2010 NBA Playoffs First Round Prediction

I know it's late, but let's just a quick look at each series. I am working on the season review and the award prediction as well. Stay tuned.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Cleveland Cavalier vs. #8 Chicago Bulls

Congratulations to the Baby Bulls to make it this far. Talent-wise, they do have some: reigning ROY Derrick Rose, versatile Luol Deng, MIP candidate Joakim Noah. But that's it. Too bad they need to face the best team in the league with the best player in the league with one of the deepest rosters in the league. But frankly, what do you expect for a team which had been deliberately cutting down salary to get prepared for this summers' free agent market? Getting into the playoffs is already an accomplishment for the Bulls. Imagine the team with the core three, then add an marquee superstar (Joe Johnson, Wade, Bosh, Boozer), do you dig it?

Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers

#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats

Kudos to Larry Brown, who once again proved he is still one of the best coaches alive, after the not-so-pretty brief stint in New York. Yet, it is still hard to imagine Captain Jack & Co would be able to beat the Magic, one of the best defense teams in the league. No, I don't think this year's Magic is better than last year's mainly because of, ahem, Vince Carter, but the Bobcats are just poorly undersized. And their bench is just too weak. However, I think Larry Brown and Captain Jack is gutsy enough to put up some fight and get at least 2 wins.

Prediction: 4-2 Magic

#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 Miami Heat

Just like the Bulls, the Heat is a team waiting for the summer, so can't imagine to have such determination to beat the Celtics. The Heat is just too easy to defend. A pure one-man team. In the regular season, some supporting casts, like Beasley or JO might surprise you. But for a 7-game series, the opponents just need to clamp down Wade. Period. Let the rest shoots, do whatever they can. Worse is that Wade tends to dominate the ball more during playoffs, which makes defending him even easier. And did I mention that Wade is also their lone defender on the other end? As for the Celtics, their chemistry that won the championship two years ago was long gone. But their Big Three plus Rondo are just too much for the Heat to handle

Prediction: 4-0 Celtics

#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. #5 Milwaukee Bucks

The Hawks is a year matured and a year better. Yes, the addition of Jamal Crawford is huge. One intangible factor is, this is their last year. There's no way the Hawks, given their low attendance and poor revenue, are going to afford re-signing Joe Johnson. This single factor makes me put them as the dark horse to go to the Conference Finals. Oops, sorry they have to meet the Cavs in the next round. The Bucks have done a good job this season to be the team of surprise, give credits to coach Scott Skiles. And I really love Branden Jennings, though he will not win the ROY. But without Bogut and Redd, there's no way they can beat the Hawks. This year's Hawks I mean.

Prediction: 4-0

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder

Yes, this year's Lakers look complacent and disinterested at times. Yes, Kobe is hurt. Yes, Bynum is not 100%. And yes, OKC is the team of surprise in this side of the continent. But let's face it, there's no way Phil Jackson nor Kobe would allow a young team led by an inexperienced coach to beat them in the first round. Durant is super-talented and one day should challenge LBJ to be the best player in the league/world. Westbrook and Green are very promising talent too. But just not this year. Not yet.

Prediction: 4-1

#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs

Once again it's Mavs vs. Spurs. Only is that this time the Mavs have the upper hand. They are the deepest team in the West, and they stole Caron Butler, and to a not-so-lesser extent, Branden Haywood, from Washington. On the other hand, the Spurs has yet to integrate the newly acquired Richard Jefferson into their system (normally it takes players at least 2 years to blend in). However, the Spurs had a real good run to finish on a high note in the regular season. Eventually Popovich's strategy works: he strictly limited the PT of the Big Three during regular season and now at least Ginobili and Duncan is healthy. One big problem is that they would miss Tony Parker. A lot. Mr. Longoria has not been his usual self all season, and he certainly won't be in the playoffs. No matter how much I love the Spurs, I just can't see them beating the deeper and more talented Mavs. But for sure it would be one of the most exciting series in the first round.

Prediction: 4-3 Mavericks

#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers

The Suns once look like their old self, scoring at will, but they also have a new thing: defense. To say they are a good defense team is an overstatement, but at least they do play SOME defense. Plus, their window is closing. This year, like the Hawks, would be their last chance. Amare is all but certain to leave town (Hello, Miami!) and Nash is getting a year older. Unlike Kidd, the way Nash plays and the way the Suns play, Nash can't be as effective as Kidd at the age of 37. And the Blazers without Roy stands no chance to beat the red hot Suns, no matter how many shots Marcus Camby blocks.

