San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets, Sat, Nov 29 2008.

Scouting report - San Antonio Spurs

Offense:

• Tony Parker started the first time after coming back from ankle injury. His stat, 15 pts and 7 ast, is not bad but he seemed like half step slow. Instead of relentlessly driving the lane, he relied too much on outside jumpers. And when he did penetrate, he generated more missed shots and turnovers than points. His handle is not stable too. The Spurs need him to be 100% to compete.
• Duncan was aggressive posting up the Rockets early on but he was not effective as the Rockets played superb defense against him. He went 1-for-9 FG in 1H. The Spurs began to have better ball movement in 2H and TD was getting easy shots from passes, instead of working iso against the Rockets’ big men. But overall his production was severely hindered by the Rocket defense. He even committed a stupid hand-checking foul on Yao in Q3 after the ball being stripped by Yao. Popovich immediately sat him. That’s a cool act by Pop. TD finished 17 pts and 9 reb, clearly not his best.
• Manu Ginobili is the real energy guy. Early on, whenever he checked in, he would give a big boost to the team. He could always find some ways to score for the team, either by a penetration layup, a long range J, drawing fouls or a nice dime to teammate for an open shot. But the Rockets clamped him down in 2H, and their D was so good that Ginobili was ineffective in their pivotal Q4 run.
• Roger Mason is their most reliable shooter, hitting a few mid-range J.
• Matt Bonner is no white stiff. He is quite a smart player. He kept the game close in Q2 and Q3 by hitting a number of 3s.
• All of Michael Finley, George Hill, Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka and Anthony Tolliver were off and shot horribly. They combined to shoot 6-for-27 FG.
• Basically, no matter how Popovich changed their game plan, the Spurs could never get away with the Rockets’ suffocating defense.

Defense:

• Very bad perimeter defense by the Spurs. Just a couple of ball rotation or a simple screen and the Rockets got all the wide open looks they like. Alternatively, after a few crossovers or passes, the Rockets would get a clear path to the paint for easy scores. The Spurs’ perimeter defense was slowed in rotation, overreacted to penetration by collapsing to the paint, thereby leaving the perimeter wide open. Even Rafer Alston looked like a sharp shooter against them.
• At the front court, Oberto failed miserably to guard Luis Scola. Even Duncan was slow to rotate defensively, leaving Artest and Yao to fire and hit the mid range J.
• The Spurs later changed to more pressurized defense and really roughed up the Rockets in the paint. That’s at least more effective than the slow-footed, half-hearted defense rotation. And it has really disrupted the rhythm of the Rockets. They managed to cut the 19-point deficit to 7-points at the half.
• In the 2H, after the Spurs narrowed the deficit to just 5 pts, their defense relaxed a bit. The Rockets immediately took the opportunity to score. The Rockets were at least a step ahead of the Spurs, and the Spurs failed to stop them at all. Aaron Brooks and Battier took turn to score on easy baskets.
• Several defense breakdown, and a couple of TOs by the Spurs, and just like that, the game was blown open to 17-pt early in Q4. The game was over with over 6 mins left in the game when the Rockets was leading by 19 pts.

Conclusion:

• Overall, the Rockets took advantage of the pathethically poor perimeter defense of the Spurs by repeatedly scoring outside or penetrating inside. This is probably the worst defense I have ever seen the Spurs play in years. On the other hand the Rockets played terrific defense in the paint, in particular in both slowing down Duncan and creating TOs.
• TP is obviously not ready, and he relied too much on his J.
• Manu was ineffective tonight under the tough D of Artest and Battier. He was not able to take the ball to the rim.
• Bruce Bowen no longer can guard elite wing players like he used to be, and he’s absence in offense.
• George Hill is awful, at least for this game. He failed to make the open Js, forced shots and repeated got beaten by the opponent guards like Aaron Brooks and Luther Head.
• Finley was completely abused on the defensive end, as the Rockets guards took turn to blow past him and score. And he didn’t make enough baskets to justify his presence on court.
• Matt Bonner is a reliable big man who can hit 3s. He’s quite slow, but at least he set good screen and box out, and he can his 3s.
• Last but not least, Pop really looks like a fugitive, uncombed hair and long beard.
• To say the Spurs play worse defense than they should is an understatement. The Spurs used to own one of the best defense in the league. But right now, they were not even playing acceptable defense, their D is completely atrocious. Their offense was bad, fine. They have never been built on offense anyway, and we have seen some fearless scoring by the newcomers like George Hill and Roger Mason which should help to compensate the decreasing production from Finley and Bowen in the long run. But defense is their bread and butter. Unless and until they could play their top notch defense, there’s no way that the Spurs could get past the first round of the playoffs this year.

