NBA season 2008-2009 Part II

Here you go. Again, only playoffs bound teams are included.

WEST

1. LA Lakers

Depth Chart:
PG: Derek Fisher / Jordon Farmar
SG: Kobe Bryant / Sasha Vujacic / Sun Yue
SF: Lamar Odom / Luke Walton / Trevor Ariza
PF: Pau Gasol / Vladimir Radmanovic / Brian Cook
C: Andrew Bynum / Chris Mihm

Comments:
Last year, they stormed through the highly competitive Western Conference to advance to the Finals. Pinned by many (including yours truly) as the heavy favorite to win it all, they eventually were badly defeated. Mental breakdown, defense failure, they were out-hustled and out-played by the Celtics in the Finals. Now, no matter what happened last year, with Andrew Bynum back, they remain the clear favorite to win it all this season. They have arguably the most talented roster in the league, and they are deep. I don’t see much problem playing Gasol and Bynum together as Gasol has the range to play outside the paint or in the high post while Bynum will spend most of the time in the low post. After getting much acclaims with his service for the national team in Beijing, Kobe should have satisfied his own ego, keep his mouth shut and be a good teammate. That is, until things turn bad. Odom disappeared in the Finals and despite his talent, remains their weakest link. I genuinely believe that they should move Odom while his value is still high. Phil Jackson is thinking about starting the athletic Arizato and playing Odom off the bench as 6th man, to create a big mismatch for the other team’s bench players. I think that’s a brilliant idea, only if Odom can forget his ego and fully submerge into Zen Master’s game plan.

Players to watch:
Andrew Bynum.
Too many questions: is he 100% recovered? How durable is he? Can he play defense? Most importantly, is he as good as everyone thinks? After all, he’s just played 35 games last season, his so-called “break out” season. Sure he got talent, but can he be productive on a long term basis? He’s the difference between a champion and a contender.


2. New Orleans Hornets

Depth Chart:
PG: Chris Paul / Mike James
SG: Morris Peterson / Rasual Butler / Devin Brown
SF: Peja Stojakovic / James Posey / Julian Wright
PF: David West / Melvin Ely / Ryan Bowen
C: Tyson Chandler / Hilton Armstrong

Comments:
Other than the Lakers, there is not a clear frontrunner in the West. You can put the Spurs here, or the Rockets, or the Jazz. The Hornets has arguably one of the most complete (starting) lineups in the West. Their three stars, CP3, D-West and Chandler, are one year older and should be one year wiser and better. The health of Peja again will be the critical factor for their success, simply because they have no other reliable shooters. Their weakness is at SG, since neither MoPete or Butler can scare anyone. But their main problem is bench. They will definitely miss backup G Pargo, who had some heroic moments in the playoffs. Mike James is not exactly as reliable or as unselfish as Pargo. As for the depth at swingmen, they tried to address such issue by signing G/F James Posey using the entire mid-cap exception. For sure Posey is an excellent role player who played a significant role in the Heat’s and Celtics’ championship runs. He will provide veteran leadership to the team. But at the age of 31, I’m just not sure that the price is right (4-year $24 million). Overall not much improvement from last season but the maturity of the players is already good enough. We need to see if Byron Scott is the coach that can bring them to another level.

Players to watch:
Chris Paul.
C’mon, man! Who else? Can he challenge LBJ to be the MVP?


