Conference Finals Preview

EAST

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic

8-0 so far. Well rested and full of energy, this year, nobody is hungrier than the Cavs. Excellent chemistry, playing with heart and hustle, tough rebounding and defending, peak at the right time, what to complain? Plus, an unstoppable LBJ. Have you seen all the crazy shots that LBJ hoisted and made recently? Suggest you hit youtube and you'll know how surreal things are right now. With LBJ drawing defenders, teammates are getting all the open looks . Without a doubt they are playing the best basketball right now.

Now, please stop all the “what if KG had been in uniform”questions, the Magic beat the defending champion and is right here, now and present. Forget the Celtics. The Magic win games by 3-pt shooting and defense. Nobody relies on outside shots more than the Magic, and they have enough shooters to get the job done. Meanwhile, they have DH12 dominating the paint.

For this series, LBJ will do it all, as usual. Driving to the hoop, hitting outside shots, setting up teammates, rebounding, defending opponents' ace, you name it. Expect him to post yet another round of 30-8-6 stats. I repeat, no one can stop LBJ right now. Meanwhile, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Gibson and Sczcerbiak will take turn to hit the open 3s. Big Z is a super efficient scorer who also rebounds well. I like the idea of starting Varejao instead of Big Ben. Varejao is the designated energy guy who is obviously more active and athletic than Big Ben, who is really washed out at this stage of his career. The Cavs will once again play suffocating defense and will have a huge advantage in rebounding.

I don't think DH12 will be very effective against the Cavs' tough defense, but he will get his share of double-double as usual. On the other hand, Magic's outside shooting will be a threat to the Cavs. LBJ may be able to contain either one of Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, but they will have trouble stopping the other one. Either Varejao will take up Lewis, which will make Ilgauskas being exposed to play DH12 one-on-one, or Delonte West will take up the assignment to cover Turk, but will give up a lot of size. The Lee/ Pietrus combo is athletic as well. The worst nightmare for the Magic would be LBJ getting Dwight Howard into foul trouble.

To make it short, I don't think the Cavs would be able to sweep the Magic, but with LBJ playing like a superhuman, the Cavs should have no problem finishing them off.

Cavs in 6.


WEST

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

After much drama, the Lakers advanced to the Conference Finals, just as expected since the very first day of the season. From the Rockets series, we learned that the Lakers are certainly not invincible. They could play with unacceptable lethargy. Don't blame Odom's minor injury, inconsistency has been their problem throughout the season. However, they are still the deepest team in the league. We saw them trashing the Rockets by 40 pts. And we saw them winning games just when needed, like Game 7. If just by watching Game 5 and 7, you will never understand why the series was pushed to 7 games. When they are focused and play hard, they dominated on both ends. But they were not able to play hard every night.

On the other side, we have the hottest team in the West. Thanks to the arrival of Billups, the Nuggets have transformed into a genuine elite team. Billups provides much needed leadership to the team. 'Melo has been shooting the lights out, while the entire team are full of fire and energy. In terms of chemistry and intensity, they are the exact opposite of the Lakers.

So what's the take? The Lakers can win at the frontcourt. Gasol should have no problem scoring down low. K-Mart is a thug, but don't mix that up with good defender. After surgeries on both knees, his defense rotation is slow and he doesn't have any lift. Nene flat out can't play D period. Odom and Ariza would take turn to score on 'Melo. Chris Anderson is a hustle guy who, well, hustles. OK, I don't count on Bynum, but Lakers would easily out-score and out-rebound the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, 'Melo, assumed guarded by Kobe, will not score as easily as in the last two rounds, but he's so quick and versatile that it would be insane to expect him to score less than 25 PPG. Nene is a legitimate low post scorer. It would be interesting to see how the Lakers' bench to stop J.R. Smith's long range bomb. But the biggest advantage of the Nuggets is at PG. Chauncey Billups could score 30 pts by hitting his deadeye 3s, or get 12 assists by setting up teammates. If I were Phil Jackson, I will sacrifice the outside scoring and charge-taking of Fisher and start Jordan Farmar at PG. There's no chance that Fisher should be able to guard Billups. He's just too washed up. I would even play Shannon Brown ahead of Fisher . So if the Lakers has supreme advantage in the frontcourt and rebounding, they just give back the Nuggets the edge at PG and outside shooting.

