FInal Words on the Finals 2009

First, the Lakers deserved to win. Hate to say that, but the Lakers were simply a better team than the Magic. Better talent, better depth, better offense, better defense, better coaching. You name it.

Secondly, Kobe was the MVP by default. I don't think he played extremely well, and the championship was not won by him, but just because he's the best player in the winning team, he's the MVP. 32.4 PPG didn't pop any eyes, nor the 43% FG. Yes, 7.4 APG is certainly surprising, but let's get to that later. I mean, he didn't hit that much clutch shots. Alas, maybe except the blowout game 1, I can say that Kobe didn't won one game in the Finals. I agree with Bill Simmons, Kobe did NOT elevate his game to another level, nor has he changed a lot from last year.

Thirdly, the Lakers' supporting cast won the Finals. Pau Gasol, the so-called second banana, played it all out. He didn't have much touch (thanks to Kobe), but he hit a staggering 60% FG. Moreover, he played it tough to play good defense (which is underrated) against D-Howard. Derek Fisher simply saved the Lakers in Game 4 by staying clutch. Yes, he's slow and helpless in defense, but he just did what he does the best: shooting Js and initiating offense. Lamar Odom, against all odds, did not choke and played a pivotal role in helping the Lakers to win. His versatility, especially his defense, caused much trouble for the Magic, on both offense and defense. Andrew Bynum was still not the dominant big man people had expected him to be (at least not yet), but he did play with heart and his sheer presence in the paint at least partially slowed DH12.

But the huge factor is Trevor Ariza. IMHO, Kobe, Gasol, Fisher and Odom were basically doing whta everyone had expected them to do, and they were no better than what they were one year ago. But Ariza, he really transcended his game in the postseason. Reputed by his athleticism and defense, he had developed into a reliable 3-pt shooter (a la Rick Fox, Robert Horry mode) with a whopping 41.7% from the arc. Needless to say about his terrific defense (remember the clutch steals against the Nuggets?), but it's his ability to play inside-out that really rendered the Magic helpless. Ariza is a perfect player under the Lakers' system. It would be a grave mistake if the Lakers do not re-sign him (he can opt out of his contract this summer).

As for the Magic, well, they should have not regret. Look, they should have come to here in the first place. Imagine a heatlhy KG, or the Cavs with a long defender which could have got by trading away the expiring contract of Wally Szczerbiak. D-Howard was pathetically neutralized by the Lakers. Part of the reason is that he really has no low post move. Once again, it proves that a shooting team, even with a dominant big man like D12, could not win championship. The length, and to an extent their better defense, caused much trouble for the Magic's outside threats, namely Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus. The Cavs lost to the Magic because they did not have a second perimeter defender other than LBJ, but the Lakers got Kobe, Ariza and Odom to throw on Lewis and Turkoglu. Rookie Lee was simply overwhelmed, while Pietrus did play his best, only his best was not good enough to lead the Magic to a win. As I had said before, Rafer Alston shot the Magic out of the championship. Skip To My Lou simply is not a starting PG to win the championship.

Talking about PG, I must blame Stan Van Gundy. I think he simply played too much Jameer Nelson. Not that Alston is way better than Nelson, but from what I saw, Nelson was simply not ready. He's rusty, he looked tentative, and he's just out of sync. He's obviously still bothered by his shoulder injry, as his handle was extremely shaky. Maybe he did hit a few Js from outside, but as the PG, he failed to create open looks for teammates, and he was not able to break down the defense of the Lakers. But frankly, even for a 100% Nelson, which could burn Fisher with ease, the Magic would not be able to beat the Lakers.

Last but not least, I think the Lakers was lucky. First and foremost, thanks to the Grizzlies for the godsend Gasol. Secondly, thanks to the Magic for Ariza. Furthermore, they managed to stay healthy, while everybody else was having some not-so-minor injuries - Spurs' Ginobili, Celtics' KG, to name a few. Also, they were lucky to see the Magic, which had serious problem defending its paint. I wouldn't say the same about the Cavs, or the Celtics. They looked tentative during the season, only they were able to peak at the right time. Yes, that's because they have Phil Jackson. But strangely enough, though I said it before, I didn't see much triangle during the Finals, or the entire Playoffs. I think they really miss Tex Winter.