3. San Antonio Spurs

Depth Chart:
PG: Tony Parker / Jacque Vaughn
SG: Manu Ginobili / Michael Finley / Roger Mason
SF: Bruce Bowen / Ime Udoka
PF: Tim Duncan / Matt Bonner
C: Fabricio Oberto / Kurt Thomas / Ian Mahinmi

Comments:
You guys must be complaining that I have put them too high here. Maybe, but I’m a Spurs fan! Ha ha. The Spurs went to the Conference Finals last season which should warrant me to put them at #2. Only is that the injury of Ginobili made me put them one spot lower. But frankly, do you really think that the Rockets, the Jazz or the Suns could beat this team? Seriously? What do you got here? Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili. Yawn. Yes, it’s the same old team that won the championship in 2007. Or 2005. Or 2003. But they are still at their prime, and to me, there’s simply no better trio in the league. Their problem is outside these three. Bowen, Oberto, Finley, Vaughn, Kurt Thomas and even Udoka are all in their 30s. What makes me uncomfortable, is that it’s a very disappointing off-season as they failed to make any significant improvement or getting any young talents. It’s a not-so-small drawback that 2007 draftee F/C Brazilian Tiago Splitter elected not to join the team and preferred to stay in Spain. Now Manu re-injured his left ankle. Newly signed Roger Mason is not exactly a savior. We saw the Spurs’ defense slipped a bit last season, and given the ageing concern, especially their defense ace Bowen, it’s unlikely that their defense could get any better. All things point to a start of a decline of the Spurs dynasty. Sad but true.

Players to watch:
Manu Ginobili.
Manu became the team’s best player last season, and his ankle injury is the major reason they lost to the Lakers in the WCF. Now he re-injured it in the Olympics and will be out until December. They need him to be 100% in order to remain competitive. Popovich always put Ginobili off the bench to create a mismatch, a tactic which has been very successful in the past. But with Finley now 36, I don’t think they could afford not to start Manu (Roger Mason? Please). This means they will simply lose one of their most lethal weapons.


4. Houston Rockets

Depth Chart:
PG: Rafer Alston / Aaron Brooks / Steve Francis
SG: Tracy McGrady / Luther Head / DJ Strawberry
SF: Ron Artest / Shane Battier / Brent Barry / Mike Harris / Patrick Ewing Jr.
PF: Luis Scola / Chuck Hayes / Carl Landry
C: Yao Ming

Comments:
Once again, the Rockets are the wild card in the West. On paper, the trio of T-Mac, Yao and Artest could compete with any team’s 3 best players. And they have the glue guy in Battier, a high scoring PF in Luis Scola, and some excellent role players in Alston, Luther Head, Brent Barry, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry. But somewhere somehow, the Rockets have always disappointed us. That’s because T-Mac and Yao have never been completely healthy. The Artest gamble is worth it, because T-Mac is not likely to be effective for long due to the chronic back injury. Yao is certainly not Bill Russell-like durable and given his frequent national duty, it’s not likely Yao could stay healthy for long. The window will be soon closing and they need to act now. Artest is not the perfect guy but he can play at SG, SF or even PF, allowing them to play big and small. The ability to play small is very important to the Rockets, considering Yao will likely be out 10-20 games a season. They don’t need Artest to score, something he’s been obsessed with. They got enough scorers in T-Mac, Yao and Scola. They need Artest to play earnest defense and make passes. They have been too soft in the past and Artest can put some toughness to the team. In terms of talent, they can for sure challenge the Lakers. The question is, can Rick Adelman tame Artest?

Players to watch:
Ron Artest.
Enough said. Fingers crossed.


5. Utah Jazz

Depth Chart:
PG: Deron Williams / Brevin Knight / Ronnie Price
SG: Ronnie Brewer / Kyle Korver / Morris Almond
SF: Andrei Kirilenko / Matt Harpring / CJ Miles
PF: Carlos Boozer / Paul Millsap
C: Mehmet Okur / Jarron Collins / Kosta Koufos (r) / Kyrylo Fesenko

