NBA season 2008-2009 Part I

(this was written before the season started.)

Here you go. Only playoffs bound teams are included.

EAST

1. Boston Celtics

Depth Chart:
PG: Rajon Rondo / Eddie House / Sam Cassell / Gabe Pruitt
SG: Ray Allen / Tony Allen / J. R. Giddens (r)
SF: Paul Pierce / Bill Walker (r) / Darius Miles
PF: Kevin Garnett / Leon Powe / Brian Scalabrine
C: Kendrick Perkins / Glen Davis / Patrick O’Bryant

Comments:
Defending champion is the #1 by default. Like other defending champions, they did not do much in the off-season. They replaced James Posey by Darius Miles, which is one of the oddest things. I mean, it’s fine to let Posey go if you think the price is not right, but Darius Miles? Anyway, the Big Three remains intact, albeit one year older. For sure they will lose some of the hunger after winning the championship, but pride and cockiness, and KG’s intensity should prevent them from being too complacent. Last year, they won by teamwork and super tough defense. (Defense wins championship, ay?) I don’t think they could be able to remain at such a high intensity in terms of defense for two seasons in a row. In addition, the interior scoring would remain their weakness, which they chose not to address at all during the off season. Yes, I don’t think they can repeat, although they should win the East. Their real enemies are in the West.

Players to watch:
Leon Powe.
Love his play and he had one monster game in the Finals. A true low post player with good working ethics. He’s their only low post scorer. Need to develop more consistency. Oh, this is his contract year too.


2. Detroit Pistons

Depth Chart:
PG: Chauncey Billups / Rodney Stuckey / Will Bynum
SG: Richard Hamilton / Arron Afflalo
SF: Tayshuan Prince / Amir Johnson / Walter Sharpe (r)
PF: Antonio McDyess / Jason Maxiell / Walter Herrmann
C: Rasheed Wallace / Kwame Brown / Cheick Samb

Comments:
Just like the Spurs, this is another team that bores you to death. The Pistons did not do much to improve the roster, unless you count the signing of Kwame Brown. This very same team has been together since 2003 (‘Sheed since 2004) and gone to 6 consecutive conference finals. Great job. But they were beaten by the Heat, Cavs and Celtics respectively in the last three years. And Joe Dumars still insisting on sticking with the same group? For sure they are deep and talented. My bet is that they would post decent regular season record this year, but then they will lose out in the playoffs. They somehow lack the sense of emergency. At times they looked laid back and relaxed, even in the playoffs. And did I mention that this squad is actually quite old? The worst is, their best player, Rasheed Wallace, had repeatedly failed to step up his game in clutch games. Yes, they have some terrific young bench players like Stuckey, Amir Johnson and Maxiell, but none of them has shown star potential. I think this team as a whole have peaked. Joe D. should bring some new sparks and re-energize the team. Well, maybe he thinks Coach Michael Curry is THE spark. But I seriously doubt it.

Players to watch:
Amir Johnson.
This is the second consecutive season I put him here. (Yes, I’m that stubborn.) Drafted in 2005 straight out of high school, the Pistons re-signed Amir Johnson last summer for 3 years. At 6’11”, he has good size and athleticism, and people say he has huge upside potential. Expect the Pistons to play more of Amir instead of the ageing ‘Sheed and ‘Dice during the regular season.


3. Cleveland Cavaliers

Depth Chart:
PG: Maurice Williams / Eric Snow / Delonte West
SG: Sasha Pavlovic / Daniel Gibson
SF: LeBron James / Wally Szczerbiak
PF: Ben Wallace / JJ Hickson / Darnell Jackson (r)
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas / Anderson Varejao / Lorenzen Wright

Comments:
For years, Danny Ferry has been trying to find a legit second banana for LBJ. Ricky Davis, Jeff McInnis, Larry Hughes, Damon Jones, Drew Gooden, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szczerbiak, you name it. Latest is Maurice Williams. Last year he averaged 17.2 PPG and 6.3 APG, which are certainly nice numbers, only is that you should remember Larry Hughes once averaged 22.2 PPG and 4.7 APG in Washington before joining the Cavs. And see what happened to him after that! Don’t rely on stats too much. Truth is, as long as Mike Brown sticks with the game plan of initiating every offense by LBJ dribbling at the top of key, the Cavs offense will remain pathetically predictable, and it really doesn’t matter who the second banana is. You have seen how LBJ played in the Olympics, you knew that he doesn’t need to dominate the ball to be effective. However, Mo Williams is not exactly J-Kidd or CP3. Can he be a good playmaker? In fact, can LBJ trust Mo Williams? Or any teammates? It took 5 years for MJ to trust his teammate, who happened to be Pippen. Maybe it’s time for LBJ to let go and trust his teammates. Is Mo Williams his Pippen? They also need Big Ben to play the Horace Grant / Dennis Rodman role. Is he healthy enough to do that? BTW, the bench is just too painfully weak.