Prediction: 4-1 Suns

#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz

I have never liked the Nuggets. I hate thugs. I hate Martin, and I hate 'Melo, though I must confess that he is one of the most unstoppable scorers in the league. But without Coach Karl, they are an entirely different team. The Jazz and Jerry Sloan are no normal pedestrians. Like the Hawks and the Suns, they too know that this is the final year to have Boozer in Salt Lake City. His back up Paul Millsap is anytime ready to start, but he just ain't no Boozer. I like D-Will, much more than the overrated Chauncey “Big Shot” Billups. When was the last time he made a big shot anyway? Probably in 2004. Yeah, I can smell upset here, though arguably a #5 beating #4 could hardly classify as “upset”.

Prediction: 4-3 Jazz

NBA FInals Preview

Finals preview, let's break it down:

Guards: Fisher + Kobe + Shannon Brown + Farmar vs. Alston + Courtney Lee + Pietrus + Anthony Johnson

Adv: Lakers

Fisher is Lakers' weakest link, but arguably PG is also the weakest link in the Magic. Alston likely will have just 1 hot shooting night for every 3 poor shooting night. He will shoot the Magic to losses. Fisher is ultra slow but he's a much better shooter and facilitator than Alston. Brown will burn Anthony Johnson with his quickness.

Needless to say anything about Kobe. BTW, I never understand why people say Pietrus did a good job guarding LBJ. For goodness' sake LBJ averaged 38.5 PPG on 48.7% FG against the Magic. Yes he is LBJ, but the stats were still way higher than that against the Pistons and the Hawks. I don't see how Pietrus could stop Kobe.


Forwards: Ariza + Gasol + Odom + Luke Walton vs. Turkoglu + Rashard Lewis

Adv: Lakers

One of the Magic's main weapons is outside shooting ofTurkoglu and Lewis. While they took full advantage of the undersized Cavs to score, expect them to have more difficulty to score against Ariza and Odom. Kobe might spend some time guarding either of them too.

Another problem of the Magic is that they have basically ZERO depth at the forward position, whereas depth is exactly the forte of the Lakers. Ariza is young and athletic, Gasol will start at PF but finish at C, and Odom can play either SF or PF, and can play inside-outside. The Magic will get their hands full on such a 3-man rotation, not to mention the occasional contribution from Luke Walton.


C: Andrew Bynum + Gasol vs. Dwight Howard + Gotat

Adv: Magic x 2

I don't think I emphasize it enough, the advantage of Magic is HUGE. The red hot D12 is totally unstoppable right now. The worst nightmare for the Lakers? D12 is hitting his FTs lately. So the Lakers cannot throw out Josh Powell (and his 6 fouls-to-give) to do the "hack-the-superman" tactics.

On the other side, we have the "promising" Andrew Bynum, who is just a part-time here, averaging only 17 MPG this post season. He's so poor in defense that he was either in foul trouble or the coach simply benched him all the way. Against D12, Bynum will easily get fouled-out and/or DNP-CD. As for Gasol, well, we know he's soft and can't imagine how he could guard D12. Alas, how on earth could the Lakers slow down Dwight Howard if they couldn't even slow down Nene and K-Mart? But Gasol will score some in the mid-range against D12.

Coach: Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy

Adv: Even

OK, my personal preference aside, to be fair, SVG is a good coach who maximizes his team's performance. He's flexible and makes changes when necessary. I think he's a better coach than his bro, Jeff. He only talks too much. Yikes.

As for the Zen Master, well, frankly, I have serious reservation. It seems like since the retirement of assistant coach Tex Winter (the architect of the Triangle Offense), Phil is no longer the same. Many a time, he made questionable moves and he simply didn't have the midas touch on some key moments that he used to have. Worse, his team is super inconsistent and doesn't play first-class defense. So, maybe we should credit at least part of his past success to Tex Winter then?


Gameplays:

The greatest strengths of the Lakers are their versatility and depth. If the Lakers could share the ball like they did in Game 6 of the Conf. Finals, the Magic will have serious trouble guarding them. The Lakers can score in the paint, mid-range and even the 3s. Kobe, Odom and Gasol, all of them can score or pass, which makes them ultra difficult to guard. In addition, if the Lakers run fastbreaks, they can use their depth and athleticism to wear down the Magic. Last but not least, they have Kobe to bail them out in close games.

