First round preview

Finally, it's playoffs time! As said before, I am not too thrilled about this postseason, simply because there is not much suspense. Namely, I do not think anyone can knock out the Lakers in the West. At the same time, the Cavs look so strong that seems like no one in the East can beat them, in particular that KG's knee problem has been worse than expected.

Fortunately, the first round should at least generate some drama. In the West, the Nuggets finished at #2, but they will face the Hornets, who is not an ordinary #7 team. And who will not be excited about the Spurs-Mavs All-Texas matchup? And I haven't mentioned the traditional tough matchup between the #4 (Blazers) and #5 (Rockets). In the East, could the defending champion, without KG, be able to fend off the red hot Bulls? What about Wade & Co against the now playoffs-tested Hawks? Anyway, here's my round 1 preview/prediction:

EAST

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons

Yes, a replay of 2007 Conference Finals. If the Pistons can't stop LBJ in 2007, I can't see how they could do it this year. The Cavs have the best record, including a surreal 39-2 home record. They finally have Mo Williams as a legit second banana, and a deep bench featuring Daniel Gibson, Wally Sczcerbiak, Anderson Varejao and Joe Smith. Losing Big Ben may hurt a bit but I don't think they miss him that much. Yes, the Pistons may be not as bad as its record show, but without Billups, they are not the same. First, they will have difficulty guarding Mo Williams, and I haven't mentioned how they could stop LBJ. Oops, I said that already. As Rasheed Wallace continued to age and becoming more and more disinterested, their frontline is not as formidable as before. Yes, the Pistons is a team in the past.

Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers

#2 Boston Celtics vs. #.7 Chicago Bulls

The biggest news of course is that KG will definitely miss the 1st round, and might miss the entire playoffs. A huge blow to the defending champion. I mean, they are still an elite team with good coaching. However, the Bulls are better than it appears. Don't be fooled by its record or standing, they are a decent team with depth after the trade for John Salmons and Brad Miller. Salmons' presence is particularly important now that Luol Deng is out. These, plus KG's unavailability, will make this series closer than people think. But it is still difficult to see Vinny Del Negro beating Doc Rivers and the entire Celtics coaching staff. I mean, this ain't no Hollywood movie, right? A rookie coach leading an underdog to beat the reigning champion? That's too dramatic in real life, with or without KG.

Prediction: 4-3 Celtics

#3 Orlando Magic vs. #6 Philadelphia Sixers

Like the Celtics, the Magic is haunted by injury as well. Turkoglu twisted his ankle towards the end of the season and missed the last two games. I have said before, Turkoglu is the second most important player in the team. Not Lewis, and certainly not (the injured) Nelson. Without a healthy Turkoglu, I don't see the Magic going deep in the playoffs. However, I still think they should have no problem finishing the Sixers, who had lost 6 in a row before beating the 2nd team of Cavs in OT in the 82nd game of the season. BTW, the Magic swept the Sixers in the regular season.

Prediction: 4-1 Magic

#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. #5 Miami Heat

As always, the #4-#5 matchup is the most exciting. The Hawks pushed the Celtics to the limit last year, and after that, the Hawks built on that and became a genuine elite team this season. Now the Heat. D-Wade played it all out to lead a team of mediocre players and rookies to #5 in the East, quite an accomplishment. Now, can he still have the mojo to carry the team to more success in the playoffs like what he did in 2006? I think so. I know the Hawks is a more complete team and they have Joe Johnson and Josh Smith and Mike Bibby, they play terrific defense, but I want some Wade moments. The playoffs need some drama, the league need some drama. Wade must do some magic to upset the Hawks and face LBJ in the 2nd round.

Prediction: 4-3 Wade, oops, I mean Heat


WEST

#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Utah Jazz

OK, Andrew Bynum is back, and he looks good in those brief moment on the court. On paper, no team is deeper than the Lakers. And they have Kobe. They also have Phil Jackson. What to complain? Yes, they still win games by offense more than defense, and sometimes they don't have that killer instinct to finish opponents. But guess that should be enough to finish the Jazz. It's a strange case why the Jazz faltered like that late in the season, in no coincidence when Boozer returned to the lineup. If I have to pick a reason, guess the impending free agency of Boozer, plus his diminished play time after the surge of Paul Millsap has somehow hurt their chemistry. Anyway, facing the Lakers probably is their worst nightmare, not to mention the fact that Phil Jackson always owns Jerry Sloan in the past.

My prediction: 4-1 Lakers

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

I have never been a fan of the Nuggets. I believe that they grabbed the #2 spot in the West is just a result of the injuries suffered by the Spurs, the Rockets and the Hornets. Yes, Chauncey "Big Shot" Billups is a huge addition to a team that lacks leadership. But they are still the Nuggets. On the other hand, the Hornets have solid players in CP3, Peja, David West, Tysan Chandler and playoffs specialist James Posey. So maybe a potential upset? Unlikely I'd say. Not without a healthy Chandler and Posey, no matter how brilliant CP3 is. And don't forget the choking history of Peja. I think the Nuggets will be lucky again and proceed to second round.

My prediction: 4-2 Nuggets

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks

A 2006 Conference Finals rematch. Sigh, the Spurs-Mavs rivalry sounds like ancient history nowadays. The Spurs was not the same without Ginobili, while the Mavs is not the same after their humble exit in 2007 and 2008 playoffs. It is reported that Tim Duncan has been bothered by knee injury throughout the season and he's clearly not his old self. But despite the strong run of the Mavs to finish the season, the Spurs is still the better team. The Spurs is a better defense team, and if J-Kidd couldn't slow down Tony Parker in 2003, there's no way that he could do it now. Dirk, despite his terrific stats, has regressed to an outside shooter this year, seldom taking down low in the paint. So don't expect him to have any heroic moment like in 2006. Time for the Mavs to rebuild, frankly.

My prediction: 4-2 Spurs

#4 Portland Trailblazers vs. #5. Houston Rockets

Probably the most exciting matchup in the first round. The Blazers is well liked universially. They are young, they are energetic, they have good spirits, and they are disciplined. Roy is certainly a superstar in the making; Fernandez is super entertaining; Aldridge, Outlaw are all talented players, while they also have some extremely solid role players like Blake, Przybilla and Batum. However, experience is the issue. The Rockets, on the other hand, is full of experience. First round exit experience, that is. This team is no doubt talented. Yao, Artest, Battier, Scola. Their backcourt (Brooks, Lowry, Wafer) maybe is undersized but super quck. This would be heck of a matchup. Hard to say which one is an underdog, as their records are so close. While my love for Yao is forever, I just think that the Blazers has better chemistry and they have one thing that the Rockets lack, a finisher (Roy).

My prediction: 4-3 Blazers

Awards Watch

The regular season is coming to an end, it's time to take a look at the candidates of all the awards.

Most Valuable Player

How do you define "most valuable"? The most talented? The most skillful? The highest scoring? The highest efficiency or PER? The one who is the most valuable to his team? The best player in the best team of the league? Maybe all of the above. Plus, since the award is voted by journalists, please also include the most hyped.

To me, I always take team success as the top priority. Not necessarily the best player in the best team, but I will never pick a player with terrific stat in a lousy team. Let's say the minimum is the top 10 teams in the league. Secondly, the MVP should be one of the best players in the league. For convenience sake, let's just say he must be top-10 in John Hollinger's PER list.

Here is the list of players who meet the above criteria as of today: LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Brandon Roy, Tony Parker, Chris Paul and Dirk Nowitzki. Yes, Dwyane Wade will be missed despite being the league's leading scorer and 2nd in PER, simply because Miami Heat is just a .500 team (42 games as of Sunday, April 12). You can say it is not a fair measurement of individual success but winning is one of the most important factors to define a player's greatness . Otherwise Bill Russelll will never be considered as one of (if not) the greatest player in history. So, sorry, Dwyane.

Next is the qualitative part. First he must be a genuine leader of the team, so Tony Parker is out. Secondly, he must have the ability to put the team on his shoulder and win games when needed. In order words, Tim Duncan (for this season) is out. Also, you should not be a choker, so Dirk Nowitzki is out.

So for the remaining, it's quite obvious who is the winner. Yes, there is still an argument whether Kobe or LBJ is a better player. However, for this season only, LBJ should win it. He is No. 1 in PER, No. 2 in scoring. I had been critical on his shooting and defense in the past, but this season we saw substantial improvement in both departments. The Cavs have the best record in the league, and a whopping 20-game improvement from last year. In case you don't know, LBJ leads the team in PTS, REB, AST, STL and BLK. Simply put, he is literally and figuratively the leader of the team.

While I have never been a big fan of him, I must admit I really appreciate his effort and determination to improve his short coming. Kobe is close, but the difference between his PER and that of LBJ is so large that I really can't make a good case for him.

My pick:

1. LeBron James
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Dwight Howard



Defensive Player of the Year

This is another tough one, because defense excellence could not exactly be reflected in individual stats. Instead, defense is more teamwork. That's why KG won it last season. I will look into team defense stat first. To qualify as a DPOY, your team must be one of the best defense teams in the league. After that, we may take a look at individual stats. Due to limited resources I can access, I would just look into REB, BLK and STL, but these are just for reference only. Lastly, and most importantly, the fear factor. A DPOY should be a player that makes his opponents fear. Some players are good defenders but can't scare their opponents, as opposed to guys like, you know, Ron Artest, Dikembe Mutombo and the Glove.

Based on the above criteria, I would go with the flow and pick Dwight Howard as DPOY. His team ranks 6th in pts allowed and 3rd in FG% allowed. He leads the league in REB and BLK. Most crucial, is that DH12 is a guy that you fear. LBJ, CP3 and Wade may also have terrific stats, but they are not the type of defenders that opponents fear. Yes, DH12 is still not perfect in his pick-n-roll defense, but at least for this year, he is the best defender in the league.

Houston Rockets have terrific defense stat too (although is slightly inferior to the Magic), and I must put Ron Artest and Shane Battier in 2nd and 3rd respectively. The most important difference between these two Rockets and Superman is the fear factor that DH12 imposes on his opponents.

My pick:

1. Dwight Howard
2. Ron Artest
3. Shane Battier


Rookie of the Year

This is easy. I think Chicago Bulls' Derrick Rose should win the unanimous vote, if the voters are sane. Rose is playing the toughest position for a rookie in a not-so-harmonized Bulls. They struggled early but had a late run to get back to the playoffs mix, now challenging to take up as high as No. 6 spot in the East. Rose never hit the so-called rookie wall, and has been extremely consistent. Only when he has improved his shooting (underrated actually) and defense, he will soon become one of the top PGs in the league.

Memphis Grizzlies' O. J. Mayo is good but then he plays in a lousy team and at a relatively easy position (swingman). He's no surprise that he posts decent scoring. Ditto for Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon. Mayo clearly is a better shooter than Westbrook and Gordon and therefore should finish No.2 in ROY. New Jersey Nets' Brook Lopez is clearly a solid big man with 13.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 1.8 BPG. However, I have watched him played, and I was not impressed by his low post moves, too robot-like. Anyway, he's the best big man for the Nets since, err, Mutombo in 02-03 season.

My pick:

1. Derrick Rose
2. O. J. Mayo
3. Brook Lopez


Sixth Man of the Year

This season, with leading candidate Manu Ginobili being slowed by injury and playing sparingly, it has come to only three legitimate candidates: Mavericks' Jason Terry, Suns' Leandro Barbosa and Nuggets' J.R. Smith. Had Andrew Bynum not been out that many games thereby forcing Lamar Odom to start 32 games, Odom would have been another candidate.