LA Lakers @ Phoenix Suns, Thu, Nov 20, 2008

A reunion of Kobe, Shaq and the Zen Master. How could you miss it? Here's my running diary of the game:

First Quarter:

• Right out of the gate, the Suns decided to run, reminiscence of their old “ seven seconds or less” offense, and hitting 3s too. Raja Bell is hot.
• They were playing good defense on Kobe too. So far. I like their improved defense under Terry Porter.
• Amare’s mid-range Js are deadeye, almost automatic.
• A nice lob pass by Nash to Amare for a nice layup. And-1. 24-18 Suns. Timeout Lakers.
• Nash sat down, and immediately the offense stalled.
• Odom and Ariza led the 2nd unit to spark a 8-0 run and ended up leading 26-24 at the end of Q1
• Just noticed Phil Jax shaved all his beard and mustache. He looks young. As for Terry Porter, I haven’t seen him shown any expression on his face yet. Perfect poker face.

Second Quarter:

• now 2nd unit vs. 2nd unit. Diaw looks great, just had a great low post move and scored past Bynum, and on next possession a nice inside-out pass to Singletary for a wide open 3
• Grant Hill is still active. He made a driving layup and fouled. And-1. 34-33 Lakers.
• the defense by Lakers is good, a huge improvement from last year. They double team Shaq, are fast in rotation, pressurize the ball, forcing the Suns to commit TOs and shoot tough outside shots. Just like that, the Lakers pulled off a 46-39 lead with 2:30 to go. Timeout Suns.
• Shaq attack! He made a nice spin move and scored a layup over Gasol and fouled. And he made the FT!
• Kobe made a beautiful layup, then the Suns threw a touchdown pass to Grant Hill in the Lakers’ paint. Surrounded by 3 defenders, he pulled up for a tough shot at the buzzer, lots of contacts, missed but no whistle.
• Lakers leading 50-44 at the half.

Half Time:

• It's a TNT game. I should be able to watch the half time report by Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Ernie Johnson in the States. Too bad ESPN Star didn't show that here. So I ended up going to cook my lunch during half time.
  
• There are many suspicious non-calls. Many times the Suns players were obviously fouled but were not called. Isn’t there something called home court advantage?
• Nash hasn’t scored in the entire half. 0-3 FG. He had 7 ast though.

Third Quarter

• Terry Porter decided to focus the offense on Shaq, kept on dumping the rock to him in low post against Bynum. Shaq generated 5 pts and 1 ast to Matt Barnes in the first 3 min of action. Not bad.
• But the problem is Bynum and Kobe are also heating up., combining 9 pts.
• Another 3 by Radmanovic. He’s so far 4-4 from beyond the arc.
• Lakers’ D basically prevented the Suns to score in the paint, and the Suns are not connecting on the perimeter. Lakers by 12, 66-54. Timeout Suns.
• Finally Nash scored on a layup.
• Radmanovic hit ANOTHER 3. Now 5-5. Surreal.
• OK, Nash is getting more aggressive. He hit another floater.
• After Q3, Lakers led 80-67.

Fourth Quarter

• Actually the defense of the Lakers’ 2nd unit is even more impressive. They were all over the Suns on the wing, forcing a few TOs.
• Trevor Ariza is just phenomenal. Driving and hitting Js. I love this guy.
• 3-pter by Odom. 89-71. Lakers. Timeout Suns. The Suns have serious trouble stopping the Lakers. Doesn’t look good.
• 4.37 to go and trailing 81-96. the Suns is sitting Amare and Nash. What? I know they need to rest, but time is running short. Are they giving up?
• Matt Barnes had back problem, he’s wrapping an ice pack behind his back and they let him play like that! Ridiculously comical.
• OK, maybe the Refs don’t want to embarrass the game, they finally let Barnes go back to the locker room.
• 3.45 to go, the Lakers are getting their starters out. Game over.
• Some last effort by Grant Hill to pull within 10 pts with 2 mins to go. But nah they won’t get any closer.
• Got a chance to look at the rookie PG, Dragic. Well he got a good handle, but he looks lost, doesn’t have a clue where his teammates are, or where he’s going with the ball. His J is off too. Exactly how good this guy is? I wonder.