On the other hand, the Magic will continue their inside-out game play. They have huge advantage by posting up Howard against the soft frontcourt of the Lakers. If the Lakers decide to double-team him, this will generate tons of open looks for the Magic's shooting stars like Turk, Lewis, Lee and Pietrus. However, for one-on-one, the Magic's perimeter players are not that easy to score against Kobe, Ariza and Odom.

The wildcard? Lakers' defense.

Although people are saying that Nelson might return, but given his shoulder problem, his contribution will be limited, more a mental boost than anything. So he's not a wildcard. The wildcard is whether the Lakers can stay focused and stop the Magic. We have seen them played terrific defense before, when they were concentrated enough. If they can somehow control the damage of D12 (c'mon, you can't STOP him) and avoid open looks on the perimeter, the Lakers will beat the Magic with its versatility and depth. On the other hand, if they become lethargic in defense and try to out-score opponents, the Magic will prevail.

Prediction: Lakers in 6.

Conference Finals Preview

EAST

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic

8-0 so far. Well rested and full of energy, this year, nobody is hungrier than the Cavs. Excellent chemistry, playing with heart and hustle, tough rebounding and defending, peak at the right time, what to complain? Plus, an unstoppable LBJ. Have you seen all the crazy shots that LBJ hoisted and made recently? Suggest you hit youtube and you'll know how surreal things are right now. With LBJ drawing defenders, teammates are getting all the open looks . Without a doubt they are playing the best basketball right now.

Now, please stop all the “what if KG had been in uniform”questions, the Magic beat the defending champion and is right here, now and present. Forget the Celtics. The Magic win games by 3-pt shooting and defense. Nobody relies on outside shots more than the Magic, and they have enough shooters to get the job done. Meanwhile, they have DH12 dominating the paint.

For this series, LBJ will do it all, as usual. Driving to the hoop, hitting outside shots, setting up teammates, rebounding, defending opponents' ace, you name it. Expect him to post yet another round of 30-8-6 stats. I repeat, no one can stop LBJ right now. Meanwhile, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Gibson and Sczcerbiak will take turn to hit the open 3s. Big Z is a super efficient scorer who also rebounds well. I like the idea of starting Varejao instead of Big Ben. Varejao is the designated energy guy who is obviously more active and athletic than Big Ben, who is really washed out at this stage of his career. The Cavs will once again play suffocating defense and will have a huge advantage in rebounding.

I don't think DH12 will be very effective against the Cavs' tough defense, but he will get his share of double-double as usual. On the other hand, Magic's outside shooting will be a threat to the Cavs. LBJ may be able to contain either one of Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, but they will have trouble stopping the other one. Either Varejao will take up Lewis, which will make Ilgauskas being exposed to play DH12 one-on-one, or Delonte West will take up the assignment to cover Turk, but will give up a lot of size. The Lee/ Pietrus combo is athletic as well. The worst nightmare for the Magic would be LBJ getting Dwight Howard into foul trouble.

To make it short, I don't think the Cavs would be able to sweep the Magic, but with LBJ playing like a superhuman, the Cavs should have no problem finishing them off.

Cavs in 6.


WEST

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

After much drama, the Lakers advanced to the Conference Finals, just as expected since the very first day of the season. From the Rockets series, we learned that the Lakers are certainly not invincible. They could play with unacceptable lethargy. Don't blame Odom's minor injury, inconsistency has been their problem throughout the season. However, they are still the deepest team in the league. We saw them trashing the Rockets by 40 pts. And we saw them winning games just when needed, like Game 7. If just by watching Game 5 and 7, you will never understand why the series was pushed to 7 games. When they are focused and play hard, they dominated on both ends. But they were not able to play hard every night.

On the other side, we have the hottest team in the West. Thanks to the arrival of Billups, the Nuggets have transformed into a genuine elite team. Billups provides much needed leadership to the team. 'Melo has been shooting the lights out, while the entire team are full of fire and energy. In terms of chemistry and intensity, they are the exact opposite of the Lakers.