Looking ahead, the Lakers will be the team to beat. They still have Kobe, who is just 30, and they have the deepest roster in the League. That is, assuming that they keep Odom and Ariza. Yes, they need to address the aging issue of Fisher, but I see some potential in Shannon Brown. As always, it would be a challenge for the Lakers to repeat, and I would love to see what the Cavs would do this summer, knowing how desperate they are to convince LBJ to stay in Cleveland this year.

Yes, I'm still a Kobe-hater, and a Lakers-hater, and I much admit that I was just half-hearted when watching this Finals. I wish other teams, Magic, Cavs, Celtics, Spurs et al to come up with a better team next year and beat the Lakers.

BEAT L.A.!

NBA FInals Preview

Finals preview, let's break it down:

Guards: Fisher + Kobe + Shannon Brown + Farmar vs. Alston + Courtney Lee + Pietrus + Anthony Johnson

Adv: Lakers

Fisher is Lakers' weakest link, but arguably PG is also the weakest link in the Magic. Alston likely will have just 1 hot shooting night for every 3 poor shooting night. He will shoot the Magic to losses. Fisher is ultra slow but he's a much better shooter and facilitator than Alston. Brown will burn Anthony Johnson with his quickness.

Needless to say anything about Kobe. BTW, I never understand why people say Pietrus did a good job guarding LBJ. For goodness' sake LBJ averaged 38.5 PPG on 48.7% FG against the Magic. Yes he is LBJ, but the stats were still way higher than that against the Pistons and the Hawks. I don't see how Pietrus could stop Kobe.


Forwards: Ariza + Gasol + Odom + Luke Walton vs. Turkoglu + Rashard Lewis

Adv: Lakers

One of the Magic's main weapons is outside shooting ofTurkoglu and Lewis. While they took full advantage of the undersized Cavs to score, expect them to have more difficulty to score against Ariza and Odom. Kobe might spend some time guarding either of them too.

Another problem of the Magic is that they have basically ZERO depth at the forward position, whereas depth is exactly the forte of the Lakers. Ariza is young and athletic, Gasol will start at PF but finish at C, and Odom can play either SF or PF, and can play inside-outside. The Magic will get their hands full on such a 3-man rotation, not to mention the occasional contribution from Luke Walton.


C: Andrew Bynum + Gasol vs. Dwight Howard + Gotat

Adv: Magic x 2

I don't think I emphasize it enough, the advantage of Magic is HUGE. The red hot D12 is totally unstoppable right now. The worst nightmare for the Lakers? D12 is hitting his FTs lately. So the Lakers cannot throw out Josh Powell (and his 6 fouls-to-give) to do the "hack-the-superman" tactics.

On the other side, we have the "promising" Andrew Bynum, who is just a part-time here, averaging only 17 MPG this post season. He's so poor in defense that he was either in foul trouble or the coach simply benched him all the way. Against D12, Bynum will easily get fouled-out and/or DNP-CD. As for Gasol, well, we know he's soft and can't imagine how he could guard D12. Alas, how on earth could the Lakers slow down Dwight Howard if they couldn't even slow down Nene and K-Mart? But Gasol will score some in the mid-range against D12.

Coach: Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy

Adv: Even

OK, my personal preference aside, to be fair, SVG is a good coach who maximizes his team's performance. He's flexible and makes changes when necessary. I think he's a better coach than his bro, Jeff. He only talks too much. Yikes.

As for the Zen Master, well, frankly, I have serious reservation. It seems like since the retirement of assistant coach Tex Winter (the architect of the Triangle Offense), Phil is no longer the same. Many a time, he made questionable moves and he simply didn't have the midas touch on some key moments that he used to have. Worse, his team is super inconsistent and doesn't play first-class defense. So, maybe we should credit at least part of his past success to Tex Winter then?


Gameplays:

The greatest strengths of the Lakers are their versatility and depth. If the Lakers could share the ball like they did in Game 6 of the Conf. Finals, the Magic will have serious trouble guarding them. The Lakers can score in the paint, mid-range and even the 3s. Kobe, Odom and Gasol, all of them can score or pass, which makes them ultra difficult to guard. In addition, if the Lakers run fastbreaks, they can use their depth and athleticism to wear down the Magic. Last but not least, they have Kobe to bail them out in close games.

