yet, the recent movements of certain teams has made me write something. We all know how bad the economy of the US is, and likely would be, in the coming months. Revenue of the league is expected to drop, which will directly result in a drop in both the salary cap and the luxury tax threshold. Nonetheless, we saw teams that simply ignored the gloomy economy and made huge salary addition. Of course, many more teams prefer to stay put, or worse, trim down salary, to deal with recession. Another huge factor affecting this year's player movement is the impeding 2010 free agency, which will feature super big names like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and yes, Kobe Bryant. Some of the moves make you applaud, while some just make you scratch your head real hard till it bleeds.

Anyway, here are some teams that have caught all the attentions during the off-seasons. You may treat it as a teaser for my coming up season preview:

Dallas Mavericks - nobody is more active than Mark Cuban. First he traded for Shawn "the Matrix" Marion; then he extended the contract of J-Kidd; then he used the full mid-level exception to make an offer to Magics' Gortat only for the Magic to match the offer; how about the signing of Drew Gooden? Or the signing of Tim Thomas? Mind you, the Mavs made all these addition of talents without giving any of the core of Kidd-Terry-Howard-Nowitzki. With such a roster, how will they rank among all the elite Western teams?

Cleveland Cavliers - ok, they got Shaq, by giving up the washed up Ben Wallace. They stole Anthony Parker from Toronto, and Jamario Moon from Miami. Parker and Moon precisely address their weakness in perimeter defense. Again, they managed to keep Mo Williams, Delonte West, Big Z Ilgauskas (and LBJ). GM Danny Ferry was given the mandate to spend whatever he wants to put up with a roster that (hopefully) can convince LBJ to stay in Cleveland. Well, what is more convincing than winning a championship. But can they do that over the Magic, the Lakers and the Celtics (if KG is back 100%)?

Orlando Magic - frankly, I think they are a mess. On paper, replacing Turkoglu with Vince Carter makes sense. But they just don't know Vince. For sure he will play hard in his first year with the Magic (or any team), but he's just overrated, especially now he's 32 and has lost most of his athleticism. Unlike Turkoglu, this is not a guy that you can trust at clutch time. Anyway, they matched Mavericks' ridiculous offer for Gortat, and they also added Brandan Bass and Ryan Anderson in the front court. This is not the team that went to 2009 Finals. But with so many new additions, the Magic is definitely one of the teams worth watching this year.

Toronto Raptors - I think it's a good move that they got rid of the Matrix. But letting go Anthony Parker? I'm no so sure. I know they signed a fatty contract with Hedo Turkoglu, but I always think that Anthony Parker is a hugely underrated role player. I am not saying that he's better than Turk, but for a substantially lower salary, couldn't the Raptors re-sign Parker and add some more talents, e.g. to fill the SG void? With such roster change, can they convince Chris Bosh to stay next year? How good is rookie DeMar DeRozan?

Los Angeles Lakers - I have said before, IMHO, it's a bad move that they swapped Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. Artest may be more talented, but with a team featuring Kobe, Pau Gasol and Odom, they don't really need someone who needs the ball to operate. But it is always worth following a team that features Ron Artest. In Hollywood, no less. When is he going to release his new rap album anyway? When will he punch Kobe's face? In October? Or in exhibition games?

Detroit Pistons - Bye bye Rasheed Wallace and Allen Iverson. Welcome Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon. They spent some $90m on these two free agents. Are they up to their price tag? Exactly, how good is Ben Gordon other than scoring? Is Villanueva too soft or what? Joe Dumars clearly does not want to join the 2010 superstar sweepstakes and decided to spend all his salary cap on two borderline all-star. What is he thinking? Does he know something that we don't know?

Minnesota Timberwolves - For sure this is not the team that can win championship. Or getting to the playoffs. However, this team is full of mystery that you can't help but keep tracking their movements. First is about the coach. Kevin McHale is fired. They have been interviewing 100 candidate and are still not yet decided. What are they going to do? Secondly, they drafted TWO PGs (Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio) in the draft and I really don't know how they can be competitive should they fail to find suitors for etierh Rubio or Flynn. And then there's an undersized SG Wayne Ellington from UNC. What would the team lok like? And they traded away Sebastian Telfair, Craig Smtih and Mark Madsen for Quentin Richardson. Err excuse me, Q-Rich has been battling with countless injuries since you-know-when. And they don't have any depth in the frontcourt after Q-Rich, Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. What the F are they thinking?

San Antonio Spurs - yes, y'all know me. How can I leave out my favorite team in the preview of preview? let's see, they let go Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. What do they get? Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and Theo Ratliff. Do I need to go further? Yes, they stole Richard Jefferson from Milwaukee simply because the Bucks owner wants to trim down salary. I think the Spurs' success this year really hinges on the health of the Big Three, cuz the supporting cast is already too much for the opponents to handle.

Anyway, that is it right now. Stay tuned until I deliver the season preview to you, likely in late September.

A brief look at the 2009 NBA Draft

Let's take a look at one of the weakest drafts in recent years:

1. LA Clippers – Blake Griffin, 6'10”, PF, Oklahoma

No surprise here. He's the most established bona fide talent with good size. The Clips didn't screw up this pick, but it will be interesting to see how the Clippers play Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby and Griffin together. Hey, if Randolph loves to shoot the 3 that much, why don't they just start him at SG?

2. Memphis – Hasheem Thabeet, 7'3”, C, Uconn

As expected. Again, I'm not sold on Thabeet. I think his D is overrated. I think the Mutombo comparison is a joke. I don't think he will flourish in the league. He has a big chance to be a bust. But then, you can't really teach 7'3”. It would be interesting to see him play along with another 7-footer, Marc Gasol.

3. Oklahoma City – James Harden, 6'5”, SG, Arizona State

This is a safe bet. Apparently they are satisfied with Russell Westbrook at PG and therefore passed on Ricky Rubio. Harden fills their need at SG. Harden played badly in the Tourney and this probably is a sign of weakness. I don't think Harden will be great. Remember you read it here first.

4. Sacramento – Tyreke Evans, 6'5”, SG, Memphis

What the heck are the Kings thinking? They need a PG and they didn't pick Rubio? They've got Kevin Martin and Rashad McCants at SG already, why do they want another SG? Oh, they got Sergio Rodriguez from the Blazers via trade. But do they really think that Rodriguez is better than Rubio?