FINAL: Lakers 105-92 Suns

• Hate to say that, but the Lakers are better than the Suns on both offense and defense. The Lakers have way more offensive weapons than the Suns, and they have superior defense than the Suns. Kobe got so many help that he’s just cruising, almost effortlessly. On top of that, they have a deep bench with two elite players, Odom and Ariza who could start for any other team, not to mention the solid Vujacic and Farmar.
• Nash proved that his effectiveness is much lower playing at a slow pace. While Shaq has been impressive reviving his career and Amare being unstoppable, they don’t have enough wing players to beat the elite teams. Matt Barnes is solid but not good enough, though he can shoot some 3s.
• With the Amare-Shaq duo, the Suns should be able to go to the playoffs but unlikely to survive past 2nd round.
• However, the way the Lakers play, they look like the best team in the league. (Yike! I said such thing again! Hate that.) The only weakness about the Lakers is that they remain to be relatively soft. Big men Bynum and Gasol are not the tough guys that can intimidate opponents, that’s one big difference between the Celtics and the Lakers.

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls, 15 Nov 2008

Pacers 91 Chicago 104

Scouting report:

The Bulls:

- Derrick Rose is the man. Can’t believe he’s just a rookie. His decision making is terrific. He has a super quick first step, was aggressive driving to the basket (and finished either hand), while also effective dishing out the ball to teammates. Never over-dribble or over-handle. The most impressive possession is this: while he’s on the right wing, guarded by T.J. Ford. He made a perfect left-to-right crossover to shake off Ford, driving towards the lane, and then dished a perfect alley-oop lob to Joakim Noah for slam dunk. And-1. That’s sportscenter highlight worthy. On another stretch at Q3, he hit back-to-back 3-pters to pull away. This has really ignited the stadium. Everybody in the United Center went crazy, and I was also yelling and waving my hands in my couch . To finish things with a high note, he made a two-handed fashbreak slam dunk in Q4. His major weakness is his defense, and the somewhat streaky Js. It is not like he can shoot back-to-back 3s on any given night. But ROY? No doubt. At least so far.

- Nocioni is the second best player in the team. He hit most of his shots (9-13 FG, 20 pts), grabbed a lot of rebounds and was aggressive on both ends, bullying around in the paint. He hit a clutch 3 too.

- Luol Deng played extremely selfishly, seldom gave up the ball, and whenever he got the ball, he would drive hard, but always forced shots. If lucky he would get fouled and shoot the FTs, but most of the time it ended up as misses. I was surprised because I didn’t recall he was such a selfish player. Maybe he thinks he’s a superstar now after signing the fatty contract. Sigh.

- FA-to-be Ben Gordon shot a lot and did nothing else. He did help to score some big baskets in 2H though. But clearly he had absolutely no chemistry with teammates. Yup, this is their leading scorer.

- Noah played hard and hustled, but he basically has no skills at all.

- Gooden played ok as a role player but need to improve his D.

- Tyrus Thomas was completely useless, even white stiff Aaron Gray is better than him as a backup big man.

- Hughes’ shots were way off, even worse than mine. He tried to draw fouls and score on FT instead, but his offense is really limited. He recorded 3 steals but in general not an effective defender.

- Overall, the Bulls didn't look like a well coached team. Seldom offense plays were drawn and the defense was just so-so. It’s just the brilliance of Rose and the toughness of Nocioni won the game for them.


The Pacers:

- This is the first time I saw them play in almost a year. I’d say they are better than I expected but not at all an elite team. In general, they are just like any other Jim O’Brien’s team: defense and 3-pters. They played good defense, and most of the time played half court offense. They relied on ball rotation to find open man for perimeter shooting, esp. 3-pters by Granger, Troy Murphy and Jarrett Jack. Not that fun to watch but you can see they are well trained and played under control.

- PG T.J. Ford (16 pts) is still very quick. For sure he can score and finish the basket, but he’s not a good playmaker and his shots were a bit off (7-18 FG). The thing I don’t like is that he likes dribbling and dribbling and dribbling. He dominated the ball too much that the ball movement of the Pacers was stalled. Another problem is his poor D. It’s embarrassing watching rookie Rose burning Ford time and time again.

- Danny Granger (15 pts) is a star in the making. He is ultra athletic and play with energy and intelligence. His J in particular impressed me the most, cuz I never recalled that he can shoot in the past. He played earnest defense and was actively running around the court on both ends. He’s not Shawn Marion though, he doesn’t dominate the board like the Matrix and he doesn’t have that crazy athleticism that once the Matrix possessed. He’s more like a Richard Jefferson type, only is quicker.