So what's the take? The Lakers can win at the frontcourt. Gasol should have no problem scoring down low. K-Mart is a thug, but don't mix that up with good defender. After surgeries on both knees, his defense rotation is slow and he doesn't have any lift. Nene flat out can't play D period. Odom and Ariza would take turn to score on 'Melo. Chris Anderson is a hustle guy who, well, hustles. OK, I don't count on Bynum, but Lakers would easily out-score and out-rebound the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, 'Melo, assumed guarded by Kobe, will not score as easily as in the last two rounds, but he's so quick and versatile that it would be insane to expect him to score less than 25 PPG. Nene is a legitimate low post scorer. It would be interesting to see how the Lakers' bench to stop J.R. Smith's long range bomb. But the biggest advantage of the Nuggets is at PG. Chauncey Billups could score 30 pts by hitting his deadeye 3s, or get 12 assists by setting up teammates. If I were Phil Jackson, I will sacrifice the outside scoring and charge-taking of Fisher and start Jordan Farmar at PG. There's no chance that Fisher should be able to guard Billups. He's just too washed up. I would even play Shannon Brown ahead of Fisher . So if the Lakers has supreme advantage in the frontcourt and rebounding, they just give back the Nuggets the edge at PG and outside shooting.

So we come to Kobe. We have seen him taking less shots and scoring less this season Yes, with such a deep roster, he doesn't need to score 50 pts to win. He still scored all those tough shots (though I have been critical of his shot selection), and he can score 40 pts with ease. He could play tough defense (e.g. against 'Melo). But the problem is, I do not see a Black Mamba in Kobe. I do not see him showing the much needed killer instinct. Come to think about it, the Nuggets have no Artest or Battier to guard Kobe. It's clear that the Nuggets can only double-team Kobe, a strategy George Karl might not take due to the presence of many outside shooters in LA. On defense, Kobe is the one who can stop 'Melo. Simply put, this series is entirely on Kobe. It's for him to win. Or lose.

Lakers in 6. (Imagine David Stern checking the TV rating of Denver and LA, and then make a phone call to the refs to ensure that the Kobe-LBJ duel happen.

First round preview

Finally, it's playoffs time! As said before, I am not too thrilled about this postseason, simply because there is not much suspense. Namely, I do not think anyone can knock out the Lakers in the West. At the same time, the Cavs look so strong that seems like no one in the East can beat them, in particular that KG's knee problem has been worse than expected.

Fortunately, the first round should at least generate some drama. In the West, the Nuggets finished at #2, but they will face the Hornets, who is not an ordinary #7 team. And who will not be excited about the Spurs-Mavs All-Texas matchup? And I haven't mentioned the traditional tough matchup between the #4 (Blazers) and #5 (Rockets). In the East, could the defending champion, without KG, be able to fend off the red hot Bulls? What about Wade & Co against the now playoffs-tested Hawks? Anyway, here's my round 1 preview/prediction:

EAST

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons

Yes, a replay of 2007 Conference Finals. If the Pistons can't stop LBJ in 2007, I can't see how they could do it this year. The Cavs have the best record, including a surreal 39-2 home record. They finally have Mo Williams as a legit second banana, and a deep bench featuring Daniel Gibson, Wally Sczcerbiak, Anderson Varejao and Joe Smith. Losing Big Ben may hurt a bit but I don't think they miss him that much. Yes, the Pistons may be not as bad as its record show, but without Billups, they are not the same. First, they will have difficulty guarding Mo Williams, and I haven't mentioned how they could stop LBJ. Oops, I said that already. As Rasheed Wallace continued to age and becoming more and more disinterested, their frontline is not as formidable as before. Yes, the Pistons is a team in the past.

Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers

#2 Boston Celtics vs. #.7 Chicago Bulls

The biggest news of course is that KG will definitely miss the 1st round, and might miss the entire playoffs. A huge blow to the defending champion. I mean, they are still an elite team with good coaching. However, the Bulls are better than it appears. Don't be fooled by its record or standing, they are a decent team with depth after the trade for John Salmons and Brad Miller. Salmons' presence is particularly important now that Luol Deng is out. These, plus KG's unavailability, will make this series closer than people think. But it is still difficult to see Vinny Del Negro beating Doc Rivers and the entire Celtics coaching staff. I mean, this ain't no Hollywood movie, right? A rookie coach leading an underdog to beat the reigning champion? That's too dramatic in real life, with or without KG.