Players to watch:
Maurice Williams.
Mo Williams is ultra quick and can flat out score. He can run the team too although he’s a shoot-first PG.. Billed as a selfish player, Mo Williams likes to shoot the 3s but he’s not that sharp (38.5%). Will he be LBJ’s long sought sidekick? Or is he just another Larry Hughes?


4. Orlando Magic

Depth Chart:
PG: Jameer Nelson / Anthony Johnson
SG: Mickael Pietrus / Keith Bogans / JJ Redick / Courtney Lee (r)
SF: Rashard Lewis / Brian Cook
PF: Hedo Turkoglu / Tony Battie
C: Dwight Howard / Adonal Foyle / Marcin Gortat

Comments:
Everybody loves Dwight Howard. Maybe that’s why he’s a bit overrated. He’s strong and athletic, has a huge frame, rebounds hard and blocks shots. On the other side, he has no post move. His defense is questionable and he has horrible FT%. The Olympics completely exposed his weaknesses. As a team, PF Tony Battie sat out almost the entire season last year. So Stan Van Gundy put 4 shooters around D12, using Rashard Lewis at PF and gave them the green light to fire 3s. It was sort of successful and the Magic finished 4th in the East. However that is not enough for them to win the Conference. Nelson has yet to prove to be a starter in the league. Lewis scores aplenty but remains to be a passive player. Last season, it was Turkoglu who stepped up to be the leader and delivered during clutch time. But either Lewis at PF or Turk being the go-to guy is not the answer. Even if they are willing to commit 100% to the Suns’ run-n-gun style. But even that is not a good option because they do not have a brilliant PG like Nash to run the offense. Adding Pietrus sort of addressed their needs at SG but I don’t think they have done enough over the summer to take them to another level. Their bench is weak too.

Players to watch:
Mickael Pietrus.
After spending 5 years in Golden State as backups, it’s now his opportunity to prove that he’s a starter material. Pietrus is more a slasher than a shooter, but he plays ok defense. For sure an upgrade over Keith Bogans.


5. Toronto Raptors

Depth Chart:
PG: Jose Calderon / Roko Ukic (r) / Willie Solomon
SG: Anthony Parker / Hassam Adams
SF: Jamario Moon / Jason Kapono / Joey Graham
PF: Chris Bosh / Andrea Bargnani / Kris Humphries
C: Jermaine O’Neal / Nathan Jawai

Comments:
It’s a tough decision at #5. The Raptors used to belong here, however, the Sixers added Brand and has hugely boosted up its stocks. I’ll put the Raptors here based on its past record (and my personal feeling towards them). The biggest news of course is the addition of JO and the departure of TJ Ford. JO is certainly an upgrade over Nesterovic. However, it could be a huge improvement to the team only if (1) JO would be healthy for a long stretch; and (2) he could accept to be a supporting role to Bosh. They now handle the full time PG job to Jose Calderon, who had a slight tear of the adductor muscle in his right thigh in the Olympics but is considered to be minor and he should be healthy by the time the season begins. They need more scorers and I think the loss of Delfino is larger than expected. Joey Graham and Hassam Adams are not exactly the all-round scorer Delfino is. Maybe after this season, we could officially name Bargnani a bust. Still can’t see them going past 2nd round yet.

Players to watch:
Jermaine O’Neal.
If he can accept a demoted role of not being the franchise player and be healthy, the Raptors should be able to go past first round. But that’s a huge “if”. Also, Bosh is too soft and they need JO to play down low. This is not exactly what JO wants, and this will further increase the chance of JO getting injured.


6. Philadelphia 76ers

Depth Chart:
PG: Andre Miller / Lou Williams / Royal Ivey
SG: Andre Iguodala / Willie Green
SF: Thaddeus Young / Kareem Rush
PF: Elton Brand / Reggie Evans / Donyell Marshall
C: Samuel Dalembert / Marreese Speights (r)

Comments:
Many people say they should be in top 4 but I beg to differ. Sure, the addition of Brand immediately put the Sixers into playoffs bound, but don’t get too carried away by such hype. Yes, Brand is a legit 20-10 guy (assuming he’s completely healed), Iguodala is a versatile player, Andre Miller remains one of the most underrated pure PG and Thaddeus Young has huge potential. The thing is, they do not have enough scoring, especially outside shooters. Iguodala is not exactly a big scorer, while Willie Green is a streaky shooter at best. Also, is Thaddeus Young ready to start? The bench is pretty weak and the lack of depth might be disastrous for a 82-game season. You just don’t rely on Will Green and Kareem Rush to run your second unit. This is a young and promising team, but I don’t think this is the year for them to go deep into the playoffs.

Player to watch:
Elton Brand.
Let’s assume he’s 100%. He will play hard as usual. With Andre Miller as PG, he should be able to get more easy buckets. I’ve never seen Brand played for a winning team. I’d love to see whether he’s a real winner, or just another Shareef Abdur-Rahim aka “Poor Team, Big Stat” guy.


7. Miami Heat

Depth Chart:
PG: Marcus Banks / Mario Chambers (r) / Chris Quinn / Jason Richards
SG: Dwyane Wade / Daequan Cook / Yakhouba Diawara
SF: Shawn Marion / James Jones / Dorell Wright
PF: Michael Beasley (r) / Stephane Lasme
C: Udonis Haslem / Mark Blount / Jamaal Magloire / Joel Anthony / David Padgett

Comments:
There’s no doubt that they intentionally tanked last season to grab Derrick Rose in the draft, only lost the lottery to the Bulls. Thanks goodness that there’s still justice in the world! However the Heat still managed to get #2 pick and draft the talented Michael Beasley. And they stole PG Mario Chambers in the second round. Sigh, maybe the world is not that fair after all. We have seen the Wade 4.0 in the Olympics, after he mailed in the entire 2007-2008 season. It will not be a surprise if the Heat have a dramatic turnaround this season. In fact, I think I might have put them too low at #7. With Wade and Matrix running the team, they have Beasley to score down low and James Jones to shoot the 3. They will be ideal to go small by playing Matrix at PF and Haslem/Beasley at C, while they can also go big by playing Matrix at SF, Haslem/Beasley at PF and Magloire/Blount at C. The PG job will be a joint effort of Banks, Chambers and Quinn. Anyway, what they lack is a legit center. Using Haslem at C is not a long term solution, but it doesn’t seem like Magloire has anything in the tank to be a full time starter anymore. And we all know how inconsistent Blount is. If they can make some deals to get a solid C, you know, someone like Chris Kaman or Samuel Dalembert, that would be awesome. Yes, the expiry contract of Marion is something to work on.

Players to watch:
Michael Beasley.
Though he’s officially listed as 6’10”, people say he’s more close to 6’8”. Viewed as the most talented rookie this year, he has a very versatile game and can score both inside and outside. Is he a legit 20-10 guy? Could he win the ROY?


8. Washington Wizards

Depth Chart:
PG: Gilbert Arenas (inj) / Antonio Daniels / Juan Dixon
SG: DeShawn Stevenson / Nick Young
SF: Caron Butler / Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison / Darius Songaila / Oleksiy Pecherov / JaVale McGee (r)
C: Etan Thomas / Andray Blatche / Brandan Haywood (inj)

Comments:
On paper, Agent Zero + Caron Butler + Jamison is a talented trio. You can’t expect them to miss the playoffs. But you guys should know that guys like Arenas and Stevenson and teams like Wizards are not exactly my type. I repeat, last season’s Wizards, who finished #5 in the East, was a better team than the 06-07 one because of the absence of Arenas. Agent Zero dominates the ball too much and is too self-absorbed. He has really limited the production of his teammates, most notably Butler and Jamison, and hindered ball movement. This, however, doesn’t help the team to be better defensively. Anyway, Arenas had his 3rd knee surgery and will be out for at least a month. That might help the team during his absence because of the reasons mentioned above, however, it may cause serious chemistry problem when Arenas is back later in the season. The Wizards then will have to adjust in order to work him back to the rotation. Without a training camp to do so, it can be disastrous, even though Arenas is well loved by his teammate. And did I say that the team is a worse team with Arenas?

Players to watch:
Nick Young.
A promising and athletic rookie who may be better than Stevenson and one day take over the starting SG position.