I think JT is clearly the winner here. With Josh Howard sitting out for a long stretch, the Mavericks would never have a chance to crack the playoffs without JT's tremendous effort. He also has the ability to win games on his own and hit the clutch shots. And I haven't mentioned his 19.5 PPG.

J.R. Smith kept on hitting his 3s to help the Nuggets to take the No. 2 spot in the West, while Barbosa, as always, provided much needed bench scoring for the Suns, whose bench is as thin as ever. But they are no match to Terry. As for Nate Robinson aka Krpto-Nate, please. Yeah, he scores a lot, but we all know players' stats and values are always inflated under D'Antoni (and his SSOL system). He's nothing but a showcase.

My pick:

1. Jason Terry
2. J.R. Smith
3. Leandro Barbosa


Most Improved Player

Another tough one. First, we need to look at the improvement in the players' stats. Then we will discount those improvement due to, e.g., increasing PT, promotion from bench to starting due to injuries of teammates etc. While normally this award will give to those players who rise from mediocre to stardom, I believe it is not fair to ignore those who are already stars but have advanced to become a superstar.

Anyway, the consensus goes to Devin Harris and I have no problem with that. Not only his stats, his role in the team has also changed substantially. Coach Lawrence Frank has given him the green light to take the lead in offense this season. He took up such role with confidence, and other than sitting out due to injury, he has been consistent. Yes, the Nets did not play well but this is a lousy team anyway. Harris is now a bona fide star.

Kevin Durant should also be given much consideration. His most improvement is not his scoring (from 20.3 to 25.5), but his shot selection. His FG% improved from .430 to 476, while his 3PT% saw a big leap from .288 to .422. Plus, he has assumed the leading role in the young OKC team. Rajon Rondo is another MIP candidate. Following his solid performance in last year's playoffs, Rondo has risen his game, in particular in scoring, and contributed a lot to the team's success when KG went down with injury. You just can't imagine the surmountable pressure he has, playing along with three future hall-of-famers and in a city where championship is expected.

I would not consider Danny Granger a legit candidate. For sure he's an all-star, but he was already very good last season, while his improvement this season is not that substantial, relatively speaking. And his injury has really hurt his case. Also, I will not put much consideration on Paul Millsap, whose stats improved mainly due to increased PT when playing in place of the injured Carlos Boozer.

My pick:

1. Devin Harris
2. Kevin Durant
3. Rajon Rondo


Coach of the Year

Now the most contraversial award. Should you award the most tactical coach in the league (in that case it should be either Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich or Jerry Sloan)? Or should you award the coach of the best team (Mike Brown)? What about the best teacher who managed to turn around a losing team (Larry Brown)? Or the coach that helped the team to make the most leap from mediocre to one of the best in the league (Stan Van Gundy)?

In the end, I decided to put my vote on McMillan. It's a no easy task to coach such a young team. On top of basketball, I bet he have put considerable time to manage his players' egos. Of course, the fact that the Blazers managed to stand at No. 4 in the competitive West counts.

SVG is also good in a way that he was able to take the team to another level, with basically the same squad (minus Jameer Nelson). But I can't deny the fact that I am irritated by his comments. He speaks too much, in particular about Shaq's flop, which makes me sick. Mike Brown should also get credits for the 20-game improvement of the Cavs. The thing I appreciate the most is that he was able to admit his limit and hired an assistant coach to improve the offense. The result is immediate. Also, it's no easy task to insert newcomers like Mo Williams into the system. The bad thing is, the presence of LBJ really hurts Brown's chance for COY. Also, I still believe he is not yet a resourceful coach, as in those could excels in X's and O's and make necessary in-game adjustments to win games.

My pick:

1. Nate McMillan
2. Stan Van Gundy
3. Mike Brown

March Madness 2009

I do not follow college basketball much. First, I do not have that much time to follow so many sports, and I would rather stick with the NBA. Second, I did not go to college in the US so I do not have much history or ties or even hates with any college at all (rivalvies included). Third, college basketball games are not shown in Hong Kong until at the late stage of the Tournament, and it is very difficult to follow something that you do not have a chance to watch. Last but not least, I find it difficult to attach any emotion to any college team, since under the current system, almost all college star players are “one and done” type. Good players always opt for NBA draft after their freshman year. That is, just when you are getting some feeling about them during their first Tourney, and after the summer, they will be donning a Clippers’ or Grizzlies’ or Timberwolves’ jerseys. That is the most frustrating of all.

Anyway, each year, I always start to pay attention to college basketball when March Madness begins. One reason is that I have to maintain conversation with my hoop friends. Most of them are from US colleges and pay so much attention to the Tourney that nobody is listening to me or arguing with me about the NBA during that one-month period, especially after the All-Star Game and the trade deadline when things are mostly settled.

I mean, the Tourney is intriguing. The one-and-out elimination format is always exciting. People always pull for any underdogs, and it's always fun reading bloggers/fans trashing Duke. Every year. That's really something. I mean, it's OK for you to hate the Yankees. It's OK for you to hate the Knicks or the Lakers. It's OK for you to hate the USA or George W. Bush. However, why do you hate a college team? C'mon, these are just kids! The Duke players do not deserve to be hated! What happen to these people?


Back to this year's Tourney. I have quickly looked at the bracket this year. There are many familiar teams, big names like Duke, UCLA, UNC, Memphis, UConn, or usual suspects like Pittsburgh, Michigan, Syracuse, Arizona, Texas, LSU, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, South California, Louisville, Tennessee, etc. Too bad we wouldn’t be seeing Stephen Curry and his Davidson Wildcats this year for another Cinderella run; or any impossible run by George Mason. The only story that is worth mentioning maybe is the surprise early exit of #4 seed Wake Forest, who was knocked out by Cleveland State in the first round.