So we come to Kobe. We have seen him taking less shots and scoring less this season Yes, with such a deep roster, he doesn't need to score 50 pts to win. He still scored all those tough shots (though I have been critical of his shot selection), and he can score 40 pts with ease. He could play tough defense (e.g. against 'Melo). But the problem is, I do not see a Black Mamba in Kobe. I do not see him showing the much needed killer instinct. Come to think about it, the Nuggets have no Artest or Battier to guard Kobe. It's clear that the Nuggets can only double-team Kobe, a strategy George Karl might not take due to the presence of many outside shooters in LA. On defense, Kobe is the one who can stop 'Melo. Simply put, this series is entirely on Kobe. It's for him to win. Or lose.

Lakers in 6. (Imagine David Stern checking the TV rating of Denver and LA, and then make a phone call to the refs to ensure that the Kobe-LBJ duel happen.

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers, Fri, Jan 9 2009

a scouting report on both teams:

Cleveland Cavaliers

• LeBron played like a MVP. He’s completely smooth. He didn’t force any moves or shots, but just following the flow. Seems like he’s come to a stage that he would let the game come to him. He’s unstoppable when penetrating, splitting double team easily. He hitall the shots. layups, floaters, 3s and fadaways, even when there’s a hand on his face. He played hard, even diving for loose balls; and most important of all, he played excellent defense, esp. against Paul Pierce, both pick-n-roll and iso situations. Oh, and he hustled for blocks too! In the past, people (including yours truly) always complained about his defense, but apparently he has put considerable works on that, studied enough films and apparently he played like a terrific defender. Or maybe it’s just this game, as he said beforehand that he had circled this date right when the schedule come out. Simply put, he wanted to win this game badly and he for sure gave his best.


• Mo Williams is an amazing scoring threat. He hit some tough shots.


• Varejao was surprisingly aggressive in offense, but his moves and shots were just too ugly to watch. As usual, he hustled a lot, grabbed rebounds and made some good defense by flopping.


• Delonte West did a passable job as a role player. He facilitated the offense, hit open shots and palyed defense.


• Once again, Big Ben is completely washed out.


• The bench (Boobie Gibson, J.J. Hickson, Wally Szczerbiak) was their weakest link. The Cs were able to outscore the Cavs whenever their starters (in particular LBJ) sat. They missed “Big Z” Ilgauskas badly, since they had to rely on J.J. Hickson as backup big man.


• The Cavs played with energy and were 100% focused. They played with confidence and were determined. While the Cavs didn’t need to worry about offense when LBJ was basically scoring at will anywhere on the court, it is their stellar defense that won the game. As said, LBJ played first class defense on PP, in addition, the Cavs was very aggressive guarding the perimeter, challenging shots and shut out passing lanes. They had terrific defense rotation and stole many balls while the Cs were definitely over-passing. As always, defense won games.

Boston Celtics

• PP was fully covered by LBJ, ended up forcing shots and drives. He was also careless with the ball, letting the ball being stolen several times (esp. by LBJ). He was also helpless defending LBJ. Don’t blame him, LBJ was simply superman tonight.


• KG played hard and did a good job in rebounding. However, except for a few nice lob passes from Rondo resulting in dunks and easy layups early on, for most of the game, KG always settled for outside jumpers. Give credits to the Cavs’ tight defense which made him hard to stay in the paint.


• As usual, Ray Allen hit his outside shots. Arguably, he’s the best among the Big Three.


• Rondo was terrific in running offense and finding open teammates. His court vision is superb. He played ok defense too and rebounded well as a guard. However, he simply couldn’t shoot, be it a layup, an open J or even FT.


• Kendrick Perkins benefitted from the nice passing job of Rondo and scored some easy layups in the paint. However, he is slow in defense rotation, letting the Cavs’ big penetrating at will, and even grabbing offensive rebounds.


• The Celtics’ bench was actually ok and arguably won the battle against the second team of the Cavs. I like Leon Powe. But they would love to have James Posey to guard LBJ!


• Overall, the Celtics were severely bothered by the defense of the Cavs. Their reaction to such top notch defense is over-passing. And when they lost their confidence, they started to look tentative. On defense, they have no clue to slow down LBJ and were slow in defense rotation. They didn’t play with their usual intensity in defense. They clearly were outplayed, out-hustled and outscored by the Cavs. They were so desperate that they resolved to do the Hack-a-Ben (Wallce) strategy late in Q4! What a shame!

Conclusion

• From the bottom of my heart, I don’t believe the Celtics are as lousy as this game shows, nor the Cavs are so superb as this game shows. Afterall, it’s just one out of 82 regular season games. However, the domination by the Cavs in this game will for sure have some not-so-small psychological factor when the two teams inevitably meet in the playoffs.