On the other hand, the Magic will continue their inside-out game play. They have huge advantage by posting up Howard against the soft frontcourt of the Lakers. If the Lakers decide to double-team him, this will generate tons of open looks for the Magic's shooting stars like Turk, Lewis, Lee and Pietrus. However, for one-on-one, the Magic's perimeter players are not that easy to score against Kobe, Ariza and Odom.

The wildcard? Lakers' defense.

Although people are saying that Nelson might return, but given his shoulder problem, his contribution will be limited, more a mental boost than anything. So he's not a wildcard. The wildcard is whether the Lakers can stay focused and stop the Magic. We have seen them played terrific defense before, when they were concentrated enough. If they can somehow control the damage of D12 (c'mon, you can't STOP him) and avoid open looks on the perimeter, the Lakers will beat the Magic with its versatility and depth. On the other hand, if they become lethargic in defense and try to out-score opponents, the Magic will prevail.

Prediction: Lakers in 6.

Conference Finals Preview

EAST

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic

8-0 so far. Well rested and full of energy, this year, nobody is hungrier than the Cavs. Excellent chemistry, playing with heart and hustle, tough rebounding and defending, peak at the right time, what to complain? Plus, an unstoppable LBJ. Have you seen all the crazy shots that LBJ hoisted and made recently? Suggest you hit youtube and you'll know how surreal things are right now. With LBJ drawing defenders, teammates are getting all the open looks . Without a doubt they are playing the best basketball right now.

Now, please stop all the “what if KG had been in uniform”questions, the Magic beat the defending champion and is right here, now and present. Forget the Celtics. The Magic win games by 3-pt shooting and defense. Nobody relies on outside shots more than the Magic, and they have enough shooters to get the job done. Meanwhile, they have DH12 dominating the paint.

For this series, LBJ will do it all, as usual. Driving to the hoop, hitting outside shots, setting up teammates, rebounding, defending opponents' ace, you name it. Expect him to post yet another round of 30-8-6 stats. I repeat, no one can stop LBJ right now. Meanwhile, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Gibson and Sczcerbiak will take turn to hit the open 3s. Big Z is a super efficient scorer who also rebounds well. I like the idea of starting Varejao instead of Big Ben. Varejao is the designated energy guy who is obviously more active and athletic than Big Ben, who is really washed out at this stage of his career. The Cavs will once again play suffocating defense and will have a huge advantage in rebounding.

I don't think DH12 will be very effective against the Cavs' tough defense, but he will get his share of double-double as usual. On the other hand, Magic's outside shooting will be a threat to the Cavs. LBJ may be able to contain either one of Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, but they will have trouble stopping the other one. Either Varejao will take up Lewis, which will make Ilgauskas being exposed to play DH12 one-on-one, or Delonte West will take up the assignment to cover Turk, but will give up a lot of size. The Lee/ Pietrus combo is athletic as well. The worst nightmare for the Magic would be LBJ getting Dwight Howard into foul trouble.

To make it short, I don't think the Cavs would be able to sweep the Magic, but with LBJ playing like a superhuman, the Cavs should have no problem finishing them off.

Cavs in 6.


WEST

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

After much drama, the Lakers advanced to the Conference Finals, just as expected since the very first day of the season. From the Rockets series, we learned that the Lakers are certainly not invincible. They could play with unacceptable lethargy. Don't blame Odom's minor injury, inconsistency has been their problem throughout the season. However, they are still the deepest team in the league. We saw them trashing the Rockets by 40 pts. And we saw them winning games just when needed, like Game 7. If just by watching Game 5 and 7, you will never understand why the series was pushed to 7 games. When they are focused and play hard, they dominated on both ends. But they were not able to play hard every night.

On the other side, we have the hottest team in the West. Thanks to the arrival of Billups, the Nuggets have transformed into a genuine elite team. Billups provides much needed leadership to the team. 'Melo has been shooting the lights out, while the entire team are full of fire and energy. In terms of chemistry and intensity, they are the exact opposite of the Lakers.