As of today, first weekend’s games were finished. Not many upsets so far, as we see all 4 first seeds as well as all 4 second seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen. UNC, Louisville, Pittsburgh and UConn are the favorite picks of the Final Four so far. Let's see if there is any more surprises from now on.

In fact, the most important reason for me to follow the college games is that I need to prepare myself for the upcoming NBA Draft. That is why I always watch or follow the college games (the Tourney) like a scout instead of a fan. I seldom take note of who’s winning and who’s losing. Instead, I focus on the performance of individual potential draftees. This year’s draftees, according to ESPN’s Chad Ford, are not that great, where the talent level drops significantly after the top 3 or top 5 picks. However, we all know that the Tourney can boost up the stock of the players dramatically. Like the way Derrick Rose jumped from top-5 to unanimous #1 pick last year after an impressive Tourney performance. Or the championship team of Florida, led by Joakim Noah and Al Horford, all the members saw them did pretty well in the draft after their repeat. I know it's a bit late, but here are the potential stars in the Tourney that will likely be seen in the Green Room in June’s draft this year:

Blake Griffin, PF, 6'10", Sophomore, Oklahoma (Comparison: Carlos Boozer)

- consensus No.1 pick this year. Griffin simply dominated at the college level this season. His NO.1 status is so locked up that not even a disappointing tournament would hurt his chance.

James Harden, SG, 6'4", Sophomore, Arizona State (Comparison: Manu Ginobili)

- mostly viewed as an undersized SG, Harden is a projected top-5 pick and is one of the best scorers in college. He's a lefty, together with the fact that he is a solid defender renders him the Ginobili comparison. It's hard to see him getting past Griffin, but a big Tourney would give him a safe No.2.

Jordan Hill, PF, 6'9", Junior, Arizona (Comparison: Chris Wilcox)

- Super athletic with huge upside. Already projected as a Top-5 pick, Hill may further solidify his Top-3 status with a big Tourney.

Hasheem Thabeet, C, 7'3", Junior, Connecticut (Comparison: Samuel Dalembert)

- The saying is, you can't teach 7'3". However, there's a reason why Thabeet did not come out of college for the past 2 years. He's just not that talented. This draft will give him the best chance because of the lack of big men as well as another productive year in UConn.

Jeff Teague, G, 6'2", Sophomore, Wake Forest (Comparison: Monta Ellis)
Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, 6'8", Freshman, Wake Forest (Comparison: Josh Smith)

- Teague is said to be Top-10 while Aminu is lottery bound. Would the surprise early exit of the Demon Deacons hurt their values? While both are talented, on the downside, scouts said Teague is no CP3 in terms of pure-PG plays while Aminu is a bit raw.

Willie Warren, G, 6'4", Freshman, Oklahoma (Comparison: Jason Terry)

- excellent athlete and probably the best freshman in the country. He's a SG right now, but people would like to see if he can display some playmaking ability in order to boost him to Top-5.

Gerald Henderson, SG, 6'5", Junior, Duke (Comparison: Courtney Lee)

- He has a versatile all-round game and is so far projected to be mid-to-late-first round pick. The problem is, he is perceived as a streaky shooter. Can he benefit from a big Tourney to sneak into the lottery?

Earl Clark, SF, 6'9", Junior, Louisville (Comparison: Marvin Williams)

- long and athletic, Clark can also play PF. Perceived as an inconsistent player, the Tourney can determine whether he is mid-first round pick or Top-10.

Ty Lawson, PG, 5'11", Junior, UNC (Comparison: Raymond Felton)

- a mid-first round pick, but if UNC could go as far as the Final Four or further, Lawson may have a chance to go to the lottery.

Tyreke Evans, G, Freshman, Memphis (Comparison: Larry Hughes)

- an excellent scorer who has just been transformed into a PG. While the Derrick Rose comparison is not fair to him, Evans is so far mid-to-late-first round pick. A good Tourney hopefully could boost his value, like Rose last year, to say lottery.

DaJuan Blair, PF, 6'7", Sophomore, Pittsburgh (Comparison: Paul Millsap)

- an undersized PF in pro level, but a big Tourney run will help him to go from late-first round to top 10.

DeMar DeRozan, SG, 6'6", Freshman, USC (Comparison: Gerald Green)

- one of the most athletic guys in the Tourney. Already lottery bound, the success of the Trojans will help DeRozan to boost up to Top-10.

Cole Aldrich, C, 6'11", Sophomore, Kansas (Comparison: Kevin Love)

- one of the rare centers in this draft. This year's draft does not have too many top big men, so a good Tourney would give him a chance to crack the lottery, if not the Top-10.

Jrue Holiday, PG, 6'3", Freshman, UCLA (Comparison: Delonte West)

- He is the most intersting case. He's the most talented player in the team, but is very raw. While most scouts would like him with another year in college (and become a Top-3 pick in 2010), a big Tourney could convince GMs that he's NBA ready. Pure on talent, he's for sure lottery bound.

***

Here are the potential lottery picks not participating in the Tournament:

Greg Monroe, PF, 6'11", Freshman, Georgetown (Comparison: Pau Gasol)

- old school, fundamentally sound. He's not strong enough to play big in the pro level, but nonetheless is Top-5 locked.

Stephen Curry, PG, 6'3", Junior, Davidson (Comparison: Mike Bibby)

- I think Curry should have come out of college after a terrific run last season. However, his stock are still high despite Davidson missing the Tourney this season. Fearless, with strong leadership and a superb scoring skills, people like the way he's transformed into a PG. A Top-10 pick.