9. Chicago Bulls

Depth Chart:
PG: Derrick Rose (r) / Kirk Hinrich
SG: Ben Gordon / Larry Hughes / Thabo Sefolosha / Demetris Nichols
SF: Luol Deng / Andres Nocioni
PF: Drew Gooden / Tyrus Thomas / Cedric Simmons
C: Joakim Noah / Aaron Gray

Comments:
Good news is, they re-signed their best player Luol Deng. Bad news is, it’s not cheap (6-year $71m). Good new is, they re-signed their leading scorer Ben Gordon. Bad news is, it’s a 1-year deal, which will make BG an unrestricted free agent next summer. That is one of the worst case scenario happened, as discussed in my previous mail. OK, they have some logjam at the backcourt following the drafting of Derrick Rose, and they should have got rid of some of the guards. Instead they chose to re-sign BG to a 1-year deal? Knowing that the Bulls don’t want to pay him, expect BG to focus on piling up stats and getting a fatty contract this summer. I can smell some serious chemistry issue in the team, especially between BG and players like Hinrich and Luol Deng who had signed lengthy contracts. Adding a rookie coach Vinny Del Negro, it’s entirely possible to have a chaotic locker room which would lead to yet another disappointing season for the somewhat talented team. They still have many issues, from scoring to defense to chemistry to intensity, which I do not expect rookie coach Vinny Del Negro to fix them all immediately.

Players to watch:
Derrick Rose.
Home town kid. Tons of expectation. John Chow’s favorite. His role somehow overlaps with that of Kirk Hinrich, but due to his status, expect the Bulls to start Rose at PG and shift Hinrich to SG or even the bench. It would be a feel good story to tell if the #1 pick Rose could lead the malfunctioned team to an improbable turnaround season. But I’m more on a pessimistic side.


10. Atlanta Hawks

Depth Chart:
PG: Mike Bibby / Speedy Claxton / Acie Law
SG: Joe Johnson / Flip Murray / Thomas Gardner
SF: Marvin Williams / Maurice Evans
PF: Josh Smith / Solomon Jones / Othello Hunter (r)
C: Al Horford / Zaza Pachulia / Randolph Morris

Comments:
Everybody loves underdogs and everybody loved the Hawks in the playoffs. Sure, against the Celtics, they played with hustle and heart, managed to extend the series to 7 games. I think it reflects the unreadiness of the Cs more than the strength of the Hawks. After all, they were a 37-win team. Granted, Bibby just joined in February 2008, but the record after the acquisition did not quite stand out. Again, I will give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Josh Childress will be deeply missed. Although the team has a decent starting lineup, but Childress was one of the major reasons why the Hawks managed to beat the Celtics 3 times in the series. With Bibby, JJ, Marvin, Josh and Horford, the starting roster has a good mix of experience, ball handling, scoring, athleticism, rebounding and defense. But the problem is, now that Childress is gone, they don’t have any depth at all. In addition, Horford is good but he’s undersized at C. He’s so young and promising, it’s not a good idea to exhaust him playing center. With the improved competitors, expect the Hawks to go back to the lottery again this year.

Player to watch:
Marvin Williams.
With the departure of Childress, Marvin Williams will assume a full time role at SF. No more bail-out by Childress, Marv must prove that the Hawks made the right decision to pick him ahead of CP3 and D-Will. (But I seriously doubt it.) Words from the Atlanta side are that MW has shown substantial improvement this summer and this should be his break-out year. We will see.


11. Charlotte Bobcats

Depth Chart:
PG: Raymond Felton / DJ Augustin (r)
SG: Jason Richardson / Matt Carroll / Shannon Brown
SF: Gerald Wallace / Adam Morrison
PF: Emeka Okafor / Sean May / Jermareo Davidson
C: Nazr Mohammad / Ryan Hollins / Alexis Ajinca (r)

Comments:
Granted, there’s just a very slim chance that the Bobcats could make the playoffs. But since this is my work I have the liberty to include anything I want. Ha ha. I am not saying that the Bobcats are my dark horse pick. I just think that they are a talented team on paper. They have a bona fide star in Gerald Wallace, and they have J-Rich who can flat out score, and they have Okafor to do the dirty works. Felton, Matt Carroll and Sean May are all decent players. That’s “on paper”. They did not play well last season. They were not able to show their “on paper” talent last year as they were hit by injuries, in particular that of GW. So if they can somehow miraculously resolve the injury issue, the wildcard is the coach. We all know what Larry Brown can do. If Larry Brown is the same old LB who took his teams to make big turnaround, the Bobcats will go to the playoffs. Otherwise, if he is the same Larry Brown who coached the Knicks two years ago, then he may feud with GM Michael Jordan, trash his players in front of the media, create all the noises and drama and this season would be a long and disastrous one for the young team.

Players to watch:
Adam Morrison.
#3 pick of the 2006 Draft. Set back by injury last season. Time for redemption. Or bust.