Comments:
I have said it in last year’s preview that the Jazz is the team for the future. They finished 5th in this competitive West last year and I expect them to do no worse this season. However, they are far from the best team. Look, D-Will is superb, Boozer is a monster in the paint (offense only), but after that, who else? While you can say the Williams-Boozer tandem is the 21st century’s version of Stockton-to-Malone, they don’t have a Jeff Hornacek, or Bryon Russell, or Mark Eaton. Like the Hornets, their weakest link is at the SG position. Brewer is athletic, defends well, but can’t shoot. Korver shoots well but can’t do anything else. So it is just like pick your poison to start either. If AK47 plays up to his potential, for sure they could be a title contender. But I have had enough about AK47’s inconsistency, after having him in my fantasy team 2 seasons ago. Okur is a serviceable center who can shoot 3s. Alas, he’s at least better than Ostertag for crying out loud! As for their bench, Knight, Korver Harpring and Millsap are solid, but hardly threatening. But as long as Sloan remains as the coach, they will remain competitive and be able to get to at least the second round and be a dark horse to advance to the Conference Finals season after season.

Players to watch:
Andrei Kirilenko.
Frankly, after all these years, I should have no more hope about AK47. Yet his sheer talent always intrigues us. He is so versatile, and has such a long frame, quickness and sharpness that he could stop anyone at SG, SF and PF, so long as he does not fall in love with shooting 3s and whining about not getting enough touch.


6. Phoenix Suns

Depth Chart:
PG: Steve Nash / Goran Dragic (r) / Sean Singletary
SG: Raja Bell / Leandro Barbosa
SF: Grant Hill / Matt Barnes / Alando Tucker
PF: Amare Stoudemire / Boris Diaw
C: Shaquille O’Neal / Robin Lopez (r)

Comments:
Gone are D’Antoni and his running game. New coach Terry Porter is figured to be a more conventional coach, and the team is figured to be more conventional too. Expect Terry Porter to emphasize defense and slow things down. It’s a complete change of identity. In the past, the Suns’ run-n-gun had created a lot of fun and excitement. Despite all the hype, however, such game type, however, has not won them anything. Not even a conference title. While I think Steve Kerr is right to bite the bullet and make change, I’m not quite sure about all his moves. Most controversial, of course is the Shaq acquisition. But don’t blame Steve Kerr on that. First, the Matrix had been causing some unrest in the locker in the past two years as he asked for more touches, and eventually became a locker room poison after New Year when he learnt that the Suns wouldn’t sign any extension. The chemistry was in jeopardy, so he HAD to go. Second, the management’s reluctance to pay was the real cause of the fall of the Suns. They gave up many quality first round picks, and let talents FAs like Joe Johnson go. Now they are getting old and depth has become an issue. Who to blame? They have really wasted the talent of Nash, Marion and Amare. OK, back to Shaq. He changed his focus to rebounding and setting up teammates after coming to Phoenix, and he did that admirably (although T/O-prone). The record actually was not much worse than before the trade. But the question is, are all these “role player” job descriptions worth $20 million a year? Now, if you check, Nash is not at his best with slow-down, half court set; they don’t have enough outside shooters; they don’t have depth at the wing; and without Marion and Kurt Thomas, they have limited post defense. All these things don’t look good to me. I may be wrong. And I hope so.

Players to watch:
Goran Dragic.
Drafted by the Suns in the second round of this year’s draft, the team paid his Spanish club Tau Ceramica some decent money to buy him out, so he must be special. According to scout report, he has good defense and quick hand, more a drive-n-dish PG who likes transition games. His court vision is not outstanding and his jump shots are questionable. Can he be THE apprentice to our Nash?


7. Dallas Mavericks

Depth Chart:
PG: Jason Kidd / Keith McLeod / Jose Juan Barea
SG: Jason Terry / Jerry Stackhouse / Antoine Wright
SF: Josh Howard / Devean George / Gerald Green / James Singleton
PF: Dirk Nowitzki / Brandon Bass
C: Erick Dampier / DaSagana Diop

