Conference Finals Preview

EAST

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic

8-0 so far. Well rested and full of energy, this year, nobody is hungrier than the Cavs. Excellent chemistry, playing with heart and hustle, tough rebounding and defending, peak at the right time, what to complain? Plus, an unstoppable LBJ. Have you seen all the crazy shots that LBJ hoisted and made recently? Suggest you hit youtube and you'll know how surreal things are right now. With LBJ drawing defenders, teammates are getting all the open looks . Without a doubt they are playing the best basketball right now.

Now, please stop all the “what if KG had been in uniform”questions, the Magic beat the defending champion and is right here, now and present. Forget the Celtics. The Magic win games by 3-pt shooting and defense. Nobody relies on outside shots more than the Magic, and they have enough shooters to get the job done. Meanwhile, they have DH12 dominating the paint.

For this series, LBJ will do it all, as usual. Driving to the hoop, hitting outside shots, setting up teammates, rebounding, defending opponents' ace, you name it. Expect him to post yet another round of 30-8-6 stats. I repeat, no one can stop LBJ right now. Meanwhile, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Gibson and Sczcerbiak will take turn to hit the open 3s. Big Z is a super efficient scorer who also rebounds well. I like the idea of starting Varejao instead of Big Ben. Varejao is the designated energy guy who is obviously more active and athletic than Big Ben, who is really washed out at this stage of his career. The Cavs will once again play suffocating defense and will have a huge advantage in rebounding.

I don't think DH12 will be very effective against the Cavs' tough defense, but he will get his share of double-double as usual. On the other hand, Magic's outside shooting will be a threat to the Cavs. LBJ may be able to contain either one of Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, but they will have trouble stopping the other one. Either Varejao will take up Lewis, which will make Ilgauskas being exposed to play DH12 one-on-one, or Delonte West will take up the assignment to cover Turk, but will give up a lot of size. The Lee/ Pietrus combo is athletic as well. The worst nightmare for the Magic would be LBJ getting Dwight Howard into foul trouble.

To make it short, I don't think the Cavs would be able to sweep the Magic, but with LBJ playing like a superhuman, the Cavs should have no problem finishing them off.

Cavs in 6.


WEST

L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

After much drama, the Lakers advanced to the Conference Finals, just as expected since the very first day of the season. From the Rockets series, we learned that the Lakers are certainly not invincible. They could play with unacceptable lethargy. Don't blame Odom's minor injury, inconsistency has been their problem throughout the season. However, they are still the deepest team in the league. We saw them trashing the Rockets by 40 pts. And we saw them winning games just when needed, like Game 7. If just by watching Game 5 and 7, you will never understand why the series was pushed to 7 games. When they are focused and play hard, they dominated on both ends. But they were not able to play hard every night.

On the other side, we have the hottest team in the West. Thanks to the arrival of Billups, the Nuggets have transformed into a genuine elite team. Billups provides much needed leadership to the team. 'Melo has been shooting the lights out, while the entire team are full of fire and energy. In terms of chemistry and intensity, they are the exact opposite of the Lakers.

So what's the take? The Lakers can win at the frontcourt. Gasol should have no problem scoring down low. K-Mart is a thug, but don't mix that up with good defender. After surgeries on both knees, his defense rotation is slow and he doesn't have any lift. Nene flat out can't play D period. Odom and Ariza would take turn to score on 'Melo. Chris Anderson is a hustle guy who, well, hustles. OK, I don't count on Bynum, but Lakers would easily out-score and out-rebound the Nuggets.

For the Nuggets, 'Melo, assumed guarded by Kobe, will not score as easily as in the last two rounds, but he's so quick and versatile that it would be insane to expect him to score less than 25 PPG. Nene is a legitimate low post scorer. It would be interesting to see how the Lakers' bench to stop J.R. Smith's long range bomb. But the biggest advantage of the Nuggets is at PG. Chauncey Billups could score 30 pts by hitting his deadeye 3s, or get 12 assists by setting up teammates. If I were Phil Jackson, I will sacrifice the outside scoring and charge-taking of Fisher and start Jordan Farmar at PG. There's no chance that Fisher should be able to guard Billups. He's just too washed up. I would even play Shannon Brown ahead of Fisher . So if the Lakers has supreme advantage in the frontcourt and rebounding, they just give back the Nuggets the edge at PG and outside shooting.