- Marquis Daniels (13 pts) is another good role swinger. He will never be a star but he can shoot Js and he’s quick.

- Troy Murphy (12 pts) shot and missed too many perimeter Js but he did his job on rebounds (13 reb).

- Nesterovic is surprisingly effective, esp. against the so-so Bulls big men. 12 pts on 6-13 FG and 12 reb. He has a knack on passing too. I think he should go back to San Antonio and play for Greg Pop.

- Jeff Foster’s game has deteriorated a lot. In the past he relied mostly on hustles and hard work to earn his job. Now at 31 and after the injury, it seems like he no longer can be that effective.

- I think the Pacers are better than last year but they are far from a playoffs-bound team. They need at least 1 more solid scorer at the wing (Daniels should be off the bench), a strong rebounder at PF/C (Murphy or Foster off the bench) and to trade T.J. Ford for a pass-first PG.

Ranking my favorite NBA players by position

Just for fun, I'm ranking my favorite current NBA players by position. Note that this is a strict personal preference and may or may not be related to the players' performance.


Point Guard

1. Jason Kidd, Mavericks

If you know me well, you should have guessed it without a doubt. Mr. Triple-Double, excels on both ends, and a pure PG. Alright, he's 35, and has lost at least a step since the knee surgery and he's never been a good shooter. But who can be more exciting to watch at fastbreaks? Plus, he's the first PG that I have been closely following since his rookie season, and his unique size and rebounding power coupled with his superb court vision and the ability to throw flashy alley-oops has intrigued me for years. And remember the turnaround of the Nets in 2001-2002 season? Yes, history and sentimental reason counts.

2. Steve Nash, Suns

Mr. Nice Guy, grand representative of our beloved B.C. Again, a traditional pure PG, who focuses on passing, and when needed, he could drain his deadeye 3s. A year-after-year 90% FT shooter. He is the very reason why the Suns is so exciting and entertaining. Who doesn't love the Suns? What else do you want? I rank him below Kidd simply because he is not as good in defense (which I put much emphasis) than Kidd. But in fact his defense is underrated.

3. Jose Calderon, Raptors

I started to love him when he was with my fantasy team last year. Great stats, seldom makes mistakes, and is as reliable as a Toyota. I love his stable and no-nonsense approach. Nothing flashy, but just an extremely effective guard. The problem is, he does not have the star power to be an all-star. At least not yet. Give him one or two more years, and we will be talking about one of the greatest PGs ever in Toronto. Oh, did I mention the Canada-connection counts? Yes, I'm a Raptor fan too.

4. Chris Paul, Hornets

Everybody loves CP3. He can score, dish and attack the basket. He is the best PG in the league and nobody could argue. He is the major reason of the success of the Hornets right now. But somehow I never sit comfortably about his flashy plays. And from my point of view, he always looks for scoring first than passing. And he has an ugly jersey.

5. Tony Parker, Spurs

As a scoring PG, he's never my preferred PG. But he is a Spur, and that says it all.


Shooting Guard

1. Manu Ginobili, Spurs

OK, he's a Spur. Period. Plus, he is one of the most exciting players to watch. He is so clutch that he always plays his best in the playoffs or elimination games. His ability to play point is another big factor. He is very versatile, shooting, slashing, passing, defending, stealing, and yes, flopping. His resume for his country Argentina is even more impressive. Did I mention that he won both the NBA Championship (3 times) and the Olympic Gold Medal? You got me.

2. Joe Johnson, Hawks

JJ is the guy who can play at 1, 2, and 3. He can effectively run offense as PG and he is one of the most versatile scorers in the league. He was already a high profile talent when he was in Phoenix, but he really excelled after he joined Atlanta, piling up impressive stats. His ability to hit clutch shots was never mentioned by the press. Oh, disclosure of interest: I have had him in my fantasy team for two consecutive years. The only short fall is his relatively weak defense. Also, I criticized him severly when he chose to go to Atlanta for more money and bigger role, instead of staying in Phoenix and win a title or two with Nash.

3. Ray Allen

Jesus Shuttleworth. Love his smooth-as-silk shooting. Love his ability to finish the basket. He has one of the quickest release in the league. Yes, he is poor in defense. But he's been a star since "He Got Game" and he still has the ability to throw down 30 pts any given night. Yes, he has regressed somewhat nowadays. I pick him largely due to historical reason. But he will always be Jesus Shuttleworth in my mind.