5. Minnesota (from Washington) – Ricky Rubio, 6'5”, PG, Spain

OK, the Wolves got 4 first round picks and here's the first one. They need a PG and they picked the best PG on board. They should thank the Kings for that. We have seen how good Rubio is in the Olympics. I especially like his game-making ability and his size.

6. Minnesota – Jonny Flynn, 6'1”, PG, Syracuse

The Wolves strangely picked 2 PGs in a row. While it's not announced yet, likely they will trade either one of them. Flynn is a flashy PG and people compare him with Telfair. Oops, that comparison doesn't look good to me.

7. Golden State – Stephen Curry, 6'3”, PG, Davidson

I like Stephen Curry since last year's NCAA Tourney. He's fearless and has superb leadership. Though Davidson did not make the Tourney this year, Curry has gradually developed playmaking skills and has silently transformed into a PG. The Knicks love him and he loves the Knicks, only that he is going to GSW. Too bad. He's NBA ready but he has to compete PT with Monta Ellis, Speedy Claxton, Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson, CJ Watson, Acie Law, Azubuike, Belinelli and Anthony Morrow. Did I miss anyone?

UPDATE: ESPN reports that the Suns and the Warriors are discussing a possible trade of Amare Stoudemire for Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright and Curry. If that is the case, Curry would be a good protege to Steve Nash.

8. New York – Jordan Hill, 6'10”, PF, Arizona

So the Knicks failed to get the coveted Curry. Jordan Hill is actually quite a decent consolation prize. An atheltic forward who is good at rebounding, Jordan Hill would be a safe fall back plan should David Lee walk.

9. Toronto – DeMar DeRozan, 6'6”, SG, USC

Quick and athletic, people says he excels in transitional games. Good if the Raptors really decide to push the ball. A bit raw but has huge upside. GM Brian Colangelo has liked him for long. BTW, I really hate the trend of getting all the DeXXXX as first name. This is worse, “De” went in both first name and surname. Sick. I mean, you ain't no French, are you?

10. Milwaukee – Brandon Jennings, 6'2”, PG, Italy

Background info: Brandon Jennings skipped college and went to play for Roma in Italy last year. It is rumored that he cannot pass SAT. Anyway, he was hailed as one of the best PGs in the country before he left for Europe, however his stint with Roma did not impress people. His injury concern also scares some GMs away. Ultra quick and a big time scorer. But I just don't like kids dodging or failing SAT and skipped college. He needs to compete PT with Ramon Sessions and Luke Ridnour.

11. New Jersey – Terrence Williams, 6'6”, SG, Louisville

The Nets traded away Vince Carter and need replacement. One of the best athletes in the draft. But the problem is, he's a senior. This means he's either a late boomer or that he's really not that talented as nobody wanted him in the past 3 years. I'm more leaning on the latter. I'm not saying that I'm against “Stay In School”, but I seldom see a senior ended up becoming a bona fide star. The only exception may be Shane Battier, who is a real special and terrific player probably will never be voted as an all-star.

12. Charlotte – Gerald Henderson, 6'5”, SG, Duke

Here's the scout report: athletic shooting guard with versatile all-round game, smart and unselfish. He's from Duke. A guy who plays the right way. Yes, a perfect Larry Brown's guy, makes me remember of Raja Bell and Igoudala. He should fit in well in Larry Brown's system. His name already looks boring to me.

13. Indiana – Tyler Hansbrough, 6'10”, PF, UNC

The first Tar Heel picked in this draft. Again, he's a senior, which raises the red flag. He's tough, physical, but let's face it, he's not that talented. Doesn't look like a star to me, but should be able to contribute right away. Talking about the Pacers, I found that Larry Bird is conservative in draft picks, always opts for college stars and proven players. He likes to go with the consensus and seldom takes risks. Not sure it's good or not for a GM.

14. Phoenix – Earl Clark, 6'10”, SF, Louisville

Like I said, given the Amre-Biedrins trade is pending, it's a huge unknown for the Suns. Clark is a superb athlete, have potential. But a 6'10” SF? A bit too tall for me. Anyway, Grant Hill is old and the Suns need someone to spell him at SF.

15. Detroit – Austin Daye, 6'11”, SF, Gonzaga

Daye was projected to be a second rounder but Joe Dumars surprised everyone and pick him at #15. Again, 6'11” playing at SF doesn't sound right to me. Just checked his weight, 192 lb. Wow, 6'11” but 192 lb? Does he have any mustle at all?

16. Chicago – James Johnson, 6'8”, PF, Wake Forest

It is said that the Bulls had wanted James Johnson for a while. He's athletic, but his game is raw, and he's a tweener between SF/PF. We will see.

17. Philadelphia – Jrue Holiday, 6'4”, PG, UCLA

He is ultra talented, but also very raw. People said he would be a top-5 if he goes to the draft next year. Too bad he chose to enter this year's draft. Probably the top 3 PG in the pick in terms of talent (along with Rubio and Jennings), it's a big steal (or gamble) for the Sixers. He's definitely a work-in-progress though.

18. Minnesota (from Miami, traded to Denver) – Ty Lawson, 6'1”, PG, UNC

Another Tar Heel picked in the first round. Great leadership and good fundamentals. He helped the Tar Heel to win the Tourney. The only short fall is that he's a bit undersized (some reports say he's just 5'11”). A good backup for Billups, who currently has none.

19. Atlanta – Jeff Teague, 6'2”, PG, Wake Forest

No, he ain't no his alumni Chris Paul. He's a scoring PG, some said he's more an undersized SG rather than a pure PG. Not an ideal replacement for Bibby. If the Hawks fail to re-sign Bibby, once again they will have no pure PG, just like what they were before they got Bibby.

20. Utah – Eric Maynor, 6'3”, PG, VA Commonwealth

Another PG. Another senior. Well, a backup for Deron Williams.

21. New Orleans – Darren Collison, 6'2”, PG, UCLA

Another PG. Another senior. 6'2”, 166 lb. Another small guard for the Hornets? Well, Westbrook played off the bench last year and yet was drafted before Collison one year ago. Collison is steady, but upside is really limited. A career backup guy.

22. Portland (from Dallas) – Victor Claver, 6'11”, SF, Spain

The Blazers are packed with young players, so they go the Spurs way: picking a European player who has potential, let him play in Europe for a couple of years first. A good tactic.

23. Sacramento (from Houston) – Omri Casspi, 6'9”, SF Israel

Will be the first Israeli player in NBA history. People compare him with Nocioni, and he will back up Nocioni. Good.

24. Dallas (from Portand, traded to OKC) – B.J. Mullens, 7'1”, C, Ohio State

Finally another center picked in the draft. They said OKC's GM Presti has liked Mullens for long, but he remains a huge unknown and is a risky pick for them.

25. Oklahoma City (from San Antonio, traded to DAL) – Rodrigue Beaubois, 6'2”, PG, France

Bonjour! A PG from French? But he ain't no Tony Parker. He's quite undeveloped and likely will stay in France for a while.

26. Chicago (from Denver via OKC) – Tai Gibson, 6'10”, PF, USC

OK, I know nothing about him. But 6'10 and 214 lb, hmm another skinny PF for the Bulls?

27. Memphis (from Orlando) – DeMarre Carroll, 6'8”, PF, Missouri

Another DeXXX. Sick. Tough and energetic, a role player material.

28. Minnesota (from Boston) – Wayne Ellington, 6'5”, SG, UNC

OK, the third and final Tar Heel in the first round. He hit quite some clutch shots in the Tourney. An established shooter who can do not much else. People fear that he might be another JJ Redick.

29. LA Lakers (traded to NYK) – Toney Douglas, 6'2”, SG, Florida State

No idea. The Lakers doesn't want no rookie, probably to save money to re-sign Odom and/or Ariza.

30. Cleveland – Christian Eyenga, 6'6”, SF, Congo

He's from Congo but plays in Spain. A teammate of Rubio. Words are, the Cavs will go Spurs way by letting Eyenga play in Spain for a few years before bringing him to the US.

That is it for the first round. Overall not much surprise, not much drama, and not many trades too. The only highlight is that two supposedly lottery bound kids, Sam Young (SF) and DeJuan Blair (PF), both from Pittsburgh, failed to make it to the first round. Young went to Memphis at #36 and Blair went to San Antonio at #37. It's a steal for the Spurs, once again.

Yawn.

FInal Words on the Finals 2009

First, the Lakers deserved to win. Hate to say that, but the Lakers were simply a better team than the Magic. Better talent, better depth, better offense, better defense, better coaching. You name it.

Secondly, Kobe was the MVP by default. I don't think he played extremely well, and the championship was not won by him, but just because he's the best player in the winning team, he's the MVP. 32.4 PPG didn't pop any eyes, nor the 43% FG. Yes, 7.4 APG is certainly surprising, but let's get to that later. I mean, he didn't hit that much clutch shots. Alas, maybe except the blowout game 1, I can say that Kobe didn't won one game in the Finals. I agree with Bill Simmons, Kobe did NOT elevate his game to another level, nor has he changed a lot from last year.

Thirdly, the Lakers' supporting cast won the Finals. Pau Gasol, the so-called second banana, played it all out. He didn't have much touch (thanks to Kobe), but he hit a staggering 60% FG. Moreover, he played it tough to play good defense (which is underrated) against D-Howard. Derek Fisher simply saved the Lakers in Game 4 by staying clutch. Yes, he's slow and helpless in defense, but he just did what he does the best: shooting Js and initiating offense. Lamar Odom, against all odds, did not choke and played a pivotal role in helping the Lakers to win. His versatility, especially his defense, caused much trouble for the Magic, on both offense and defense. Andrew Bynum was still not the dominant big man people had expected him to be (at least not yet), but he did play with heart and his sheer presence in the paint at least partially slowed DH12.

But the huge factor is Trevor Ariza. IMHO, Kobe, Gasol, Fisher and Odom were basically doing whta everyone had expected them to do, and they were no better than what they were one year ago. But Ariza, he really transcended his game in the postseason. Reputed by his athleticism and defense, he had developed into a reliable 3-pt shooter (a la Rick Fox, Robert Horry mode) with a whopping 41.7% from the arc. Needless to say about his terrific defense (remember the clutch steals against the Nuggets?), but it's his ability to play inside-out that really rendered the Magic helpless. Ariza is a perfect player under the Lakers' system. It would be a grave mistake if the Lakers do not re-sign him (he can opt out of his contract this summer).

As for the Magic, well, they should have not regret. Look, they should have come to here in the first place. Imagine a heatlhy KG, or the Cavs with a long defender which could have got by trading away the expiring contract of Wally Szczerbiak. D-Howard was pathetically neutralized by the Lakers. Part of the reason is that he really has no low post move. Once again, it proves that a shooting team, even with a dominant big man like D12, could not win championship. The length, and to an extent their better defense, caused much trouble for the Magic's outside threats, namely Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus. The Cavs lost to the Magic because they did not have a second perimeter defender other than LBJ, but the Lakers got Kobe, Ariza and Odom to throw on Lewis and Turkoglu. Rookie Lee was simply overwhelmed, while Pietrus did play his best, only his best was not good enough to lead the Magic to a win. As I had said before, Rafer Alston shot the Magic out of the championship. Skip To My Lou simply is not a starting PG to win the championship.

Talking about PG, I must blame Stan Van Gundy. I think he simply played too much Jameer Nelson. Not that Alston is way better than Nelson, but from what I saw, Nelson was simply not ready. He's rusty, he looked tentative, and he's just out of sync. He's obviously still bothered by his shoulder injry, as his handle was extremely shaky. Maybe he did hit a few Js from outside, but as the PG, he failed to create open looks for teammates, and he was not able to break down the defense of the Lakers. But frankly, even for a 100% Nelson, which could burn Fisher with ease, the Magic would not be able to beat the Lakers.

Last but not least, I think the Lakers was lucky. First and foremost, thanks to the Grizzlies for the godsend Gasol. Secondly, thanks to the Magic for Ariza. Furthermore, they managed to stay healthy, while everybody else was having some not-so-minor injuries - Spurs' Ginobili, Celtics' KG, to name a few. Also, they were lucky to see the Magic, which had serious problem defending its paint. I wouldn't say the same about the Cavs, or the Celtics. They looked tentative during the season, only they were able to peak at the right time. Yes, that's because they have Phil Jackson. But strangely enough, though I said it before, I didn't see much triangle during the Finals, or the entire Playoffs. I think they really miss Tex Winter.

Looking ahead, the Lakers will be the team to beat. They still have Kobe, who is just 30, and they have the deepest roster in the League. That is, assuming that they keep Odom and Ariza. Yes, they need to address the aging issue of Fisher, but I see some potential in Shannon Brown. As always, it would be a challenge for the Lakers to repeat, and I would love to see what the Cavs would do this summer, knowing how desperate they are to convince LBJ to stay in Cleveland this year.

