Finally, it's playoffs time! As said before, I am not too thrilled about this postseason, simply because there is not much suspense. Namely, I do not think anyone can knock out the Lakers in the West. At the same time, the Cavs look so strong that seems like no one in the East can beat them, in particular that KG's knee problem has been worse than expected.
Fortunately, the first round should at least generate some drama. In the West, the Nuggets finished at #2, but they will face the Hornets, who is not an ordinary #7 team. And who will not be excited about the Spurs-Mavs All-Texas matchup? And I haven't mentioned the traditional tough matchup between the #4 (Blazers) and #5 (Rockets). In the East, could the defending champion, without KG, be able to fend off the red hot Bulls? What about Wade & Co against the now playoffs-tested Hawks? Anyway, here's my round 1 preview/prediction:
EAST
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons
Yes, a replay of 2007 Conference Finals. If the Pistons can't stop LBJ in 2007, I can't see how they could do it this year. The Cavs have the best record, including a surreal 39-2 home record. They finally have Mo Williams as a legit second banana, and a deep bench featuring Daniel Gibson, Wally Sczcerbiak, Anderson Varejao and Joe Smith. Losing Big Ben may hurt a bit but I don't think they miss him that much. Yes, the Pistons may be not as bad as its record show, but without Billups, they are not the same. First, they will have difficulty guarding Mo Williams, and I haven't mentioned how they could stop LBJ. Oops, I said that already. As Rasheed Wallace continued to age and becoming more and more disinterested, their frontline is not as formidable as before. Yes, the Pistons is a team in the past.
Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #.7 Chicago Bulls
The biggest news of course is that KG will definitely miss the 1st round, and might miss the entire playoffs. A huge blow to the defending champion. I mean, they are still an elite team with good coaching. However, the Bulls are better than it appears. Don't be fooled by its record or standing, they are a decent team with depth after the trade for John Salmons and Brad Miller. Salmons' presence is particularly important now that Luol Deng is out. These, plus KG's unavailability, will make this series closer than people think. But it is still difficult to see Vinny Del Negro beating Doc Rivers and the entire Celtics coaching staff. I mean, this ain't no Hollywood movie, right? A rookie coach leading an underdog to beat the reigning champion? That's too dramatic in real life, with or without KG.
Prediction: 4-3 Celtics
#3 Orlando Magic vs. #6 Philadelphia Sixers
Like the Celtics, the Magic is haunted by injury as well. Turkoglu twisted his ankle towards the end of the season and missed the last two games. I have said before, Turkoglu is the second most important player in the team. Not Lewis, and certainly not (the injured) Nelson. Without a healthy Turkoglu, I don't see the Magic going deep in the playoffs. However, I still think they should have no problem finishing the Sixers, who had lost 6 in a row before beating the 2nd team of Cavs in OT in the 82nd game of the season. BTW, the Magic swept the Sixers in the regular season.
Prediction: 4-1 Magic
#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. #5 Miami Heat
As always, the #4-#5 matchup is the most exciting. The Hawks pushed the Celtics to the limit last year, and after that, the Hawks built on that and became a genuine elite team this season. Now the Heat. D-Wade played it all out to lead a team of mediocre players and rookies to #5 in the East, quite an accomplishment. Now, can he still have the mojo to carry the team to more success in the playoffs like what he did in 2006? I think so. I know the Hawks is a more complete team and they have Joe Johnson and Josh Smith and Mike Bibby, they play terrific defense, but I want some Wade moments. The playoffs need some drama, the league need some drama. Wade must do some magic to upset the Hawks and face LBJ in the 2nd round.
Prediction: 4-3 Wade, oops, I mean Heat
WEST
#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Utah Jazz
OK, Andrew Bynum is back, and he looks good in those brief moment on the court. On paper, no team is deeper than the Lakers. And they have Kobe. They also have Phil Jackson. What to complain? Yes, they still win games by offense more than defense, and sometimes they don't have that killer instinct to finish opponents. But guess that should be enough to finish the Jazz. It's a strange case why the Jazz faltered like that late in the season, in no coincidence when Boozer returned to the lineup. If I have to pick a reason, guess the impending free agency of Boozer, plus his diminished play time after the surge of Paul Millsap has somehow hurt their chemistry. Anyway, facing the Lakers probably is their worst nightmare, not to mention the fact that Phil Jackson always owns Jerry Sloan in the past.
My prediction: 4-1 Lakers
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets
I have never been a fan of the Nuggets. I believe that they grabbed the #2 spot in the West is just a result of the injuries suffered by the Spurs, the Rockets and the Hornets. Yes, Chauncey "Big Shot" Billups is a huge addition to a team that lacks leadership. But they are still the Nuggets. On the other hand, the Hornets have solid players in CP3, Peja, David West, Tysan Chandler and playoffs specialist James Posey. So maybe a potential upset? Unlikely I'd say. Not without a healthy Chandler and Posey, no matter how brilliant CP3 is. And don't forget the choking history of Peja. I think the Nuggets will be lucky again and proceed to second round.
My prediction: 4-2 Nuggets
#3 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks
A 2006 Conference Finals rematch. Sigh, the Spurs-Mavs rivalry sounds like ancient history nowadays. The Spurs was not the same without Ginobili, while the Mavs is not the same after their humble exit in 2007 and 2008 playoffs. It is reported that Tim Duncan has been bothered by knee injury throughout the season and he's clearly not his old self. But despite the strong run of the Mavs to finish the season, the Spurs is still the better team. The Spurs is a better defense team, and if J-Kidd couldn't slow down Tony Parker in 2003, there's no way that he could do it now. Dirk, despite his terrific stats, has regressed to an outside shooter this year, seldom taking down low in the paint. So don't expect him to have any heroic moment like in 2006. Time for the Mavs to rebuild, frankly.
My prediction: 4-2 Spurs
#4 Portland Trailblazers vs. #5. Houston Rockets
Probably the most exciting matchup in the first round. The Blazers is well liked universially. They are young, they are energetic, they have good spirits, and they are disciplined. Roy is certainly a superstar in the making; Fernandez is super entertaining; Aldridge, Outlaw are all talented players, while they also have some extremely solid role players like Blake, Przybilla and Batum. However, experience is the issue. The Rockets, on the other hand, is full of experience. First round exit experience, that is. This team is no doubt talented. Yao, Artest, Battier, Scola. Their backcourt (Brooks, Lowry, Wafer) maybe is undersized but super quck. This would be heck of a matchup. Hard to say which one is an underdog, as their records are so close. While my love for Yao is forever, I just think that the Blazers has better chemistry and they have one thing that the Rockets lack, a finisher (Roy).
My prediction: 4-3 Blazers
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