Sunday, March 22, 2009

March Madness 2009


I do not follow college basketball much. First, I do not have that much time to follow so many sports, and I would rather stick with the NBA. Second, I did not go to college in the US so I do not have much history or ties or even hates with any college at all (rivalvies included). Third, college basketball games are not shown in Hong Kong until at the late stage of the Tournament, and it is very difficult to follow something that you do not have a chance to watch. Last but not least, I find it difficult to attach any emotion to any college team, since under the current system, almost all college star players are “one and done” type. Good players always opt for NBA draft after their freshman year. That is, just when you are getting some feeling about them during their first Tourney, and after the summer, they will be donning a Clippers’ or Grizzlies’ or Timberwolves’ jerseys. That is the most frustrating of all.

Anyway, each year, I always start to pay attention to college basketball when March Madness begins. One reason is that I have to maintain conversation with my hoop friends. Most of them are from US colleges and pay so much attention to the Tourney that nobody is listening to me or arguing with me about the NBA during that one-month period, especially after the All-Star Game and the trade deadline when things are mostly settled.

I mean, the Tourney is intriguing. The one-and-out elimination format is always exciting. People always pull for any underdogs, and it's always fun reading bloggers/fans trashing Duke. Every year. That's really something. I mean, it's OK for you to hate the Yankees. It's OK for you to hate the Knicks or the Lakers. It's OK for you to hate the USA or George W. Bush. However, why do you hate a college team? C'mon, these are just kids! The Duke players do not deserve to be hated! What happen to these people?


Back to this year's Tourney. I have quickly looked at the bracket this year. There are many familiar teams, big names like Duke, UCLA, UNC, Memphis, UConn, or usual suspects like Pittsburgh, Michigan, Syracuse, Arizona, Texas, LSU, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, South California, Louisville, Tennessee, etc. Too bad we wouldn’t be seeing Stephen Curry and his Davidson Wildcats this year for another Cinderella run; or any impossible run by George Mason. The only story that is worth mentioning maybe is the surprise early exit of #4 seed Wake Forest, who was knocked out by Cleveland State in the first round.

As of today, first weekend’s games were finished. Not many upsets so far, as we see all 4 first seeds as well as all 4 second seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen. UNC, Louisville, Pittsburgh and UConn are the favorite picks of the Final Four so far. Let's see if there is any more surprises from now on.

In fact, the most important reason for me to follow the college games is that I need to prepare myself for the upcoming NBA Draft. That is why I always watch or follow the college games (the Tourney) like a scout instead of a fan. I seldom take note of who’s winning and who’s losing. Instead, I focus on the performance of individual potential draftees. This year’s draftees, according to ESPN’s Chad Ford, are not that great, where the talent level drops significantly after the top 3 or top 5 picks. However, we all know that the Tourney can boost up the stock of the players dramatically. Like the way Derrick Rose jumped from top-5 to unanimous #1 pick last year after an impressive Tourney performance. Or the championship team of Florida, led by Joakim Noah and Al Horford, all the members saw them did pretty well in the draft after their repeat. I know it's a bit late, but here are the potential stars in the Tourney that will likely be seen in the Green Room in June’s draft this year:


Blake Griffin, PF, 6'10", Sophomore, Oklahoma (Comparison: Carlos Boozer)
- consensus No.1 pick this year. Griffin simply dominated at the college level this season. His NO.1 status is so locked up that not even a disappointing tournament would hurt his chance.

James Harden, SG, 6'4", Sophomore, Arizona State (Comparison: Manu Ginobili)
- mostly viewed as an undersized SG, Harden is a projected top-5 pick and is one of the best scorers in college. He's a lefty, together with the fact that he is a solid defender renders him the Ginobili comparison. It's hard to see him getting past Griffin, but a big Tourney would give him a safe No.2.

Jordan Hill, PF, 6'9", Junior, Arizona (Comparison: Chris Wilcox)

- Super athletic with huge upside. Already projected as a Top-5 pick, Hill may further solidify his Top-3 status with a big Tourney.

Hasheem Thabeet, C, 7'3", Junior, Connecticut (Comparison: Samuel Dalembert)

- The saying is, you can't teach 7'3". However, there's a reason why Thabeet did not come out of college for the past 2 years. He's just not that talented. This draft will give him the best chance because of the lack of big men as well as another productive year in UConn.

Jeff Teague, G, 6'2", Sophomore, Wake Forest (Comparison: Monta Ellis)
Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, 6'8", Freshman, Wake Forest (Comparison: Josh Smith)

- Teague is said to be Top-10 while Aminu is lottery bound. Would the surprise early exit of the Demon Deacons hurt their values? While both are talented, on the downside, scouts said Teague is no CP3 in terms of pure-PG plays while Aminu is a bit raw.

Willie Warren, G, 6'4", Freshman, Oklahoma (Comparison: Jason Terry)

- excellent athlete and probably the best freshman in the country. He's a SG right now, but people would like to see if he can display some playmaking ability in order to boost him to Top-5.

Gerald Henderson, SG, 6'5", Junior, Duke (Comparison: Courtney Lee)

- He has a versatile all-round game and is so far projected to be mid-to-late-first round pick. The problem is, he is perceived as a streaky shooter. Can he benefit from a big Tourney to sneak into the lottery?

Earl Clark, SF, 6'9", Junior, Louisville (Comparison: Marvin Williams)

- long and athletic, Clark can also play PF. Perceived as an inconsistent player, the Tourney can determine whether he is mid-first round pick or Top-10.

Ty Lawson, PG, 5'11", Junior, UNC (Comparison: Raymond Felton)

- a mid-first round pick, but if UNC could go as far as the Final Four or further, Lawson may have a chance to go to the lottery.

Tyreke Evans, G, Freshman, Memphis (Comparison: Larry Hughes)

- an excellent scorer who has just been transformed into a PG. While the Derrick Rose comparison is not fair to him, Evans is so far mid-to-late-first round pick. A good Tourney hopefully could boost his value, like Rose last year, to say lottery.

DaJuan Blair, PF, 6'7", Sophomore, Pittsburgh (Comparison: Paul Millsap)

- an undersized PF in pro level, but a big Tourney run will help him to go from late-first round to top 10.
DeMar DeRozan, SG, 6'6", Freshman, USC (Comparison: Gerald Green)

- one of the most athletic guys in the Tourney. Already lottery bound, the success of the Trojans will help DeRozan to boost up to Top-10.

Cole Aldrich, C, 6'11", Sophomore, Kansas (Comparison: Kevin Love)

- one of the rare centers in this draft. This year's draft does not have too many top big men, so a good Tourney would give him a chance to crack the lottery, if not the Top-10.

Jrue Holiday, PG, 6'3", Freshman, UCLA (Comparison: Delonte West)

- He is the most intersting case. He's the most talented player in the team, but is very raw. While most scouts would like him with another year in college (and become a Top-3 pick in 2010), a big Tourney could convince GMs that he's NBA ready. Pure on talent, he's for sure lottery bound.

***

Here are the potential lottery picks not participating in the Tournament:

Greg Monroe, PF, 6'11", Freshman, Georgetown (Comparison: Pau Gasol)

- old school, fundamentally sound. He's not strong enough to play big in the pro level, but nonetheless is Top-5 locked.

Stephen Curry, PG, 6'3", Junior, Davidson (Comparison: Mike Bibby)

- I think Curry should have come out of college after a terrific run last season. However, his stock are still high despite Davidson missing the Tourney this season. Fearless, with strong leadership and a superb scoring skills, people like the way he's transformed into a PG. A Top-10 pick.

No comments: