Raptors send O'Neal to Heat for Marion

The trade:

Toronto Raptors agreed to trade center Jermaine O'Neal and swingman Jamario Moon (with a first round pick) to Miami Heat for ex-Suns Shawn Marion and guard Marcus Banks (and $3m cash).

For the Raptors:

Hailed as an up-n-coming team, the Raptors has been flat out horrible this season. Not only they failed to elevate to another level as expected, they are now second last in the East and can basically be ruled out of the playoffs even though there are still 30 games to play.

Apparently the management feels the same too. Yes, they were hit by injuries (Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh, JO). But even so, they shouldn't be that bad, ay? OK, they fired ex-COY Sam Mitchell (long due), but things didn't get any better with Canadian coach Jay Triano. With 2006 No.1 pick Andrea Bargnani finally coming to perform (yes, I traded him for JO early this season in my fantasy game, which looked good back then but obviously I gave him up too soon), they finally abandoned the JO experiment after just 50+ games.

As to why the JO trade failed, while there are many reasons, I believe the main problem is that both JO and Bosh are low post scorers who need the ball to be effective. Ideally, they should have turned JO into a role player, i.e. focusing on rebound, defense and facilitation while playing along with Bosh, and then taking the lead to score when Bosh sits. Somehow it never happened. At the same time, they saw Bargnani play extremely well after a horrible November. The problem is, even though he likes to shoot the 3s, Bargnani can't play at 3, since he can't catch up with the quick SF in the league. On the other hand, he did a passable job in blks and rebs. As such, the ideal frontcourt of Bargnani-Bosh-JO is not viable.

Given the age and the injury history, JO is obviously the odd-man out among the three. Matrix is quite ideal because they desperately need some scoring from the swingman position, because Anthony Parker or Jamario Moon are not scoring enough, while Jason Kapono only shoots 3s. Moreover, JO's contract is until 09-10 while Matrix's will expire after this season. So the Raptors can get some cost saving (10th highest in the league with $72m payroll this year) should they decide not to re-sign Matrix. Since they have all but given up this season, they can use the remaining 25-30 games to take a good look at Matrix.


For the Heat,

It's simple, size. Rookie Joel Anthony (6'9") is helplessly undersized at C, while Canadian Jamaal Magloire struggled mightily, start or not. With JO they have a legit C. WIth Dywane Wade shooting and slashing, JO has the entire paint for him to score. Udonis Haslem can now play at his natural position at PF. They don't need JO to be a 20-10 guy anymore, as they can settle him to be just 15-8. Matrix is expendable since he was never comfortable playing in Miami, as evidenced by his sharp drop in production (12.0 PPG 8.6 RPG this season vs. career avg of 17.9 PPG and 10.0 RPG).

Never underestimate the inclusion of Jamario Moon. Moon is an athletic player who is heavily underrated becaus he can't score much. However, he's a perfect role player, who plays hard and does all the dirty little works. He would be an ideal facilitator between Wade and JO. With Mario Chalmers running the game at PG and Haslem resume his old PF position, suddenly, the Heat have a complete lineup. While it will be a bit stretch to say they are contender now, but on paper they should be able to compete against any team not named Celtics or Cavaliers.

Furthermore, with JO manning the paint, Wade now needs not to take up all the scoring load and should see more open looks as a result of some double-teamming of JO. And we have seen how the Flash could single-handedly lift up the team to another level given a similar situation (2006 championship run).

What they give up is (1) salary flexibility. JO's $23m salary next year, which means they won't be able to make bid for any of this year's free agents (most notably Carlos Boozer); also without Matrix's expiring contracts, they will not be able to acquire talents from teams who want to dump salaries (Amare of Suns, for example); and (2) potential injury of JO, who's never played 82 games in any year and never played more than 70 games since, gasp, 03-04.

It's a calculated gamble for the Heat and even if it fails, they do not lose much and they still have the cap space for the 2010 mega free agency.

2009 Jan monthly review

EAST

Atlanta Division

Boston had won 11 straight after the embarrassing mini-slump during late Dec to early Jan. They returned to the top of the league again. Good thing is, Ray Allen has been playing like an all-star; bad thing is, Ray Allen was snubbed from the All-Star Game.

Toronto struggled without Jose Calderon, losing 7 straight. But during such losing stretch, they got some strong performance by Andrea Bargnani. Not just shooting the 3s, Bargnani was scoring (19.8 PPG) and rebounding (6.2 RPG). I still think the Raptors have a decent roster, esp. an enviable big man rotation of Bargnani, Bosh and O'Neal. They should be a better team.

Finally, we sawIguodala getting back into his old shape, and Philly were winning games and getting back some respect . But who would have guessed before the season that Elton Brand is coming off the bench and yet struggling mightily? Ladies and gentleman, your 2008 high priced free agent signing!

Central Division

Whenever Cleveland were flirting with the idea of being the best team in the league, they would inevitably lose some games, such as those two losses to fellow contenders, Lakers and Magic. Give credits to them though, as people are overlooked by the fact that they are having a perfect home record (22-0 and running) without two starters: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (just been back) and Delonte West (back around All-Star Weekend).

The Pistons had a horrible 6-9 record in January and has lost 7 of the last 10 games. I don’t know how to put it. Yes, you can blame Iverson, for obvious reason. Maybe Rip Ham's injury too. But what is more disappointing is the overall lack of effort. I watched a Pistons game last month, they simply had no energy at all. They just don’t fight. Period. Oh and BTW, do you know that they were actually the only team among the top 8 teams in the East with a negative point differential (-0.2) ?

The Bucks really had bad luck. Just when Andrew Bogut came back from injury, and they finally started to show some life by winning games, Michael Redd blew his knee and torn his ACL and MCL. Season over. Sad.

Southeast Division

Couldn’t think of a bigger month for the Magic: wins over top teams like Spurs, Lakers and Cavaliers, briefly topped the league with a 33-8 record, and then three players named to the All-Star Game (although unjustly). They have a relatively easy schedule in Feb, see if they can regain the #1 spotlater on.

A 8-7 Jan record is all the Bobcats need to gain respects from the league. Well, maybe I should also mention that those wins include over powerhouses like Celtics, Blazers, Suns, and yes, the Lakers. Who would even question Larry Brown again? Yes, just like in his past stints, he made major roster movements the very first season he arrived town, but you can’t deny that the team has improved substantially and Diaw has been playing like an all-star after coming to Charlotte.

I was checking the Heat’s roster the other day, and was shocked that the roster was absolutely D-League level. That is, other than D-Wade. Did Wade know, back when he was signing the extension in 2007, that he would be starting along with a second-round rookie (Chalmers) and an undrafted rookie (Joel Anthony), a limping Matrix and Haslem? And I will never understand why it took 40+ games for Coach Erik Spoelstra to realize that they are better off starting a 7-footer at C (Jamaal Magloire) than a 6’9” rookie (Joel Anthony). Amazing.


WEST

Northwest Division

It is really a bad month for Carmelo Anthony: broke his shooting hand, missed 10 games and then was snubbed from the All Star Game. Can’t say these three things are not connected. Luckily the Nuggets still managed to maintain its lead in the division (by 1.5 game over the Blazers).

Bad news for Portland: starting PG Steve Blake is out (separate right shoulder). Good news: backup Sergio Rodriguez and rookie Jerryd Bayless fitted in admirably. They were able to take advantage of an easy schedule and posted a 9-5 record in January. We have seen the potential of Oden, his most immiment need is to solve the foul-prone problem.

I think Utah Jazz is heavily underrated, just like his coach. Yes, they are at #9 in the West, but just 1/2 game behind the Suns. They have played without Boozer since Nov 19, and have gone through various injuries of D-Will, Okur and Millsap. Latest is that AK47 had an ankle surgery and will be out for at least 3-4 weeks. Yes, without AK47 it will be even harder for them to get into the playoffs, but people should never overlook the tremendous effort that D-Will and Jerry Sloan have put in.

The Wolves showed some signs of life when they posted a 10-4 record in Jan, prompting the media flirting with the idea of naming Kevin McHale a COY candidate andAl Jefferson being an All-Star. Slow down, fellows, not too soon. I think the recent success has more to do with shifting Randy Foye from PG to SG. And I agree that, although it’s not a big deal, Kevin Love not participating the Rookie Challenge is a real snub.

OK, the Team-formerly-known-as-Sonics reached 11 wins and is no longer the worst team in the league. Bravo.

Pacific Division

The coming-out party of Andrew Bynum (42 pts, 15 rebs) against the Clippers provide something to look forward to, only is that Bynum sprained his right knee (as opposed to his surgically repaired left knee) in the game against the Grizz on Jan 31. He will be out 8-12 weeks, which is a huge blow to the team. Feb will be a challenge for the Lakers, who will play 9 out of 13 games on the road, including stops at Boston and Cleveland.