So we come to Kobe. We have seen him taking less shots and scoring less this season Yes, with such a deep roster, he doesn't need to score 50 pts to win. He still scored all those tough shots (though I have been critical of his shot selection), and he can score 40 pts with ease. He could play tough defense (e.g. against 'Melo). But the problem is, I do not see a Black Mamba in Kobe. I do not see him showing the much needed killer instinct. Come to think about it, the Nuggets have no Artest or Battier to guard Kobe. It's clear that the Nuggets can only double-team Kobe, a strategy George Karl might not take due to the presence of many outside shooters in LA. On defense, Kobe is the one who can stop 'Melo. Simply put, this series is entirely on Kobe. It's for him to win. Or lose.

Lakers in 6. (Imagine David Stern checking the TV rating of Denver and LA, and then make a phone call to the refs to ensure that the Kobe-LBJ duel happen.

Iverson going to Mo-town

ESPN reports:

The Pistons and the Denver Nuggets have finalized a trade that sends guard Allen Iverson to Detroit in exchange for Pistons mainstays Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess.

Young center Cheikh Samb, selected by the Los Angeles Lakers for the Pistons with the 51st overall pick in the 2006 draft, will also be going to Denver in the deal.

My view:

It's a bold move by Joe Dumars. He vowed to make changes after their defeat to the Celtics in the 2008 Playoffs, and he just walked the talk.

OK, the deal would bring in a bona fide superstar, which the team has been lacking since don't know when. But that's just an excuse. The main reason for the deal is, by dealing away Billups, they are getting rid of his 4-year $50 million contract. Iverson's contract (and Rasheed Wallace's too) will expire this year, which will bring them heavily under the cap next summer. They may choose to upgrade its roster next summer, or try their luck to hit the jackpot in the mega free agency in 2010, which features LBJ, Wade, Bosh, etc.

Dumars' plan is to gradually rebuild this team by developing PG Rodney Stuckey, PF Amir Johnson and PF Jason Maxiell. And if they could get one or two superstar in '09 or '10 free agency, they will once again rule the East.

However, there are considerable risks.

First trading away Billups, their starting PG, for a undersized SG may have a detrimental effect on team chemistry, not to mention that Iverson is a ball hog while this team's forte is their teamwork. And how would Iverson react to the deal remains unknown, especially knowing that he will almost certainly won't be staying in Detroit after this season. Did I mention that Iverson has been a problem child in the past? What would the team featuring Iverson and 'Sheed be? I'm just curious.

Secondly, Iverson has never been a good PG, and probably never will be. I understand that Dumars has great faith in sophomore PG Rodney Stuckey, but is he up to the challenge? No matter how talented he is, as a sophomore, he represents considerable risk. It is never a sure thing that he could be developed into a legitimate PG.

Iverson will provide some scoring to the team, but I'm expecting a step back for the Pistons this season after the trade. Whether the deal can pay out in the long run, it depends on (1) the development of the young core of Stuckey, Amir Johnson and Maxiell; and (2) the luck of nabbing any superstar free agents in '09 and '10.

As for the Nuggets, I genuinely consider them as the clear winner of this deal.

First is addressing need. They have enough scoring in JR Smith and 'Melo Anthony, and they need a legit PG to run the offense and to share the ball. Billups fits in admirably. Hey, they don't have to start Anthony Carter at PG, isn't that great?

Secondly, Billups arguably is a better player. Iverson no doubt is a superstar and a great great talent. But if you were a GM or a coach, would you rather have Billups or Iverson at your team? Yes, you got it.

Thirdly, by trading away Iverson, they can free up the offense for J.R. Smith (which was recently re-signed) and their franchise player, Carmelo Anthony.

Although the deal makes sense basketball-wise for the Nuggets, it does not fit their cost-saving mode. They traded away Camby almost for free in order to dump salary, now they are taking up the 4-year contract of Billups? Alright, Billups is earning less money than Iverson this season, but Iverson's contract will end this season. I had expected them to let Iverson play out his contract and walk in the past.

With a tight budget and by not addressing their need in the frontcourt (K-Mart and Nene do not look like they can play anything more than 70 games a season), I don't see the upgrade from Iverson to Billups can push them to become one of the best teams in the West. So why not stick to the original rebuilding plan and let the team go to lottery for a couple of years?

Maybe what the Nuggets need is just to squeeze into the playoffs, get a few more games played in Denver so that they can earn a little bit more ticket sales.