Comments:
Another team in the decline. Like the Shaq trade, I will give the benefit of the doubt for the Kidd trade for now. I’d like to see how a full season (plus preseason) of Kidd + Dirk would turn out. But the trade has really hurt their depth. They need a solid PG to play 10-12 minutes to back up Kidd but I don’t know whether McLeod or Barea is up to the challenge. They can’t rely on Stackhouse, 33, anymore. His stats have been dropping since he joined the Mavs in 2004, so they need contribution from Antoine Wright and Gerald Green. I like Brandon Bass and Diop, but they have limited offense skills. But most concerning is Josh Howard. He didn’t escalate his game much last season and literally disappeared in the playoffs. Off the court, he admitted the usage of marijuana and then the recent national anthem debacle. He needs to get his mind straight, and has the conscious of being the second best player. I like the hiring of Rick Carlisle because he is a very experienced and resourceful coach who focuses on defense. He is a hard core coach and doesn’t communicate well with his players, but hopefully he could win the players’ respect due to his knowledge and record. There are some speculations that the no-nonsense Carlisle might not get along with the strong willed Kidd. I think it’s ok, at least for the first season. Kidd seldom feuds with the coaches during the first two seasons. I wish the Mavericks could rebound and compete again in the West.

Players to watch:
Jason Kidd.
Yes, Kidd is old, even showed considerable slowness in the Olympics, but he also proved to be a true good floor general that could really calm down the team when things are tight. Now the burden is on him to prove that the Mavs made the right decision to give up Devin Harris for him. How will he react?


8. Portland Trail Blazers

Depth Chart:
PG: Steve Blake / Jerryd Bayless / Sergio Rodriguez
SG: Brandon Roy / Rudy Fernandez
SF: Martell Webster / Travis Outlaw
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Channing Frye
C: Greg Oden / Joel Przybilla / Ike Diogu

Comments:
Welcome to the “Oden Watch” season. This season, everyone will follow closely the development of Greg Oden and make his own view whether he’s better than Durant. But people should not forget about the other Blzers. Roy is an all-star already, and Aldridge has put up decent stats last season. These two, together with Oden, form a solid core. Blake and Webster are more than your normal supporting cast. They are disciplined and play hard. Then you have summer league phenom Bayless and Rudy “in your face D12” Fernandez. This team is deep, as in 2-player deep in each position. Fernandez, Outlaw, Frye and Przybilla can easily start for any team. Plus they are young. Another good thing about them is Coach Macmillan. He is a good teacher for young kids. He teaches them teamwork, discipline and defense. Maybe they are too young to reach the top echelon in the West this year, but give them one or two years, they will soar. Their weakness is low post scoring, as Aldridge likes to shoot the mid-range rather than scoring down low and Przybilla is not exactly a scorer. Oden could fill their need somehow. Expectation is now high and the once quiet Portland is gradually getting national attention. After all these publicity and expectation, can we really name them “dark horse”? I like this team, and I like their chance to reach the playoffs too.

Players to watch:
Greg Oden.
Enough said.

Rudy Fernandez.
The media call him the Spanish Ginobili. And I feel offended. Ginobili is way more versatile, especially on defense, and talented than him … anyway, McMillan should play him and develop him to be a super sub, just like Ginobili.


9. LA Clippers

Depth Chart:
PG: Baron Davis / Jason Hart / Mike Taylor (r)
SG: Cuttino Mobley / Eric Gordon (r)
SF: Al Thornton / Ricky Davis
PF: Marcus Camby / Tim Thomas / Steve Novak
C: Chris Kaman / Brian Skinner / DeAndre Jordan (r) / Paul Davis

Comments:
There will be three teams challenging the Blazers for the last playoffs spots: Clippers, Warriors and Nuggets. I put the Clippers at the top among the three because they have the deepest roster. They have all-star Baron Davis, and an envious 7-footer tandem in Camby and Kaman. Young gun Al Thornton showed huge potential last season and this should be his breakout season. They also have rookie Eric Gordon and Ricky Davis to provide bench scoring. Plus, they are flexible too. They can go small by playing BD, Gordon and Ricky Davis at 1,2,3 and Thornton at PF; alternatively they can go big by playing Thornton at SF and Camby at PF. The problem is, if BD is hurt, they don’t have Jason “No More White Chocolate” Williams (retired) to run the show and Jason Hart is not exactly a starting material. While we are here, let’s see, they have a whopping 11 new comers. Except for Mobley, Thornton and Kaman, all are new to the team. How long will they need to generate chemistry? And many of them have been labeled as troublemakers. Can Dunleavy handle all of the “character” guys like BD, RD and even Kaman? For sure it would be chaotic, but the talent is there. And the show is in LA.