Yes, I'm still a Kobe-hater, and a Lakers-hater, and I much admit that I was just half-hearted when watching this Finals. I wish other teams, Magic, Cavs, Celtics, Spurs et al to come up with a better team next year and beat the Lakers.

BEAT L.A.!

NBA FInals Preview

Finals preview, let's break it down:

Guards: Fisher + Kobe + Shannon Brown + Farmar vs. Alston + Courtney Lee + Pietrus + Anthony Johnson

Adv: Lakers

Fisher is Lakers' weakest link, but arguably PG is also the weakest link in the Magic. Alston likely will have just 1 hot shooting night for every 3 poor shooting night. He will shoot the Magic to losses. Fisher is ultra slow but he's a much better shooter and facilitator than Alston. Brown will burn Anthony Johnson with his quickness.

Needless to say anything about Kobe. BTW, I never understand why people say Pietrus did a good job guarding LBJ. For goodness' sake LBJ averaged 38.5 PPG on 48.7% FG against the Magic. Yes he is LBJ, but the stats were still way higher than that against the Pistons and the Hawks. I don't see how Pietrus could stop Kobe.


Forwards: Ariza + Gasol + Odom + Luke Walton vs. Turkoglu + Rashard Lewis

Adv: Lakers

One of the Magic's main weapons is outside shooting ofTurkoglu and Lewis. While they took full advantage of the undersized Cavs to score, expect them to have more difficulty to score against Ariza and Odom. Kobe might spend some time guarding either of them too.

Another problem of the Magic is that they have basically ZERO depth at the forward position, whereas depth is exactly the forte of the Lakers. Ariza is young and athletic, Gasol will start at PF but finish at C, and Odom can play either SF or PF, and can play inside-outside. The Magic will get their hands full on such a 3-man rotation, not to mention the occasional contribution from Luke Walton.


C: Andrew Bynum + Gasol vs. Dwight Howard + Gotat

Adv: Magic x 2

I don't think I emphasize it enough, the advantage of Magic is HUGE. The red hot D12 is totally unstoppable right now. The worst nightmare for the Lakers? D12 is hitting his FTs lately. So the Lakers cannot throw out Josh Powell (and his 6 fouls-to-give) to do the "hack-the-superman" tactics.

On the other side, we have the "promising" Andrew Bynum, who is just a part-time here, averaging only 17 MPG this post season. He's so poor in defense that he was either in foul trouble or the coach simply benched him all the way. Against D12, Bynum will easily get fouled-out and/or DNP-CD. As for Gasol, well, we know he's soft and can't imagine how he could guard D12. Alas, how on earth could the Lakers slow down Dwight Howard if they couldn't even slow down Nene and K-Mart? But Gasol will score some in the mid-range against D12.

Coach: Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy

Adv: Even

OK, my personal preference aside, to be fair, SVG is a good coach who maximizes his team's performance. He's flexible and makes changes when necessary. I think he's a better coach than his bro, Jeff. He only talks too much. Yikes.

As for the Zen Master, well, frankly, I have serious reservation. It seems like since the retirement of assistant coach Tex Winter (the architect of the Triangle Offense), Phil is no longer the same. Many a time, he made questionable moves and he simply didn't have the midas touch on some key moments that he used to have. Worse, his team is super inconsistent and doesn't play first-class defense. So, maybe we should credit at least part of his past success to Tex Winter then?


Gameplays:

The greatest strengths of the Lakers are their versatility and depth. If the Lakers could share the ball like they did in Game 6 of the Conf. Finals, the Magic will have serious trouble guarding them. The Lakers can score in the paint, mid-range and even the 3s. Kobe, Odom and Gasol, all of them can score or pass, which makes them ultra difficult to guard. In addition, if the Lakers run fastbreaks, they can use their depth and athleticism to wear down the Magic. Last but not least, they have Kobe to bail them out in close games.

On the other hand, the Magic will continue their inside-out game play. They have huge advantage by posting up Howard against the soft frontcourt of the Lakers. If the Lakers decide to double-team him, this will generate tons of open looks for the Magic's shooting stars like Turk, Lewis, Lee and Pietrus. However, for one-on-one, the Magic's perimeter players are not that easy to score against Kobe, Ariza and Odom.

The wildcard? Lakers' defense.

Although people are saying that Nelson might return, but given his shoulder problem, his contribution will be limited, more a mental boost than anything. So he's not a wildcard. The wildcard is whether the Lakers can stay focused and stop the Magic. We have seen them played terrific defense before, when they were concentrated enough. If they can somehow control the damage of D12 (c'mon, you can't STOP him) and avoid open looks on the perimeter, the Lakers will beat the Magic with its versatility and depth. On the other hand, if they become lethargic in defense and try to out-score opponents, the Magic will prevail.

Prediction: Lakers in 6.

Conference Finals Preview

EAST

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic

8-0 so far. Well rested and full of energy, this year, nobody is hungrier than the Cavs. Excellent chemistry, playing with heart and hustle, tough rebounding and defending, peak at the right time, what to complain? Plus, an unstoppable LBJ. Have you seen all the crazy shots that LBJ hoisted and made recently? Suggest you hit youtube and you'll know how surreal things are right now. With LBJ drawing defenders, teammates are getting all the open looks . Without a doubt they are playing the best basketball right now.

Now, please stop all the “what if KG had been in uniform”questions, the Magic beat the defending champion and is right here, now and present. Forget the Celtics. The Magic win games by 3-pt shooting and defense. Nobody relies on outside shots more than the Magic, and they have enough shooters to get the job done. Meanwhile, they have DH12 dominating the paint.

For this series, LBJ will do it all, as usual. Driving to the hoop, hitting outside shots, setting up teammates, rebounding, defending opponents' ace, you name it. Expect him to post yet another round of 30-8-6 stats. I repeat, no one can stop LBJ right now. Meanwhile, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Gibson and Sczcerbiak will take turn to hit the open 3s. Big Z is a super efficient scorer who also rebounds well. I like the idea of starting Varejao instead of Big Ben. Varejao is the designated energy guy who is obviously more active and athletic than Big Ben, who is really washed out at this stage of his career. The Cavs will once again play suffocating defense and will have a huge advantage in rebounding.

