Raptors send O'Neal to Heat for Marion

The trade:

Toronto Raptors agreed to trade center Jermaine O'Neal and swingman Jamario Moon (with a first round pick) to Miami Heat for ex-Suns Shawn Marion and guard Marcus Banks (and $3m cash).

For the Raptors:

Hailed as an up-n-coming team, the Raptors has been flat out horrible this season. Not only they failed to elevate to another level as expected, they are now second last in the East and can basically be ruled out of the playoffs even though there are still 30 games to play.

Apparently the management feels the same too. Yes, they were hit by injuries (Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh, JO). But even so, they shouldn't be that bad, ay? OK, they fired ex-COY Sam Mitchell (long due), but things didn't get any better with Canadian coach Jay Triano. With 2006 No.1 pick Andrea Bargnani finally coming to perform (yes, I traded him for JO early this season in my fantasy game, which looked good back then but obviously I gave him up too soon), they finally abandoned the JO experiment after just 50+ games.

As to why the JO trade failed, while there are many reasons, I believe the main problem is that both JO and Bosh are low post scorers who need the ball to be effective. Ideally, they should have turned JO into a role player, i.e. focusing on rebound, defense and facilitation while playing along with Bosh, and then taking the lead to score when Bosh sits. Somehow it never happened. At the same time, they saw Bargnani play extremely well after a horrible November. The problem is, even though he likes to shoot the 3s, Bargnani can't play at 3, since he can't catch up with the quick SF in the league. On the other hand, he did a passable job in blks and rebs. As such, the ideal frontcourt of Bargnani-Bosh-JO is not viable.

Given the age and the injury history, JO is obviously the odd-man out among the three. Matrix is quite ideal because they desperately need some scoring from the swingman position, because Anthony Parker or Jamario Moon are not scoring enough, while Jason Kapono only shoots 3s. Moreover, JO's contract is until 09-10 while Matrix's will expire after this season. So the Raptors can get some cost saving (10th highest in the league with $72m payroll this year) should they decide not to re-sign Matrix. Since they have all but given up this season, they can use the remaining 25-30 games to take a good look at Matrix.


For the Heat,

It's simple, size. Rookie Joel Anthony (6'9") is helplessly undersized at C, while Canadian Jamaal Magloire struggled mightily, start or not. With JO they have a legit C. WIth Dywane Wade shooting and slashing, JO has the entire paint for him to score. Udonis Haslem can now play at his natural position at PF. They don't need JO to be a 20-10 guy anymore, as they can settle him to be just 15-8. Matrix is expendable since he was never comfortable playing in Miami, as evidenced by his sharp drop in production (12.0 PPG 8.6 RPG this season vs. career avg of 17.9 PPG and 10.0 RPG).

Never underestimate the inclusion of Jamario Moon. Moon is an athletic player who is heavily underrated becaus he can't score much. However, he's a perfect role player, who plays hard and does all the dirty little works. He would be an ideal facilitator between Wade and JO. With Mario Chalmers running the game at PG and Haslem resume his old PF position, suddenly, the Heat have a complete lineup. While it will be a bit stretch to say they are contender now, but on paper they should be able to compete against any team not named Celtics or Cavaliers.

Furthermore, with JO manning the paint, Wade now needs not to take up all the scoring load and should see more open looks as a result of some double-teamming of JO. And we have seen how the Flash could single-handedly lift up the team to another level given a similar situation (2006 championship run).

What they give up is (1) salary flexibility. JO's $23m salary next year, which means they won't be able to make bid for any of this year's free agents (most notably Carlos Boozer); also without Matrix's expiring contracts, they will not be able to acquire talents from teams who want to dump salaries (Amare of Suns, for example); and (2) potential injury of JO, who's never played 82 games in any year and never played more than 70 games since, gasp, 03-04.

It's a calculated gamble for the Heat and even if it fails, they do not lose much and they still have the cap space for the 2010 mega free agency.

Analyzing the Suns-Bobcats deal

The deal:

Pheonix acquired SG Jason Richardson, SF Jared Dudley and a 2010 second-round pick from Charlotte Bobcats, in exchange for PF Boris Diaw, SG Raja Bell and PG Sean Singletary.

My take:

For the Suns:

I have said all season long, that the Suns need more scoring, esp. on the perimeter. J-Rich just gives them what they need: a prolific scorer who can shoot the 3s and drive to the basket, not to mention that he can run with Nash in fast breaks too. J-Rich's scoring comes off a bit this year (just 18.7 PPG), but he’s obviously an upgrade over Raja Bell in offense. He’s hitting his career best 3P% this season, a whopping .458. His D is underrated. Remember him playing tough D against the Mavs in the Upset of the Century in 2007 Playoffs? I always like J-Rich, because he is a classy guy who plays hard. A huge plus for the Suns.

Trading away Diaw won’t hurt that much. Unlike under D’Antoni, Diaw didn’t play a pivotal role this season under Porter. Jared Dudley is a young and energetic back up to replace Diaw. So overall it’s a plus for the Suns.