Competitive Landscape of the NBA

After all the injuries, deadline trades and veteran signings, let take a look at the competitive landscape of the league with around 20 games left for the season:

WEST:

Despite losing Andrew Bynum, the Lakers remain the favorite to win the West. Pau Gasol is more comfortable with the team after a full summer of practice, and Trevor Ariza is the energy guy that they have been looking for. Frankly, even without Bynum, I don’t think Phil Jackson worries about the Spurs much. Their goal is to win it all. Now, with the uncertainty arisen by KG’s injury, and with their own improved roster, the Lakers should be more confident when facing the Celtics this time around. As for the Cavs, the Lakers swept them this season, including a convincing win in Cleveland (Kobe sick, no Bynum) last month. They should not be scared by the Cavs should they meet them in the Finals. Yup, so far they looks like to be the favourite to win it all too.

The Spurs is at #2 but actually there’s quite some distance from the Lakers. Manu Ginobili will sit out the next 2-3 weeks, Caoch Greg Popovich is determined to give him as much rest as they can, so that Ginobili can be 100% in the playoffs. Newcomer Roger Mason is a pleasant surprise and Matt Bonner is probably the best scoring big men teammate Tim Duncan has ever had since the Admiral, but as I said many times, their defense has worsened quite considerably. Both Mason and Bonner are inferior defenders, and adding the fact that Bruce Bowen can no longer run with the opponents’ ace scorers, the Spurs might not have their famous suffocating defense on hand. I mean, how can the Spurs stop Kobe, Gasol and Odom at the same time? The addition of Drew Gooden is nice, but if you think he is the difference-maker, you probably should not be driving, cuz you've taken too much drugs.

No. 3 to No. 7 (Rockets, Jazz, Hornets, Blazers, Nuggets) are just 1 game apart. Yup, they are that close. The Rockets, now at #3, lost T-Mac for the season, but I think they did well by getting away the unproductive but aging Rafer Alston while adding a young and promising Kyle Lowry. Without T-Mac, they might remain competitive in the regular season, just like last year. But let's face it, their most problem is not talent but the lack of leadership. No one in the team can provide that, and please don't get me started with the "leadership" of Ron Artest. They stay no chance of beating the Lakers or the Spurs and if they maintain at #3, a second round exit is a likely outcome. They should, instead, focusing on the future, especially of Artest, who will become a FA this summer. He has been playing extremely well in the abesnce of T-Mac though.

The Jazz (#4) is the dark horse in the West. I’m not saying that they can beat the Lakers, but if healthy, the Jazz will be a serious threat to the Spurs, not to mention the Hornets and the Rockets. Carlos Boozer is back (however was out again in the last game), AK47 is also back and D-Will is healthy and once again playing like an all-star. They had been 8-2 for the last 10 games, and have just taken over the Northwest Division from the Nuggets. This is a well-coached team that went to the Conference Finals 2 years ago. They are as tough as steel and nobody would want to face them in the playoffs. While it’s remote to say that they can upset the Lakers, but anything other than that is entirely possible.

Perhaps the term "blessing in disguise" best described the Hornets. The non-trade of Tysan Chandler simply made them closer and stronger together. After struggling for the entire season, they are back on track again. CP3 and David West are playing like all-stars again. The chemistry is once again great and the team is in the zone. But the on-and-off injury of Tysan Chandler will be the determining factor on their success. If they really finishes at #5 as they are right now, they would have a tough matchup against the Jazz. I think they'd rather see the Rockets.

Everybody loves the Blazers (#6) and they are for sure young and lovable. I love them too and like everyone else, I love Brandon Roy. I’m glad that the rumored Vince Carter-Raef Lafrentz didn’t go through, but it’s a shame that they failed to make use of Lafrentz’s expiring contract to make any meaningful move before the trading deadline. The health of Greg Oden will forever be a concern, and so long as Oden has not been fully developed, the Blazers will remain just as a "first-round and out" team.

The Nuggets, once #3, had some recent struggle and the super intense competition in the West immediately sent them to #7. Say whatever you want about Billups, and they certainly are a better team than with Iverson, but I genuinely believe that this team is not as good as their record shows. Billups is good, ‘Melo is one of the league's top scorers and Nene has been a rare combination of size and athleticism, but others, namely Dahntay Jones, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith etc are all mediocre at best. If they can't regain the division title thus home court advantage in the first round, another early playoffs exit is the likely outcome.

The Mavs are playing better after the All-Star break, even without Jason Terry. With JT back, they should only be better. Although they are safer to make the playoffs now that the injury of Amare has pushed the Suns out of the playoffs picture, I don’t think they will be able to go any further. They just don’t defend well, as simple as that. They stay no chance of getting past the first round.

The Suns is an unlucky team. Just when things were turning around after the firing of Terry Porter, Amare went down. With Nash, J-Rich and Shaq, they remain as a solid team, but falling behind the Mavs by 4 games, it will be super tough for them to just make the playoffs without Amare. A huge blow to such a talented team. Anyway, the last playoffs spots will only grant them the rights to face the Lakers in the first round. I’m not sure it is worthy to do. Why not go to the lottery and try to get a better rookie this summer?


EAST:

Yes, the injury of KG (2-3 weeks) is a huge blow to the Celtics, and they might eventually end up at #2 in the East as a result. Yes, we saw how they beat the Cavs last weekend without KG, but we all know how important home court advantage is to the Celtics. Remember the horrible 6 consecutive road losses in last year’s playoffs? However, this is just a minor issue here. A more imminent problem is that this year’s Cs is not as deep as last year, and they don’t have a Posey or PJ Brown on the bench. Recent signings of Marbury and Mikke Moore help, but you will not confuse them with Posey and PJ Brown. Backup big men Big Baby and Leon Powe played well recently in the absence of KG, let's hope they could starting building up confidence. But at the end of the day, the Cs rely heavily on KG. If KG is anything but 100% when comes playoffs time, the Celtics will have trouble winning any frontcourt battle.