I don't think DH12 will be very effective against the Cavs' tough defense, but he will get his share of double-double as usual. On the other hand, Magic's outside shooting will be a threat to the Cavs. LBJ may be able to contain either one of Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, but they will have trouble stopping the other one. Either Varejao will take up Lewis, which will make Ilgauskas being exposed to play DH12 one-on-one, or Delonte West will take up the assignment to cover Turk, but will give up a lot of size. The Lee/ Pietrus combo is athletic as well. The worst nightmare for the Magic would be LBJ getting Dwight Howard into foul trouble.

To make it short, I don't think the Cavs would be able to sweep the Magic, but with LBJ playing like a superhuman, the Cavs should have no problem finishing them off.

Cavs in 6.


WEST

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

After much drama, the Lakers advanced to the Conference Finals, just as expected since the very first day of the season. From the Rockets series, we learned that the Lakers are certainly not invincible. They could play with unacceptable lethargy. Don't blame Odom's minor injury, inconsistency has been their problem throughout the season. However, they are still the deepest team in the league. We saw them trashing the Rockets by 40 pts. And we saw them winning games just when needed, like Game 7. If just by watching Game 5 and 7, you will never understand why the series was pushed to 7 games. When they are focused and play hard, they dominated on both ends. But they were not able to play hard every night.

On the other side, we have the hottest team in the West. Thanks to the arrival of Billups, the Nuggets have transformed into a genuine elite team. Billups provides much needed leadership to the team. 'Melo has been shooting the lights out, while the entire team are full of fire and energy. In terms of chemistry and intensity, they are the exact opposite of the Lakers.

So what's the take? The Lakers can win at the frontcourt. Gasol should have no problem scoring down low. K-Mart is a thug, but don't mix that up with good defender. After surgeries on both knees, his defense rotation is slow and he doesn't have any lift. Nene flat out can't play D period. Odom and Ariza would take turn to score on 'Melo. Chris Anderson is a hustle guy who, well, hustles. OK, I don't count on Bynum, but Lakers would easily out-score and out-rebound the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, 'Melo, assumed guarded by Kobe, will not score as easily as in the last two rounds, but he's so quick and versatile that it would be insane to expect him to score less than 25 PPG. Nene is a legitimate low post scorer. It would be interesting to see how the Lakers' bench to stop J.R. Smith's long range bomb. But the biggest advantage of the Nuggets is at PG. Chauncey Billups could score 30 pts by hitting his deadeye 3s, or get 12 assists by setting up teammates. If I were Phil Jackson, I will sacrifice the outside scoring and charge-taking of Fisher and start Jordan Farmar at PG. There's no chance that Fisher should be able to guard Billups. He's just too washed up. I would even play Shannon Brown ahead of Fisher . So if the Lakers has supreme advantage in the frontcourt and rebounding, they just give back the Nuggets the edge at PG and outside shooting.

So we come to Kobe. We have seen him taking less shots and scoring less this season Yes, with such a deep roster, he doesn't need to score 50 pts to win. He still scored all those tough shots (though I have been critical of his shot selection), and he can score 40 pts with ease. He could play tough defense (e.g. against 'Melo). But the problem is, I do not see a Black Mamba in Kobe. I do not see him showing the much needed killer instinct. Come to think about it, the Nuggets have no Artest or Battier to guard Kobe. It's clear that the Nuggets can only double-team Kobe, a strategy George Karl might not take due to the presence of many outside shooters in LA. On defense, Kobe is the one who can stop 'Melo. Simply put, this series is entirely on Kobe. It's for him to win. Or lose.

Lakers in 6. (Imagine David Stern checking the TV rating of Denver and LA, and then make a phone call to the refs to ensure that the Kobe-LBJ duel happen.

LA Lakers @Utah Jazz, Game 3, April 23, 2009

Scouting report

Utah Jazz

The Jazz set the game tone right at the start of the game. They played tough defense, aggressively harassing the Lakers, protecting the paint by roughing the Lakers’ big men, and controlling the board on both end. The Jazz outrebounded the Lakers 55-40, which is one of the main reasons why they won the game.

On offense, they executed perfectly. I didn’t see them running their famous pick-n-rolls much, but rather they had some good ball and player movement, breaking down the Lakers’ substandard defense, generating open looks both on the perimeter AND in the paint.

More importantly, despite being undersized, they were able to grab tons of offensive rebounds. All of them hustled for second chance. Good attitude.

Overall, the Jazz managed to play the grind-it-out type of slow paced game, which is definitely to their advantage. They also executed perfectly in the clutch time and were able to hang on with the 2-pt lead.

Deron Williams did not have his A-game today. His shots were off, worse is his FTs, an uncharacteristic 7-for-12. Well, he did come around before it’s too late and hit a clutch shot to win the game. As usual, he had 9 dimes and did a good job running the offense.

Carlos Boozer is a beast on the boards, 22 rebounds, including 5 offensive ones. He also scored as required, 22 pts, which was mainly from mid-range Js.

Ronnie Brewer scored some (12 pts), but what he contributed the most is playing in-your-face defense on Kobe, who obviously had an off night. He is clearly the unsung hero in this game.

Andrei Kirilenko was promoted to starter. However, he’s not the guy to finish the game. He made some early damage, but was largely invisible in Q4.

Jarron Collins… hmm… 7 mins, 1 reb, 1 stl, 1 pt.

It is their bench that won the game. Trailed by 60-68 after three quarters, the Jazz bench began a rally early in Q4. Again, the Lakers’ defense slipped a bit, which allowed Kyle Korver, Matt Harpring and C.J. Miles to hit consecutive outside shots as the Jazz eventually took back the lead at 73-72 with 9 mins to go. Harpring scored 8 pts during the run.

Paul Millsap did not start but he played a pivotal role in the last quarter. He flat out controlled the glass while protecting the paint. He even blocked Kobe’s J once! Millsap is the reason why the Jazz did not miss Okur in Game 3.

Korver was horrible in three quarters, passing out open shots, or missing shots badly. He’s defense is worse as ever. Well, Korver redeemed himself late in the game by hitting a few timely jumpers when the game was on the line.


L.A. Lakers

Facing Jazz’s suffocating defense, the Lakers shot badly (36.8% FG). They always settled for outside shots. Gone are the precise ball movement, as the Lakers relied heavily on iso, but they were not able to take any advantage when they called iso plays for guys like Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. The Lakers clearly was not comfortable playing with such a slow-paced game.