For the Bobcats:

Really don’t know what MJ is thinking. J-Rich is the ONLY true scorer in their entire roster and they traded him away for two non-scorers. Gerald Wallace, their second leading scorer, is not exactly that type of player who can create his own shots. He relies more on team plays and ball movement. J-Rich’s departure will boost up his scoring but the team’s overall offense will be worse. D.J. Augustin can score but he’s just a rookie. Already dead last in scoring, the Bobcats will have extreme difficulty in scoring after the trade.

Diaw can replace the ineffective and immobile Sean May to start at PF right away. Sure they need frontcourt depth but Diaw is not at all a traditional big man. He’s more a finesse big man who is good at playing point forward, instead of the traditional big man who scores down low and bangs against opposing big men. He is agile and quick, and may take advantage of the opponent's slow bigs. However, the bigger question is, will Diaw’s unorthodox game fit Larry Brown’s “play it right” game? I seriously doubt it. Diaw is not at all a hard working type. Expect the Bobcats to fall in ranking. Well it might be a good thing, because they can get a high pick in 2009 draft. Well, maybe that's what they are planning for, you know, trying to get the consensus #1 pick, Oklahoma's sphomore PF Blak Griffin.

MJ the GM has done quite a questionable job over the years. You know, from drafting Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay etc in 2006, drafting D.J. Augustin over Brook Lopez when they were (and still are ) in need of big man in 2008, trading for Nazr Mohammad, etc.

Sometimes, a great player does not always translate to a great management. Look at Kevin McHale. Look at Isiah Thomas. Even though you are the greatest player of history.

Iverson going to Mo-town

ESPN reports:

The Pistons and the Denver Nuggets have finalized a trade that sends guard Allen Iverson to Detroit in exchange for Pistons mainstays Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess.

Young center Cheikh Samb, selected by the Los Angeles Lakers for the Pistons with the 51st overall pick in the 2006 draft, will also be going to Denver in the deal.

My view:

It's a bold move by Joe Dumars. He vowed to make changes after their defeat to the Celtics in the 2008 Playoffs, and he just walked the talk.

OK, the deal would bring in a bona fide superstar, which the team has been lacking since don't know when. But that's just an excuse. The main reason for the deal is, by dealing away Billups, they are getting rid of his 4-year $50 million contract. Iverson's contract (and Rasheed Wallace's too) will expire this year, which will bring them heavily under the cap next summer. They may choose to upgrade its roster next summer, or try their luck to hit the jackpot in the mega free agency in 2010, which features LBJ, Wade, Bosh, etc.

Dumars' plan is to gradually rebuild this team by developing PG Rodney Stuckey, PF Amir Johnson and PF Jason Maxiell. And if they could get one or two superstar in '09 or '10 free agency, they will once again rule the East.

However, there are considerable risks.

First trading away Billups, their starting PG, for a undersized SG may have a detrimental effect on team chemistry, not to mention that Iverson is a ball hog while this team's forte is their teamwork. And how would Iverson react to the deal remains unknown, especially knowing that he will almost certainly won't be staying in Detroit after this season. Did I mention that Iverson has been a problem child in the past? What would the team featuring Iverson and 'Sheed be? I'm just curious.

Secondly, Iverson has never been a good PG, and probably never will be. I understand that Dumars has great faith in sophomore PG Rodney Stuckey, but is he up to the challenge? No matter how talented he is, as a sophomore, he represents considerable risk. It is never a sure thing that he could be developed into a legitimate PG.

Iverson will provide some scoring to the team, but I'm expecting a step back for the Pistons this season after the trade. Whether the deal can pay out in the long run, it depends on (1) the development of the young core of Stuckey, Amir Johnson and Maxiell; and (2) the luck of nabbing any superstar free agents in '09 and '10.

As for the Nuggets, I genuinely consider them as the clear winner of this deal.

First is addressing need. They have enough scoring in JR Smith and 'Melo Anthony, and they need a legit PG to run the offense and to share the ball. Billups fits in admirably. Hey, they don't have to start Anthony Carter at PG, isn't that great?

Secondly, Billups arguably is a better player. Iverson no doubt is a superstar and a great great talent. But if you were a GM or a coach, would you rather have Billups or Iverson at your team? Yes, you got it.

Thirdly, by trading away Iverson, they can free up the offense for J.R. Smith (which was recently re-signed) and their franchise player, Carmelo Anthony.

Although the deal makes sense basketball-wise for the Nuggets, it does not fit their cost-saving mode. They traded away Camby almost for free in order to dump salary, now they are taking up the 4-year contract of Billups? Alright, Billups is earning less money than Iverson this season, but Iverson's contract will end this season. I had expected them to let Iverson play out his contract and walk in the past.

With a tight budget and by not addressing their need in the frontcourt (K-Mart and Nene do not look like they can play anything more than 70 games a season), I don't see the upgrade from Iverson to Billups can push them to become one of the best teams in the West. So why not stick to the original rebuilding plan and let the team go to lottery for a couple of years?

Maybe what the Nuggets need is just to squeeze into the playoffs, get a few more games played in Denver so that they can earn a little bit more ticket sales.