So what's the take? The Lakers can win at the frontcourt. Gasol should have no problem scoring down low. K-Mart is a thug, but don't mix that up with good defender. After surgeries on both knees, his defense rotation is slow and he doesn't have any lift. Nene flat out can't play D period. Odom and Ariza would take turn to score on 'Melo. Chris Anderson is a hustle guy who, well, hustles. OK, I don't count on Bynum, but Lakers would easily out-score and out-rebound the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, 'Melo, assumed guarded by Kobe, will not score as easily as in the last two rounds, but he's so quick and versatile that it would be insane to expect him to score less than 25 PPG. Nene is a legitimate low post scorer. It would be interesting to see how the Lakers' bench to stop J.R. Smith's long range bomb. But the biggest advantage of the Nuggets is at PG. Chauncey Billups could score 30 pts by hitting his deadeye 3s, or get 12 assists by setting up teammates. If I were Phil Jackson, I will sacrifice the outside scoring and charge-taking of Fisher and start Jordan Farmar at PG. There's no chance that Fisher should be able to guard Billups. He's just too washed up. I would even play Shannon Brown ahead of Fisher . So if the Lakers has supreme advantage in the frontcourt and rebounding, they just give back the Nuggets the edge at PG and outside shooting.

So we come to Kobe. We have seen him taking less shots and scoring less this season Yes, with such a deep roster, he doesn't need to score 50 pts to win. He still scored all those tough shots (though I have been critical of his shot selection), and he can score 40 pts with ease. He could play tough defense (e.g. against 'Melo). But the problem is, I do not see a Black Mamba in Kobe. I do not see him showing the much needed killer instinct. Come to think about it, the Nuggets have no Artest or Battier to guard Kobe. It's clear that the Nuggets can only double-team Kobe, a strategy George Karl might not take due to the presence of many outside shooters in LA. On defense, Kobe is the one who can stop 'Melo. Simply put, this series is entirely on Kobe. It's for him to win. Or lose.

Lakers in 6. (Imagine David Stern checking the TV rating of Denver and LA, and then make a phone call to the refs to ensure that the Kobe-LBJ duel happen.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic, Thu, Jan 29, 2009

Magic scouting report

• You just love the way the Magic plays: full of team work, fluid ball movement, totally unselfish. Their basic strategy is either to shoot the 3 or get the ball to Dwight Howard inside to work it out. They have excellent outside shooters in Lewis, Turkoglu and recently Jameer Nelson. They would use a simple screen in the high post to get the shooters open; alternatively, they would drive and kick and find some open looks. And their shooters never fail to deliver.
• DH12 is basically unstoppable in the paint, esp. against the half-dead, half-retired Ben Wallace, or the Flop King Varejao. He remains a monster in rebounds.
• Turk is the designated point forward, in particular when he was leading the second unit. Never an athletic player, he possesses strong basketball IQ and did a nice job in initiating offense. His shots were a bit off today, but he still scored 19 pts and he still hit a couple of tough shots. Surprisingly he is a very solid rebounder (11 boards).
• All-star reserve Rashard Lewis is a smooth shooter who could score everywhere: outside shots, 3s and post-up turnaround Js.
• Another all-star reserve Jameer Nelson is a tough cookie. For sure he’s not a prototype PG, he does not focus on dishing or setting up teammates but that’s because the Magic’s system does not rely too much on the PG’s brilliance but overall teamwork. Instead, Nelson drives hard to the rim, scored on mid range J or 3s. In fact, IMHO, it was Nelson’s timely outside shots (4-for-6 3-pt) that have killed the Cavaliers.
• Rookie Courtney Lee is a very serviceable role player. He plays hard and runs hard. Scored a couple of shots, esp. a beautiful fastbreak layup in which he managed to hang in the air long enough to get away with LBJ’s hands and scored on reverse.
• Yes, they are not deep on the bench, but both Pietrus and Anthony Johnson did a not-so-spectacular but nonetheless serviceable job. I could hardly see Tony Battie play though.
• As for defense, the Magic played very sloppy defense in the first half, failing to rotate and many a time ended up leaving the Cavs wide open in the paint. At the same time, they were not able to slow down the wing players. However, they tightened up their D late in Q3 and throughout Q4, forced a few turnovers, made a couple of steals, and then they hit a few 3s, and a few fastbreak baskets and just like that, they had a 20-2 run which ended up leading by 99-74 pts with 5.20 mins left. The rest is history. No, they were not able to shut down LBJ, but at least they were successful in preventing LBJ from driving the lane, and the King always settled for outside jumpshots. And he was not sharp tonight.
• Just for this night, the Magic looks like a legitimate title contender and kudos to Coach Stan Van Gundy for his ability to maximize the output of his not-so-complete roster by taking advantage of the special skills of his players.