Right at the start of the game, the Lakers showed better defense. They were aggressive, and were quick on double-teaming guys like Boozer. However, they soon returned their old self. Poor baseline rotation resulted in a wide-open lane, as the Jazz repeatedly found open men in the paint for some easy layups. Andrew Bynum was ultra slow in defense, while Gasol always stayed too high and forgot to box out. Can’t imagine how the Lakers would survive when Mehmet Okur comes back, whose outside scoring ability will pull the Lakers’ big man further away from the paint.

I repeat, defense wins championship. I have the feeling that whenever they were down, instead of stopping the Jazz, the Lakers always tried to outscore the opponents. Maybe they could beat teams like Utah with such strategy, they are not going to win it all the way playing like that.

The only time when Lakers showed satisfactory performance is at the start of the 2H. They focused on closing down the lane, denying passing lines and challenging shots. In the first 3 mins of Q3, the Jazz missed 3 FG and committed 2 TO. With better ball movement, Kobe, Gasol and Trevor Ariza were able to have more open looks and started to hit the shots as the Lakers took a 10-1 run to take back the lead 49-44. They were able to maintain the lead as Ariza and Gasol continued to make shots. Too bad they let the Jazz come back in Q4 and eventually lost the game by 2.

Kobe settled for outside shots, as always. He particularly liked to fire (and miss) those tough, fade away jump shots. When he became aggressive attacking the basket, it was effective. He either made the layups, drew the fouls, or somehow his teammates scored. The Lakers is much easier to score when Kobe is attacking the basket. I don’t know why he did not do it more often.

Gasol scored 20 pts but hit just 4 of 10 FTs. They were lost by 2 pts, so go figure. Also, Gasol was not able to play acceptable defense. He remained as a sfot player after the tough Jazz big men.

Ariza was guarded by AK47 and was not as effective as in Game 2. He did hit 2 3-pters in Q3 when the Lakers began to build up their lead.

Derek Fisher had a silent game. His shots is off, he did not do a good job in distributing the ball, and he was outplayed by D-Will.

Bynum is clearly not 100%. He was very immobile and super slow in lateral movement. Though he made a few low post moves and scores, his defense was so bad that he either left his man wide open, or committed stupid fouls. He took his seat at the bench after committing his 5th foul with 1.30 min left in Q3! His total PT? 7 mins!

To me, Lamar Odom was the best player in the team. Not only he scored 21 pts, but he is the only Laker that cared about defense. He had 14 reb, including 5 offensive rebounds, which helped the Lakers to stay in the game.


This is how the Jazz won the game:

- After Boozer made 2 FTs to help the Jazz to take a 82-80 lead, Kobe penetrated and made a perfect dish to Odom for an easy layup. 82-82 1.07 min
- Next possession, D-Will and Boozer executed a perfect pick n roll with Boozer finishing with a tough layup. 84-82 Jazz. 47 sec
- The Jazz doubled-teamed Kobe at the corner, forcing him to call a 20 sec timeout. 30 sec. After the TO, Kobe drove at the baseline, getting past 3 defenders and hit a layup. Game tied at 84-84. 28.9 sec
- Boozer post up Gasol, then made a power move, driving past Gasol for a thunderous dunk. 86-84 Jazz. 16.9 sec
- This time, Kobe and Gasol made a perfect pick-n-roll as Gasol had a wide open running dunk. Tied at 86-86. 11.7 sec.
- Winning play: Deron Williams dribbled at the top of the key, shaking off Fisher, with a not-so-pretty crossover, the made a fade away jumper over a stretched Gasol. 88-86 Jazz. 2.2 sec.
- Kobe missed a 30-ft 3-pter badly. Game Utah

As you see above, the Jazz executed flawlessly in the closing minutes, scoring in 4 consecutive plays. On the other side, Kobe stepped up to make clutch plays, either scoring or setting up teammates. But they were not able to stop D-Will and Boozer when it matters. It is an impressive win by the Jazz. Give props to coach Jerry Sloan, who was able to play the game they want, and made perfect execution at clutch time.

Let’s see if the Jazz could be able to ride on this win and get another game in Salt Lake City on Saturday.

First round preview

Finally, it's playoffs time! As said before, I am not too thrilled about this postseason, simply because there is not much suspense. Namely, I do not think anyone can knock out the Lakers in the West. At the same time, the Cavs look so strong that seems like no one in the East can beat them, in particular that KG's knee problem has been worse than expected.

Fortunately, the first round should at least generate some drama. In the West, the Nuggets finished at #2, but they will face the Hornets, who is not an ordinary #7 team. And who will not be excited about the Spurs-Mavs All-Texas matchup? And I haven't mentioned the traditional tough matchup between the #4 (Blazers) and #5 (Rockets). In the East, could the defending champion, without KG, be able to fend off the red hot Bulls? What about Wade & Co against the now playoffs-tested Hawks? Anyway, here's my round 1 preview/prediction:

EAST

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons

Yes, a replay of 2007 Conference Finals. If the Pistons can't stop LBJ in 2007, I can't see how they could do it this year. The Cavs have the best record, including a surreal 39-2 home record. They finally have Mo Williams as a legit second banana, and a deep bench featuring Daniel Gibson, Wally Sczcerbiak, Anderson Varejao and Joe Smith. Losing Big Ben may hurt a bit but I don't think they miss him that much. Yes, the Pistons may be not as bad as its record show, but without Billups, they are not the same. First, they will have difficulty guarding Mo Williams, and I haven't mentioned how they could stop LBJ. Oops, I said that already. As Rasheed Wallace continued to age and becoming more and more disinterested, their frontline is not as formidable as before. Yes, the Pistons is a team in the past.

Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers

#2 Boston Celtics vs. #.7 Chicago Bulls

The biggest news of course is that KG will definitely miss the 1st round, and might miss the entire playoffs. A huge blow to the defending champion. I mean, they are still an elite team with good coaching. However, the Bulls are better than it appears. Don't be fooled by its record or standing, they are a decent team with depth after the trade for John Salmons and Brad Miller. Salmons' presence is particularly important now that Luol Deng is out. These, plus KG's unavailability, will make this series closer than people think. But it is still difficult to see Vinny Del Negro beating Doc Rivers and the entire Celtics coaching staff. I mean, this ain't no Hollywood movie, right? A rookie coach leading an underdog to beat the reigning champion? That's too dramatic in real life, with or without KG.

Prediction: 4-3 Celtics

#3 Orlando Magic vs. #6 Philadelphia Sixers

Like the Celtics, the Magic is haunted by injury as well. Turkoglu twisted his ankle towards the end of the season and missed the last two games. I have said before, Turkoglu is the second most important player in the team. Not Lewis, and certainly not (the injured) Nelson. Without a healthy Turkoglu, I don't see the Magic going deep in the playoffs. However, I still think they should have no problem finishing the Sixers, who had lost 6 in a row before beating the 2nd team of Cavs in OT in the 82nd game of the season. BTW, the Magic swept the Sixers in the regular season.

Prediction: 4-1 Magic

#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. #5 Miami Heat

As always, the #4-#5 matchup is the most exciting. The Hawks pushed the Celtics to the limit last year, and after that, the Hawks built on that and became a genuine elite team this season. Now the Heat. D-Wade played it all out to lead a team of mediocre players and rookies to #5 in the East, quite an accomplishment. Now, can he still have the mojo to carry the team to more success in the playoffs like what he did in 2006? I think so. I know the Hawks is a more complete team and they have Joe Johnson and Josh Smith and Mike Bibby, they play terrific defense, but I want some Wade moments. The playoffs need some drama, the league need some drama. Wade must do some magic to upset the Hawks and face LBJ in the 2nd round.

Prediction: 4-3 Wade, oops, I mean Heat


WEST

#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Utah Jazz

OK, Andrew Bynum is back, and he looks good in those brief moment on the court. On paper, no team is deeper than the Lakers. And they have Kobe. They also have Phil Jackson. What to complain? Yes, they still win games by offense more than defense, and sometimes they don't have that killer instinct to finish opponents. But guess that should be enough to finish the Jazz. It's a strange case why the Jazz faltered like that late in the season, in no coincidence when Boozer returned to the lineup. If I have to pick a reason, guess the impending free agency of Boozer, plus his diminished play time after the surge of Paul Millsap has somehow hurt their chemistry. Anyway, facing the Lakers probably is their worst nightmare, not to mention the fact that Phil Jackson always owns Jerry Sloan in the past.

My prediction: 4-1 Lakers

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

I have never been a fan of the Nuggets. I believe that they grabbed the #2 spot in the West is just a result of the injuries suffered by the Spurs, the Rockets and the Hornets. Yes, Chauncey "Big Shot" Billups is a huge addition to a team that lacks leadership. But they are still the Nuggets. On the other hand, the Hornets have solid players in CP3, Peja, David West, Tysan Chandler and playoffs specialist James Posey. So maybe a potential upset? Unlikely I'd say. Not without a healthy Chandler and Posey, no matter how brilliant CP3 is. And don't forget the choking history of Peja. I think the Nuggets will be lucky again and proceed to second round.

My prediction: 4-2 Nuggets

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks

A 2006 Conference Finals rematch. Sigh, the Spurs-Mavs rivalry sounds like ancient history nowadays. The Spurs was not the same without Ginobili, while the Mavs is not the same after their humble exit in 2007 and 2008 playoffs. It is reported that Tim Duncan has been bothered by knee injury throughout the season and he's clearly not his old self. But despite the strong run of the Mavs to finish the season, the Spurs is still the better team. The Spurs is a better defense team, and if J-Kidd couldn't slow down Tony Parker in 2003, there's no way that he could do it now. Dirk, despite his terrific stats, has regressed to an outside shooter this year, seldom taking down low in the paint. So don't expect him to have any heroic moment like in 2006. Time for the Mavs to rebuild, frankly.

My prediction: 4-2 Spurs

#4 Portland Trailblazers vs. #5. Houston Rockets

Probably the most exciting matchup in the first round. The Blazers is well liked universially. They are young, they are energetic, they have good spirits, and they are disciplined. Roy is certainly a superstar in the making; Fernandez is super entertaining; Aldridge, Outlaw are all talented players, while they also have some extremely solid role players like Blake, Przybilla and Batum. However, experience is the issue. The Rockets, on the other hand, is full of experience. First round exit experience, that is. This team is no doubt talented. Yao, Artest, Battier, Scola. Their backcourt (Brooks, Lowry, Wafer) maybe is undersized but super quck. This would be heck of a matchup. Hard to say which one is an underdog, as their records are so close. While my love for Yao is forever, I just think that the Blazers has better chemistry and they have one thing that the Rockets lack, a finisher (Roy).

My prediction: 4-3 Blazers

Awards Watch

The regular season is coming to an end, it's time to take a look at the candidates of all the awards.

Most Valuable Player

How do you define "most valuable"? The most talented? The most skillful? The highest scoring? The highest efficiency or PER? The one who is the most valuable to his team? The best player in the best team of the league? Maybe all of the above. Plus, since the award is voted by journalists, please also include the most hyped.

To me, I always take team success as the top priority. Not necessarily the best player in the best team, but I will never pick a player with terrific stat in a lousy team. Let's say the minimum is the top 10 teams in the league. Secondly, the MVP should be one of the best players in the league. For convenience sake, let's just say he must be top-10 in John Hollinger's PER list.

Here is the list of players who meet the above criteria as of today: LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Brandon Roy, Tony Parker, Chris Paul and Dirk Nowitzki. Yes, Dwyane Wade will be missed despite being the league's leading scorer and 2nd in PER, simply because Miami Heat is just a .500 team (42 games as of Sunday, April 12). You can say it is not a fair measurement of individual success but winning is one of the most important factors to define a player's greatness . Otherwise Bill Russelll will never be considered as one of (if not) the greatest player in history. So, sorry, Dwyane.

Next is the qualitative part. First he must be a genuine leader of the team, so Tony Parker is out. Secondly, he must have the ability to put the team on his shoulder and win games when needed. In order words, Tim Duncan (for this season) is out. Also, you should not be a choker, so Dirk Nowitzki is out.

So for the remaining, it's quite obvious who is the winner. Yes, there is still an argument whether Kobe or LBJ is a better player. However, for this season only, LBJ should win it. He is No. 1 in PER, No. 2 in scoring. I had been critical on his shooting and defense in the past, but this season we saw substantial improvement in both departments. The Cavs have the best record in the league, and a whopping 20-game improvement from last year. In case you don't know, LBJ leads the team in PTS, REB, AST, STL and BLK. Simply put, he is literally and figuratively the leader of the team.

While I have never been a big fan of him, I must admit I really appreciate his effort and determination to improve his short coming. Kobe is close, but the difference between his PER and that of LBJ is so large that I really can't make a good case for him.