The Cavs was hit by injuries early on but now they have their full squad back. Big Z (Ilgauskas) is healthy, and Delonte West is back too. Yes, the Cavs were not able to pull a Shaq trade before the deadline, but they look like a legit contender right now. With the problems the Cs are facing, the Cavs have a good chance to win the conference this year. Adding Joe Smith is great, only is that he cannot replace Big Ben in the defensive end (yes, even the 2009 version of Big Ben). Last Friday's defeat in Boston is demoralizing, but nobody is hungrier than this team. They are young and dangerous. Oh and by the way, they have a player named LeBron James.

With Jameer Nelson’s season over, and despite the addition of Rafer Alston and Tyron Lue, the Magic are not figured to be a contender anymore. With 20 games left, they should be able to maintain their lead in their division and thereby locking up home court advantage in the first round. But what's next? They can't beat Celtics or Cavs anyway.

The Heat is a dark horse. I like their decision on sending the Matrix to Raptors. Jermaine O'Neal finally filled their big hole in the middle. They also added valuable role player Jamario Moon. With Wade playing like a MVP, the Heat, right now at #5 and is likely to start the first round on the road, could pull any upset against the Hawks or even the Magic. I’ve learnt that, with Wade, anything is possible. Rookie coach Erik Spoelstra needs to control and maximize the output of such a talented team. Is he up to the challenge?

After staying at the top in the East for years, the Pistons finally started to fall. Don’t blame Iverson, they would have gone south with or without the Billups-Iverson trade, although the trade for sure has speeded up the process. Let's make it clear, they took Iverson not because of his talent, but his expiring contract. I hate the Rip Ham coming off the bench experiment. Rip Ham, as we can see, is clearly more effective starting. You should never make roster decision simply because you don't want to upset the huge ego of an expiring contract (aka Iverson). People say they are experienced and talented, and it will not be a surprise for them to upset the Magic or the Hawks in the first round. But on second thought, you should never underestimate the potential damage on the team morale by the Iverson debacle. With a shaky morale, I don't see them pulling any upset in the playoffs, which would require a lot of confidence and determination. Their focus should be on this year’s and next year’s summer.

The Hawks and the Sixers are basically locked to the playoffs. Both teams have incomplete rosters and will just have a brief appearance in the playoffs.

The Bulls were quite busy last month making trades. They finally found a legit center in Brad Miller, got rid of Larry Hughes and Gooden, and added a young swingman (John Salmons). Yes, they miss Nocioni and his toughness, but this is a talented team mixed with youth and experience. They got size and athleticism. They have legit scorers and have partially alleviated the logjam in the guard positions. If I don’t look at the coach’s name, I will in no doubt picking them to get into the playoffs. I am still having problem connecting the words “coach” and “Del Negro”.

The Bucks play surprisingly good without their starting center (Andrew Bogut) and their franchise player (Michael Redd). They are now at #9 and are not far behind the Bulls (1/2 game). But the Bulls had a huge win last Friday over the Bucks, and gave the Bulls a tie-breaker. Kudos to the Bucks, and coach Scott Skiles, frankly, for playing hard in such an injury-plagued season.

The Nets failed to ship Vince Carter before the deadline. That’s a real shame, frankly. Consider this: this team is young, so young that they will unlikely make the playoffs any time before 2010 (although they are just 1 game behind the Bulls). Vince, now at 31, has no real business playing for a lottery team, except for the money. What they’ve been doing, is getting as much salary cap as possible for the impeding 2010 megastars sweepstake, and Vince’s contract won’t expire until 2011 the earliest. When 2010 comes, Vince will already be 34. The problem is, nobody wants Vince’s contract.

The Bobcats, just like other teams under Larry Brown in the first season, struggled in the first half but finally played some solid basketball in the second half. Yes, Larry Brown loves making roster moves but it's hard to argue against their solid plays recently. Seems like he finally has found a viable rotation: Felton, Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Diaw and Okafor starting, while DJ Augustin, Radmanovic and Diop off the bench. With just 1 game behind the Bulls, it would be a huge accomplishment if they could get into the playoffs.

The Knicks can continue dreaming of the playoffs.

Raptors send O'Neal to Heat for Marion

The trade:

Toronto Raptors agreed to trade center Jermaine O'Neal and swingman Jamario Moon (with a first round pick) to Miami Heat for ex-Suns Shawn Marion and guard Marcus Banks (and $3m cash).

For the Raptors:

Hailed as an up-n-coming team, the Raptors has been flat out horrible this season. Not only they failed to elevate to another level as expected, they are now second last in the East and can basically be ruled out of the playoffs even though there are still 30 games to play.

Apparently the management feels the same too. Yes, they were hit by injuries (Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh, JO). But even so, they shouldn't be that bad, ay? OK, they fired ex-COY Sam Mitchell (long due), but things didn't get any better with Canadian coach Jay Triano. With 2006 No.1 pick Andrea Bargnani finally coming to perform (yes, I traded him for JO early this season in my fantasy game, which looked good back then but obviously I gave him up too soon), they finally abandoned the JO experiment after just 50+ games.

As to why the JO trade failed, while there are many reasons, I believe the main problem is that both JO and Bosh are low post scorers who need the ball to be effective. Ideally, they should have turned JO into a role player, i.e. focusing on rebound, defense and facilitation while playing along with Bosh, and then taking the lead to score when Bosh sits. Somehow it never happened. At the same time, they saw Bargnani play extremely well after a horrible November. The problem is, even though he likes to shoot the 3s, Bargnani can't play at 3, since he can't catch up with the quick SF in the league. On the other hand, he did a passable job in blks and rebs. As such, the ideal frontcourt of Bargnani-Bosh-JO is not viable.