You actually feel bad about the Clippers. No, really. With Baron Davis, Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Al Thornton and rookie sensation Eric Gordon, who would have expected them to be dead last in the league? Yes, blame injuries. But it is entirely acceptable if you suspect that all these players are taking their time slowly nursing their injuries instead of rushing back.

The Suns is a mystery. They are flat out mediocre. Well, at least they can’t blame Shaq, who’s been averaging 19.8 PPG and 9.0 RPG in Jan. Amare also averaged 19.7 PPG and 7.1 RPG, while Nash’s number is also respetable: 12.7 PPG and 11.9 APG. So what exactly is wrong with them? I don’t think they know the answer either. Guess that's exactly their problem: clueless. No more SSOL (Seven Seconds Or Less), but then they can’t excel in conventional setup. Guess they are real lost.

Southwest Division

Now standing firmly at #2 in the West after the win over the Hornets, the Spurs had a strong Jan, despite their worst loss of 87-109 at Philly. It is no coincidence that the Spurs started to play better defense and Manu Ginobili is regaining his all-star form.

I think the Rockets faced more injuries than the Jazz, only is that the Rockets have a deeper roster. Coach Rick Adelman deserves all the props by posting a respectable 29-19 record despite all these injuries. However, even assuming all the players are healthy, say after the All-Star Game, how could they generate optimal chemistry comes playoffs time when they have played so few games together?

The Hornets are not the same without Tysan Chandler. CP3 has boosted his scoring and rebounding in the absence of Chandler. But they could not win that way. For the 7 games when CP3 scored 30 or more pts this season, they only won 3 of them. The problem is, even before the injury, Chandler was not the same player as he was last year. He didn't rebound hard and block enough shots. What happened to him during summer? Some heart transplant?

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic, Thu, Jan 29, 2009

Magic scouting report

• You just love the way the Magic plays: full of team work, fluid ball movement, totally unselfish. Their basic strategy is either to shoot the 3 or get the ball to Dwight Howard inside to work it out. They have excellent outside shooters in Lewis, Turkoglu and recently Jameer Nelson. They would use a simple screen in the high post to get the shooters open; alternatively, they would drive and kick and find some open looks. And their shooters never fail to deliver.
• DH12 is basically unstoppable in the paint, esp. against the half-dead, half-retired Ben Wallace, or the Flop King Varejao. He remains a monster in rebounds.
• Turk is the designated point forward, in particular when he was leading the second unit. Never an athletic player, he possesses strong basketball IQ and did a nice job in initiating offense. His shots were a bit off today, but he still scored 19 pts and he still hit a couple of tough shots. Surprisingly he is a very solid rebounder (11 boards).
• All-star reserve Rashard Lewis is a smooth shooter who could score everywhere: outside shots, 3s and post-up turnaround Js.
• Another all-star reserve Jameer Nelson is a tough cookie. For sure he’s not a prototype PG, he does not focus on dishing or setting up teammates but that’s because the Magic’s system does not rely too much on the PG’s brilliance but overall teamwork. Instead, Nelson drives hard to the rim, scored on mid range J or 3s. In fact, IMHO, it was Nelson’s timely outside shots (4-for-6 3-pt) that have killed the Cavaliers.
• Rookie Courtney Lee is a very serviceable role player. He plays hard and runs hard. Scored a couple of shots, esp. a beautiful fastbreak layup in which he managed to hang in the air long enough to get away with LBJ’s hands and scored on reverse.
• Yes, they are not deep on the bench, but both Pietrus and Anthony Johnson did a not-so-spectacular but nonetheless serviceable job. I could hardly see Tony Battie play though.
• As for defense, the Magic played very sloppy defense in the first half, failing to rotate and many a time ended up leaving the Cavs wide open in the paint. At the same time, they were not able to slow down the wing players. However, they tightened up their D late in Q3 and throughout Q4, forced a few turnovers, made a couple of steals, and then they hit a few 3s, and a few fastbreak baskets and just like that, they had a 20-2 run which ended up leading by 99-74 pts with 5.20 mins left. The rest is history. No, they were not able to shut down LBJ, but at least they were successful in preventing LBJ from driving the lane, and the King always settled for outside jumpshots. And he was not sharp tonight.
• Just for this night, the Magic looks like a legitimate title contender and kudos to Coach Stan Van Gundy for his ability to maximize the output of his not-so-complete roster by taking advantage of the special skills of his players.