Prediction: 4-3 Celtics

#3 Orlando Magic vs. #6 Philadelphia Sixers

Like the Celtics, the Magic is haunted by injury as well. Turkoglu twisted his ankle towards the end of the season and missed the last two games. I have said before, Turkoglu is the second most important player in the team. Not Lewis, and certainly not (the injured) Nelson. Without a healthy Turkoglu, I don't see the Magic going deep in the playoffs. However, I still think they should have no problem finishing the Sixers, who had lost 6 in a row before beating the 2nd team of Cavs in OT in the 82nd game of the season. BTW, the Magic swept the Sixers in the regular season.

Prediction: 4-1 Magic

#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. #5 Miami Heat

As always, the #4-#5 matchup is the most exciting. The Hawks pushed the Celtics to the limit last year, and after that, the Hawks built on that and became a genuine elite team this season. Now the Heat. D-Wade played it all out to lead a team of mediocre players and rookies to #5 in the East, quite an accomplishment. Now, can he still have the mojo to carry the team to more success in the playoffs like what he did in 2006? I think so. I know the Hawks is a more complete team and they have Joe Johnson and Josh Smith and Mike Bibby, they play terrific defense, but I want some Wade moments. The playoffs need some drama, the league need some drama. Wade must do some magic to upset the Hawks and face LBJ in the 2nd round.

Prediction: 4-3 Wade, oops, I mean Heat


WEST

#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Utah Jazz

OK, Andrew Bynum is back, and he looks good in those brief moment on the court. On paper, no team is deeper than the Lakers. And they have Kobe. They also have Phil Jackson. What to complain? Yes, they still win games by offense more than defense, and sometimes they don't have that killer instinct to finish opponents. But guess that should be enough to finish the Jazz. It's a strange case why the Jazz faltered like that late in the season, in no coincidence when Boozer returned to the lineup. If I have to pick a reason, guess the impending free agency of Boozer, plus his diminished play time after the surge of Paul Millsap has somehow hurt their chemistry. Anyway, facing the Lakers probably is their worst nightmare, not to mention the fact that Phil Jackson always owns Jerry Sloan in the past.

My prediction: 4-1 Lakers

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

I have never been a fan of the Nuggets. I believe that they grabbed the #2 spot in the West is just a result of the injuries suffered by the Spurs, the Rockets and the Hornets. Yes, Chauncey "Big Shot" Billups is a huge addition to a team that lacks leadership. But they are still the Nuggets. On the other hand, the Hornets have solid players in CP3, Peja, David West, Tysan Chandler and playoffs specialist James Posey. So maybe a potential upset? Unlikely I'd say. Not without a healthy Chandler and Posey, no matter how brilliant CP3 is. And don't forget the choking history of Peja. I think the Nuggets will be lucky again and proceed to second round.

My prediction: 4-2 Nuggets

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks

A 2006 Conference Finals rematch. Sigh, the Spurs-Mavs rivalry sounds like ancient history nowadays. The Spurs was not the same without Ginobili, while the Mavs is not the same after their humble exit in 2007 and 2008 playoffs. It is reported that Tim Duncan has been bothered by knee injury throughout the season and he's clearly not his old self. But despite the strong run of the Mavs to finish the season, the Spurs is still the better team. The Spurs is a better defense team, and if J-Kidd couldn't slow down Tony Parker in 2003, there's no way that he could do it now. Dirk, despite his terrific stats, has regressed to an outside shooter this year, seldom taking down low in the paint. So don't expect him to have any heroic moment like in 2006. Time for the Mavs to rebuild, frankly.

My prediction: 4-2 Spurs

#4 Portland Trailblazers vs. #5. Houston Rockets

Probably the most exciting matchup in the first round. The Blazers is well liked universially. They are young, they are energetic, they have good spirits, and they are disciplined. Roy is certainly a superstar in the making; Fernandez is super entertaining; Aldridge, Outlaw are all talented players, while they also have some extremely solid role players like Blake, Przybilla and Batum. However, experience is the issue. The Rockets, on the other hand, is full of experience. First round exit experience, that is. This team is no doubt talented. Yao, Artest, Battier, Scola. Their backcourt (Brooks, Lowry, Wafer) maybe is undersized but super quck. This would be heck of a matchup. Hard to say which one is an underdog, as their records are so close. While my love for Yao is forever, I just think that the Blazers has better chemistry and they have one thing that the Rockets lack, a finisher (Roy).

My prediction: 4-3 Blazers