My pick:

1. LeBron James
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Dwight Howard



Defensive Player of the Year

This is another tough one, because defense excellence could not exactly be reflected in individual stats. Instead, defense is more teamwork. That's why KG won it last season. I will look into team defense stat first. To qualify as a DPOY, your team must be one of the best defense teams in the league. After that, we may take a look at individual stats. Due to limited resources I can access, I would just look into REB, BLK and STL, but these are just for reference only. Lastly, and most importantly, the fear factor. A DPOY should be a player that makes his opponents fear. Some players are good defenders but can't scare their opponents, as opposed to guys like, you know, Ron Artest, Dikembe Mutombo and the Glove.

Based on the above criteria, I would go with the flow and pick Dwight Howard as DPOY. His team ranks 6th in pts allowed and 3rd in FG% allowed. He leads the league in REB and BLK. Most crucial, is that DH12 is a guy that you fear. LBJ, CP3 and Wade may also have terrific stats, but they are not the type of defenders that opponents fear. Yes, DH12 is still not perfect in his pick-n-roll defense, but at least for this year, he is the best defender in the league.

Houston Rockets have terrific defense stat too (although is slightly inferior to the Magic), and I must put Ron Artest and Shane Battier in 2nd and 3rd respectively. The most important difference between these two Rockets and Superman is the fear factor that DH12 imposes on his opponents.

My pick:

1. Dwight Howard
2. Ron Artest
3. Shane Battier


Rookie of the Year

This is easy. I think Chicago Bulls' Derrick Rose should win the unanimous vote, if the voters are sane. Rose is playing the toughest position for a rookie in a not-so-harmonized Bulls. They struggled early but had a late run to get back to the playoffs mix, now challenging to take up as high as No. 6 spot in the East. Rose never hit the so-called rookie wall, and has been extremely consistent. Only when he has improved his shooting (underrated actually) and defense, he will soon become one of the top PGs in the league.

Memphis Grizzlies' O. J. Mayo is good but then he plays in a lousy team and at a relatively easy position (swingman). He's no surprise that he posts decent scoring. Ditto for Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon. Mayo clearly is a better shooter than Westbrook and Gordon and therefore should finish No.2 in ROY. New Jersey Nets' Brook Lopez is clearly a solid big man with 13.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 1.8 BPG. However, I have watched him played, and I was not impressed by his low post moves, too robot-like. Anyway, he's the best big man for the Nets since, err, Mutombo in 02-03 season.

My pick:

1. Derrick Rose
2. O. J. Mayo
3. Brook Lopez


Sixth Man of the Year

This season, with leading candidate Manu Ginobili being slowed by injury and playing sparingly, it has come to only three legitimate candidates: Mavericks' Jason Terry, Suns' Leandro Barbosa and Nuggets' J.R. Smith. Had Andrew Bynum not been out that many games thereby forcing Lamar Odom to start 32 games, Odom would have been another candidate.

I think JT is clearly the winner here. With Josh Howard sitting out for a long stretch, the Mavericks would never have a chance to crack the playoffs without JT's tremendous effort. He also has the ability to win games on his own and hit the clutch shots. And I haven't mentioned his 19.5 PPG.

J.R. Smith kept on hitting his 3s to help the Nuggets to take the No. 2 spot in the West, while Barbosa, as always, provided much needed bench scoring for the Suns, whose bench is as thin as ever. But they are no match to Terry. As for Nate Robinson aka Krpto-Nate, please. Yeah, he scores a lot, but we all know players' stats and values are always inflated under D'Antoni (and his SSOL system). He's nothing but a showcase.

My pick:

1. Jason Terry
2. J.R. Smith
3. Leandro Barbosa


Most Improved Player

Another tough one. First, we need to look at the improvement in the players' stats. Then we will discount those improvement due to, e.g., increasing PT, promotion from bench to starting due to injuries of teammates etc. While normally this award will give to those players who rise from mediocre to stardom, I believe it is not fair to ignore those who are already stars but have advanced to become a superstar.

Anyway, the consensus goes to Devin Harris and I have no problem with that. Not only his stats, his role in the team has also changed substantially. Coach Lawrence Frank has given him the green light to take the lead in offense this season. He took up such role with confidence, and other than sitting out due to injury, he has been consistent. Yes, the Nets did not play well but this is a lousy team anyway. Harris is now a bona fide star.

Kevin Durant should also be given much consideration. His most improvement is not his scoring (from 20.3 to 25.5), but his shot selection. His FG% improved from .430 to 476, while his 3PT% saw a big leap from .288 to .422. Plus, he has assumed the leading role in the young OKC team. Rajon Rondo is another MIP candidate. Following his solid performance in last year's playoffs, Rondo has risen his game, in particular in scoring, and contributed a lot to the team's success when KG went down with injury. You just can't imagine the surmountable pressure he has, playing along with three future hall-of-famers and in a city where championship is expected.

I would not consider Danny Granger a legit candidate. For sure he's an all-star, but he was already very good last season, while his improvement this season is not that substantial, relatively speaking. And his injury has really hurt his case. Also, I will not put much consideration on Paul Millsap, whose stats improved mainly due to increased PT when playing in place of the injured Carlos Boozer.

My pick:

1. Devin Harris
2. Kevin Durant
3. Rajon Rondo


Coach of the Year

Now the most contraversial award. Should you award the most tactical coach in the league (in that case it should be either Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich or Jerry Sloan)? Or should you award the coach of the best team (Mike Brown)? What about the best teacher who managed to turn around a losing team (Larry Brown)? Or the coach that helped the team to make the most leap from mediocre to one of the best in the league (Stan Van Gundy)?

In the end, I decided to put my vote on McMillan. It's a no easy task to coach such a young team. On top of basketball, I bet he have put considerable time to manage his players' egos. Of course, the fact that the Blazers managed to stand at No. 4 in the competitive West counts.

SVG is also good in a way that he was able to take the team to another level, with basically the same squad (minus Jameer Nelson). But I can't deny the fact that I am irritated by his comments. He speaks too much, in particular about Shaq's flop, which makes me sick. Mike Brown should also get credits for the 20-game improvement of the Cavs. The thing I appreciate the most is that he was able to admit his limit and hired an assistant coach to improve the offense. The result is immediate. Also, it's no easy task to insert newcomers like Mo Williams into the system. The bad thing is, the presence of LBJ really hurts Brown's chance for COY. Also, I still believe he is not yet a resourceful coach, as in those could excels in X's and O's and make necessary in-game adjustments to win games.

My pick:

1. Nate McMillan
2. Stan Van Gundy
3. Mike Brown