4. Anthony Parker

One of the most underrated players in the league. He is a poor man's Ginobili. He can shoot, pass, slash, and he is one of the best defensive SG in the league. You won't be awed by his plays, but this guy is athletic and hustles all the time. He's the unsung hero of the Raptors, though his stats never show. BTW, I had him in my fantasy game two years ago as a sleeper.

5. Dwyane Wade

He is simply unstoppable. He won the 2006 Championship for the Heat, not Shaq. Granted, he faked fouls in order to go to the line, but every time he drives the line, almost for certain he will either get points or go to the FT line. Plus, he is alsy OK on offense. And he was simply the best player in the 2008 Olympic team.


Small Forward

1. Caron Butler, Wizards

He's a low profile player who could do it all. He plays hard every game. I seldom like wing players but if I have to pick, Butler is the man. Too bad he always plays under the shadow of Agent Zero. I believe he would have been a bigger star had he joined other teams.

2. Shane Battier

Talking about no-nonsense, meet Mr. No-Nonsense. Normally I don't like Duke products, but thi guy is just the perfect glue guy. He is tough and a top notch defender. He never complains about anything: starting or not, give up offnse in order to focus on defense, you name it. He is actually more important to the Rockets than any of T-Mac, Yao or Artest.

3. Richard Jefferson

I started to like him when I was closely following the Nets back in 2001. Yes, the year J-Kidd moved to NJ. RJ is also a versatile wing who is athletic, can drive and shoot, and plays earnest defense. He is an unselfish player who can score when needed. His passing skill is underrated. Of course, he has benefited greatly by playing along with J-Kidd during his first 7 years of his career. Things have never been the same since the departure of Kidd and now RJ is in Milwaukee. But he plays hard and never mail in any games.

4. Gerald Wallace

Talking about filling the stat sheet, he's just a poor man's Matrix. This guy is fearless and always plays it all out each game. That's why he often gets injured (concussions). But he is a rare talent that he can score while at the same time grab a lot of rebound and makes a lot of steals and blocks. The only problem is he is not a scorer, and I doubt he will be an All-Star. Well, he's never played meaningful minutes for a title contender, he's still too early to judge him on that.

5. LeBron James

Nobody questions his talent and potential. At 6'8" and 250 lb, he is a combination of power and speed. He is bascially unstoppable one-on-one and then he has the PG's vision. He will likely go for triple double for the season. Watching him play is an enjoyable experience. But you guys should know why I hate him. He speaks too much, and always wants to be a prima donna. Vowing to be a global icon, vowing to average 22-10-10, openly flirting with Nets' co-owner Jay Z, wearing Yankee hats to attend an Indians' playoffs home game against the Yankees, all the hype...


Power Forward

1. Tim Duncan

4 championships, 2 times MVP, 3 times Finals MVP, 4 rings, 1 time All-Star MVP, 10 times All-Star, 11 times All-NBA, 11 times All-Defense Team, Rookie of the Year, Naismith Player of the Year (college), Mr. Fundamental, Mr. Low Key, genuine team leader. Anything you want to add?
2. Kevin Garnett

I didn't like KG in the past, simply because I'm a TD fan. But nobody could deny KG's good spirit, his intensity, his talent and his competitiveness. It was entirely Kevin McHale's fault for not being able to gather enough talents to help KG in Minny. Dare I say going to Boston is the best move of McHale for KG. OK, KG is not clutch, it's a gone conclusion. The Celtics got PP and Ray Allen to play at clutch time and KG could simply defer to the second best man role, a perfect role for him. Love his defense and his leadership. You will never find another player who is more enthusiastic and energetic than Da Kid.

3. Chris Bosh

I've watched him play in person in Toronto back in 2005. I was immediately impressed by his good footwork and overall fundamentals. He is soft but he is no doubt very competitive. An extremely skilled player that can score when given the chance. Defense is not first class but by no mean bad.

4. David West

West used to be an underrated player but now that the Hornets are in such a high profile, David West is no longer underrated. Still, he is a workhorse. He was widely unnoticed when he entered the league, but he worked his butt off to achieve such a status in the league. He has good body balance and can score anywhere within 20 ft. He is not physically gifted, but he continues to be a 20-10 threat any given night. Of course, he's benefited from playing with CP3, but nobody should ignore or deny his effort.