Given the age and the injury history, JO is obviously the odd-man out among the three. Matrix is quite ideal because they desperately need some scoring from the swingman position, because Anthony Parker or Jamario Moon are not scoring enough, while Jason Kapono only shoots 3s. Moreover, JO's contract is until 09-10 while Matrix's will expire after this season. So the Raptors can get some cost saving (10th highest in the league with $72m payroll this year) should they decide not to re-sign Matrix. Since they have all but given up this season, they can use the remaining 25-30 games to take a good look at Matrix.


For the Heat,

It's simple, size. Rookie Joel Anthony (6'9") is helplessly undersized at C, while Canadian Jamaal Magloire struggled mightily, start or not. With JO they have a legit C. WIth Dywane Wade shooting and slashing, JO has the entire paint for him to score. Udonis Haslem can now play at his natural position at PF. They don't need JO to be a 20-10 guy anymore, as they can settle him to be just 15-8. Matrix is expendable since he was never comfortable playing in Miami, as evidenced by his sharp drop in production (12.0 PPG 8.6 RPG this season vs. career avg of 17.9 PPG and 10.0 RPG).

Never underestimate the inclusion of Jamario Moon. Moon is an athletic player who is heavily underrated becaus he can't score much. However, he's a perfect role player, who plays hard and does all the dirty little works. He would be an ideal facilitator between Wade and JO. With Mario Chalmers running the game at PG and Haslem resume his old PF position, suddenly, the Heat have a complete lineup. While it will be a bit stretch to say they are contender now, but on paper they should be able to compete against any team not named Celtics or Cavaliers.

Furthermore, with JO manning the paint, Wade now needs not to take up all the scoring load and should see more open looks as a result of some double-teamming of JO. And we have seen how the Flash could single-handedly lift up the team to another level given a similar situation (2006 championship run).

What they give up is (1) salary flexibility. JO's $23m salary next year, which means they won't be able to make bid for any of this year's free agents (most notably Carlos Boozer); also without Matrix's expiring contracts, they will not be able to acquire talents from teams who want to dump salaries (Amare of Suns, for example); and (2) potential injury of JO, who's never played 82 games in any year and never played more than 70 games since, gasp, 03-04.

It's a calculated gamble for the Heat and even if it fails, they do not lose much and they still have the cap space for the 2010 mega free agency.

2009 Jan monthly review

EAST

Atlanta Division

Boston had won 11 straight after the embarrassing mini-slump during late Dec to early Jan. They returned to the top of the league again. Good thing is, Ray Allen has been playing like an all-star; bad thing is, Ray Allen was snubbed from the All-Star Game.

Toronto struggled without Jose Calderon, losing 7 straight. But during such losing stretch, they got some strong performance by Andrea Bargnani. Not just shooting the 3s, Bargnani was scoring (19.8 PPG) and rebounding (6.2 RPG). I still think the Raptors have a decent roster, esp. an enviable big man rotation of Bargnani, Bosh and O'Neal. They should be a better team.

Finally, we sawIguodala getting back into his old shape, and Philly were winning games and getting back some respect . But who would have guessed before the season that Elton Brand is coming off the bench and yet struggling mightily? Ladies and gentleman, your 2008 high priced free agent signing!

Central Division

Whenever Cleveland were flirting with the idea of being the best team in the league, they would inevitably lose some games, such as those two losses to fellow contenders, Lakers and Magic. Give credits to them though, as people are overlooked by the fact that they are having a perfect home record (22-0 and running) without two starters: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (just been back) and Delonte West (back around All-Star Weekend).

The Pistons had a horrible 6-9 record in January and has lost 7 of the last 10 games. I don’t know how to put it. Yes, you can blame Iverson, for obvious reason. Maybe Rip Ham's injury too. But what is more disappointing is the overall lack of effort. I watched a Pistons game last month, they simply had no energy at all. They just don’t fight. Period. Oh and BTW, do you know that they were actually the only team among the top 8 teams in the East with a negative point differential (-0.2) ?

The Bucks really had bad luck. Just when Andrew Bogut came back from injury, and they finally started to show some life by winning games, Michael Redd blew his knee and torn his ACL and MCL. Season over. Sad.

Southeast Division

Couldn’t think of a bigger month for the Magic: wins over top teams like Spurs, Lakers and Cavaliers, briefly topped the league with a 33-8 record, and then three players named to the All-Star Game (although unjustly). They have a relatively easy schedule in Feb, see if they can regain the #1 spotlater on.

A 8-7 Jan record is all the Bobcats need to gain respects from the league. Well, maybe I should also mention that those wins include over powerhouses like Celtics, Blazers, Suns, and yes, the Lakers. Who would even question Larry Brown again? Yes, just like in his past stints, he made major roster movements the very first season he arrived town, but you can’t deny that the team has improved substantially and Diaw has been playing like an all-star after coming to Charlotte.

I was checking the Heat’s roster the other day, and was shocked that the roster was absolutely D-League level. That is, other than D-Wade. Did Wade know, back when he was signing the extension in 2007, that he would be starting along with a second-round rookie (Chalmers) and an undrafted rookie (Joel Anthony), a limping Matrix and Haslem? And I will never understand why it took 40+ games for Coach Erik Spoelstra to realize that they are better off starting a 7-footer at C (Jamaal Magloire) than a 6’9” rookie (Joel Anthony). Amazing.


WEST

Northwest Division

It is really a bad month for Carmelo Anthony: broke his shooting hand, missed 10 games and then was snubbed from the All Star Game. Can’t say these three things are not connected. Luckily the Nuggets still managed to maintain its lead in the division (by 1.5 game over the Blazers).

Bad news for Portland: starting PG Steve Blake is out (separate right shoulder). Good news: backup Sergio Rodriguez and rookie Jerryd Bayless fitted in admirably. They were able to take advantage of an easy schedule and posted a 9-5 record in January. We have seen the potential of Oden, his most immiment need is to solve the foul-prone problem.

