NBA FInals Preview

Finals preview, let's break it down:

Guards: Fisher + Kobe + Shannon Brown + Farmar vs. Alston + Courtney Lee + Pietrus + Anthony Johnson

Adv: Lakers

Fisher is Lakers' weakest link, but arguably PG is also the weakest link in the Magic. Alston likely will have just 1 hot shooting night for every 3 poor shooting night. He will shoot the Magic to losses. Fisher is ultra slow but he's a much better shooter and facilitator than Alston. Brown will burn Anthony Johnson with his quickness.

Needless to say anything about Kobe. BTW, I never understand why people say Pietrus did a good job guarding LBJ. For goodness' sake LBJ averaged 38.5 PPG on 48.7% FG against the Magic. Yes he is LBJ, but the stats were still way higher than that against the Pistons and the Hawks. I don't see how Pietrus could stop Kobe.


Forwards: Ariza + Gasol + Odom + Luke Walton vs. Turkoglu + Rashard Lewis

Adv: Lakers

One of the Magic's main weapons is outside shooting ofTurkoglu and Lewis. While they took full advantage of the undersized Cavs to score, expect them to have more difficulty to score against Ariza and Odom. Kobe might spend some time guarding either of them too.

Another problem of the Magic is that they have basically ZERO depth at the forward position, whereas depth is exactly the forte of the Lakers. Ariza is young and athletic, Gasol will start at PF but finish at C, and Odom can play either SF or PF, and can play inside-outside. The Magic will get their hands full on such a 3-man rotation, not to mention the occasional contribution from Luke Walton.


C: Andrew Bynum + Gasol vs. Dwight Howard + Gotat

Adv: Magic x 2

I don't think I emphasize it enough, the advantage of Magic is HUGE. The red hot D12 is totally unstoppable right now. The worst nightmare for the Lakers? D12 is hitting his FTs lately. So the Lakers cannot throw out Josh Powell (and his 6 fouls-to-give) to do the "hack-the-superman" tactics.

On the other side, we have the "promising" Andrew Bynum, who is just a part-time here, averaging only 17 MPG this post season. He's so poor in defense that he was either in foul trouble or the coach simply benched him all the way. Against D12, Bynum will easily get fouled-out and/or DNP-CD. As for Gasol, well, we know he's soft and can't imagine how he could guard D12. Alas, how on earth could the Lakers slow down Dwight Howard if they couldn't even slow down Nene and K-Mart? But Gasol will score some in the mid-range against D12.

Coach: Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy

Adv: Even

OK, my personal preference aside, to be fair, SVG is a good coach who maximizes his team's performance. He's flexible and makes changes when necessary. I think he's a better coach than his bro, Jeff. He only talks too much. Yikes.

As for the Zen Master, well, frankly, I have serious reservation. It seems like since the retirement of assistant coach Tex Winter (the architect of the Triangle Offense), Phil is no longer the same. Many a time, he made questionable moves and he simply didn't have the midas touch on some key moments that he used to have. Worse, his team is super inconsistent and doesn't play first-class defense. So, maybe we should credit at least part of his past success to Tex Winter then?


Gameplays:

The greatest strengths of the Lakers are their versatility and depth. If the Lakers could share the ball like they did in Game 6 of the Conf. Finals, the Magic will have serious trouble guarding them. The Lakers can score in the paint, mid-range and even the 3s. Kobe, Odom and Gasol, all of them can score or pass, which makes them ultra difficult to guard. In addition, if the Lakers run fastbreaks, they can use their depth and athleticism to wear down the Magic. Last but not least, they have Kobe to bail them out in close games.

On the other hand, the Magic will continue their inside-out game play. They have huge advantage by posting up Howard against the soft frontcourt of the Lakers. If the Lakers decide to double-team him, this will generate tons of open looks for the Magic's shooting stars like Turk, Lewis, Lee and Pietrus. However, for one-on-one, the Magic's perimeter players are not that easy to score against Kobe, Ariza and Odom.

The wildcard? Lakers' defense.

Although people are saying that Nelson might return, but given his shoulder problem, his contribution will be limited, more a mental boost than anything. So he's not a wildcard. The wildcard is whether the Lakers can stay focused and stop the Magic. We have seen them played terrific defense before, when they were concentrated enough. If they can somehow control the damage of D12 (c'mon, you can't STOP him) and avoid open looks on the perimeter, the Lakers will beat the Magic with its versatility and depth. On the other hand, if they become lethargic in defense and try to out-score opponents, the Magic will prevail.

Prediction: Lakers in 6.