Players to watch:
Al Thornton.
Thornton should build on his solid rookie season to make himself a legitimate starter.


10. Denver Nuggets

Depth Chart:
PG: Allen Iverson / Chucky Atkins
SG: J.R. Smith / Linas Kleiza
SF: Carmelo Anthony / Renaldo Blackman
PF: Kenyon Martin / Chris Anderson
C: Nene / Steven Hunter

Comments:
They gave away Camby for free, meaning that they have decided to give up and are officially in the rebuilding stage. This year’s Nuggets would be a lame duck one as AI will be playing out his contract without any extension offer. I won’t expect AI to give up but nonetheless will hurt the chemistry because everyone KNEW that he would be gone. Anyway, with AI, ‘Melo and the recently re-signed JR Smith, they will score a lot. But without Camby, they don’t have anyone to protect the paint. In the past, AI, JR Smith and ‘Melo gambled a lot on defense and it was Camby who had been covering their mistakes. Now? K-Mart? Nene? Please. And if they only managed to reach the first round with Camby, they are very likely to fall out of the playoffs without him. And is the $60 million Nene ready to start? It always seems like he will never be ready.

Players to watch:
Renaldo Blackman.
An athletic forward who runs hard and plays hard, which fit the style of George Karl. An energy guy who is a fans’ favorite in New York. Limited upside in offense but can potentially boost up the defense of the Nuggets at the forward positions.


11. Golden States Warriors

Depth Chart:
PG: Monta Ellis (inj) / Marcus Williams / CJ Watson
SG: Corey Maggette / Kelenna Azubuike / Marco Belinelli
SF: Stephen Jackson / Anthony Randolph (r)
PF: Al Harrington / Brandan Wright
C: Andris Biedrins / Ronny Turiaf

Comments:
Same old Nellie ball, expect them to continue playing their “all-out offense, no defense” show. Expect them to play small balls for 70% of the time. As discussed, they signed Corey Maggette who is a gifted and athletic player, which somehow mitigate the damage caused by the departure of Baron Davis. Expect Maggette to post up some strong scoring numbers which should exceeds that of BD’s. Maggette is ok on defense but BD simply didn’t play any defense. BD’s ball handling job will be shared by Ellis (when he returns) and Marcus Williams. Talent-wise, it’s not that a big drop. What they miss is BD’s craziness. Yes, the same craziness that propelled them to beat the Mavs in 2007 playoffs (with the help of the now departed J-Rich). Alright, they still have Steph Jax, the other crazy guy, but the team is just not the same. In the past, they were named as “the team that nobody wants to face at #8”. Nowadays, teams are not scared by them anymore. They have lost the fear factor. Granted, give them credits to play hard until the very last game to fight for the playoffs spot last season. This year? Monta Ellis will be out at least until December due to the moped accident, it would be a more tough time for them to hang on before Christmas. And did I tell you that rosters in Portland and LA Clippers have been vastly improved? But they still have Don Nelson, who can always surprise you by in unorthodox coaching method. So I have to put them down on here as a potential dark horse.

Players to watch:
Marcus Williams.
Originally I put Ellis here. Now that he’s gone, it’s up to Marcus Williams to run the offense. I’ve watched Williams played while he was with the Nets. He has good court vision and passing skills, and he has a reliable outside jump shots. But he is inconsistent as a floor general and is helpless in defense. That’s fine, the Warriors don’t need a pure PG and they don’t play D at all.