I think Utah Jazz is heavily underrated, just like his coach. Yes, they are at #9 in the West, but just 1/2 game behind the Suns. They have played without Boozer since Nov 19, and have gone through various injuries of D-Will, Okur and Millsap. Latest is that AK47 had an ankle surgery and will be out for at least 3-4 weeks. Yes, without AK47 it will be even harder for them to get into the playoffs, but people should never overlook the tremendous effort that D-Will and Jerry Sloan have put in.

The Wolves showed some signs of life when they posted a 10-4 record in Jan, prompting the media flirting with the idea of naming Kevin McHale a COY candidate andAl Jefferson being an All-Star. Slow down, fellows, not too soon. I think the recent success has more to do with shifting Randy Foye from PG to SG. And I agree that, although it’s not a big deal, Kevin Love not participating the Rookie Challenge is a real snub.

OK, the Team-formerly-known-as-Sonics reached 11 wins and is no longer the worst team in the league. Bravo.

Pacific Division

The coming-out party of Andrew Bynum (42 pts, 15 rebs) against the Clippers provide something to look forward to, only is that Bynum sprained his right knee (as opposed to his surgically repaired left knee) in the game against the Grizz on Jan 31. He will be out 8-12 weeks, which is a huge blow to the team. Feb will be a challenge for the Lakers, who will play 9 out of 13 games on the road, including stops at Boston and Cleveland.

You actually feel bad about the Clippers. No, really. With Baron Davis, Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Al Thornton and rookie sensation Eric Gordon, who would have expected them to be dead last in the league? Yes, blame injuries. But it is entirely acceptable if you suspect that all these players are taking their time slowly nursing their injuries instead of rushing back.

The Suns is a mystery. They are flat out mediocre. Well, at least they can’t blame Shaq, who’s been averaging 19.8 PPG and 9.0 RPG in Jan. Amare also averaged 19.7 PPG and 7.1 RPG, while Nash’s number is also respetable: 12.7 PPG and 11.9 APG. So what exactly is wrong with them? I don’t think they know the answer either. Guess that's exactly their problem: clueless. No more SSOL (Seven Seconds Or Less), but then they can’t excel in conventional setup. Guess they are real lost.

Southwest Division

Now standing firmly at #2 in the West after the win over the Hornets, the Spurs had a strong Jan, despite their worst loss of 87-109 at Philly. It is no coincidence that the Spurs started to play better defense and Manu Ginobili is regaining his all-star form.

I think the Rockets faced more injuries than the Jazz, only is that the Rockets have a deeper roster. Coach Rick Adelman deserves all the props by posting a respectable 29-19 record despite all these injuries. However, even assuming all the players are healthy, say after the All-Star Game, how could they generate optimal chemistry comes playoffs time when they have played so few games together?

The Hornets are not the same without Tysan Chandler. CP3 has boosted his scoring and rebounding in the absence of Chandler. But they could not win that way. For the 7 games when CP3 scored 30 or more pts this season, they only won 3 of them. The problem is, even before the injury, Chandler was not the same player as he was last year. He didn't rebound hard and block enough shots. What happened to him during summer? Some heart transplant?

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic, Thu, Jan 29, 2009

Magic scouting report

• You just love the way the Magic plays: full of team work, fluid ball movement, totally unselfish. Their basic strategy is either to shoot the 3 or get the ball to Dwight Howard inside to work it out. They have excellent outside shooters in Lewis, Turkoglu and recently Jameer Nelson. They would use a simple screen in the high post to get the shooters open; alternatively, they would drive and kick and find some open looks. And their shooters never fail to deliver.
• DH12 is basically unstoppable in the paint, esp. against the half-dead, half-retired Ben Wallace, or the Flop King Varejao. He remains a monster in rebounds.
• Turk is the designated point forward, in particular when he was leading the second unit. Never an athletic player, he possesses strong basketball IQ and did a nice job in initiating offense. His shots were a bit off today, but he still scored 19 pts and he still hit a couple of tough shots. Surprisingly he is a very solid rebounder (11 boards).
• All-star reserve Rashard Lewis is a smooth shooter who could score everywhere: outside shots, 3s and post-up turnaround Js.
• Another all-star reserve Jameer Nelson is a tough cookie. For sure he’s not a prototype PG, he does not focus on dishing or setting up teammates but that’s because the Magic’s system does not rely too much on the PG’s brilliance but overall teamwork. Instead, Nelson drives hard to the rim, scored on mid range J or 3s. In fact, IMHO, it was Nelson’s timely outside shots (4-for-6 3-pt) that have killed the Cavaliers.
• Rookie Courtney Lee is a very serviceable role player. He plays hard and runs hard. Scored a couple of shots, esp. a beautiful fastbreak layup in which he managed to hang in the air long enough to get away with LBJ’s hands and scored on reverse.
• Yes, they are not deep on the bench, but both Pietrus and Anthony Johnson did a not-so-spectacular but nonetheless serviceable job. I could hardly see Tony Battie play though.
• As for defense, the Magic played very sloppy defense in the first half, failing to rotate and many a time ended up leaving the Cavs wide open in the paint. At the same time, they were not able to slow down the wing players. However, they tightened up their D late in Q3 and throughout Q4, forced a few turnovers, made a couple of steals, and then they hit a few 3s, and a few fastbreak baskets and just like that, they had a 20-2 run which ended up leading by 99-74 pts with 5.20 mins left. The rest is history. No, they were not able to shut down LBJ, but at least they were successful in preventing LBJ from driving the lane, and the King always settled for outside jumpshots. And he was not sharp tonight.
• Just for this night, the Magic looks like a legitimate title contender and kudos to Coach Stan Van Gundy for his ability to maximize the output of his not-so-complete roster by taking advantage of the special skills of his players.