5. Josh Smith

Josh Smith is an amazing talent. He is probably the most athletic PF in the league. He is tall, long, quick and strong. Granted, his skills are limited, esp. scoring. His defense is beautiful to watch (can you imagine defense can be beautiful to watch?) and he is a team player. It is hard to find such kind of unselfishness in the young guns.


Center

1. Yao Ming

Who doesn't love Yao? He is tall, strong, talented, and he has good character. His hook shots are becoming also unguardable nowadays, and he shoots FTs well. Extremely unselfish, even to a point that the teammates have to beg him to be more selfish. Although his defense is questionable, nobody will not be scared when driving the lane to meet him. Oh, and yes, he is by far the best Chinese player playing in the NBA ever.

2. Dwight Howard

Another good character guy. Super funny and playful. The Superman Dunk is already a classic. I met him in Macau during the preseason game and he was very nice to all us fans. Love him! But when he's on the court, he dominates. He is strong and powerful. His two weknesses? FT and defense. Watched him getting burnt time after time during the Olympics. When he could master those two areas, he will be truly unstoppable.

3. Tysan Chandler

He had a stormy start of his career after being drafted stright out of high school. Leaving Chicago turned out to be the best move for him. He immidately transformed into a defense specialist a la Camby since coming to New Orleans. And his scoring is up too, thanks to all the alley-oop passes from CP3. But he is in general a nice guy and work hard. He will never be remembered as one of the great centers, but nonetheless fits in perfectly for the young Hornets team.

4. Al Horford

As an undersized rookie, Horford played tough and alomost averaged a double-double last year. He is still learning his game but you know this guy will be a work horse sooner rather than later. While big men normally requires more time to mature, I am waiting for him to get used to the pro league and gradually develop his offensive skills. He would, of course, be better off to play at PF though.

5. Chris Kaman

Hulk Hogan Jr? People always recall his strange haircut or his fierce outlook, or even he "deflection" to Germany, but they seldom talk about his game. He is one of those rare true low post centers. He rebounds and blocks shots like crazy, but he can also flat out score. His is actually very entertaining to watch. I wish some elite teams could get him out of the Clippers purgatory.

President Obama

Are we all thrilled that the new president elect of the US is a baller?

Long Live Basketball!

Iverson going to Mo-town

ESPN reports:

The Pistons and the Denver Nuggets have finalized a trade that sends guard Allen Iverson to Detroit in exchange for Pistons mainstays Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess.

Young center Cheikh Samb, selected by the Los Angeles Lakers for the Pistons with the 51st overall pick in the 2006 draft, will also be going to Denver in the deal.

My view:

It's a bold move by Joe Dumars. He vowed to make changes after their defeat to the Celtics in the 2008 Playoffs, and he just walked the talk.

OK, the deal would bring in a bona fide superstar, which the team has been lacking since don't know when. But that's just an excuse. The main reason for the deal is, by dealing away Billups, they are getting rid of his 4-year $50 million contract. Iverson's contract (and Rasheed Wallace's too) will expire this year, which will bring them heavily under the cap next summer. They may choose to upgrade its roster next summer, or try their luck to hit the jackpot in the mega free agency in 2010, which features LBJ, Wade, Bosh, etc.

Dumars' plan is to gradually rebuild this team by developing PG Rodney Stuckey, PF Amir Johnson and PF Jason Maxiell. And if they could get one or two superstar in '09 or '10 free agency, they will once again rule the East.

However, there are considerable risks.

First trading away Billups, their starting PG, for a undersized SG may have a detrimental effect on team chemistry, not to mention that Iverson is a ball hog while this team's forte is their teamwork. And how would Iverson react to the deal remains unknown, especially knowing that he will almost certainly won't be staying in Detroit after this season. Did I mention that Iverson has been a problem child in the past? What would the team featuring Iverson and 'Sheed be? I'm just curious.

Secondly, Iverson has never been a good PG, and probably never will be. I understand that Dumars has great faith in sophomore PG Rodney Stuckey, but is he up to the challenge? No matter how talented he is, as a sophomore, he represents considerable risk. It is never a sure thing that he could be developed into a legitimate PG.

Iverson will provide some scoring to the team, but I'm expecting a step back for the Pistons this season after the trade. Whether the deal can pay out in the long run, it depends on (1) the development of the young core of Stuckey, Amir Johnson and Maxiell; and (2) the luck of nabbing any superstar free agents in '09 and '10.

As for the Nuggets, I genuinely consider them as the clear winner of this deal.

First is addressing need. They have enough scoring in JR Smith and 'Melo Anthony, and they need a legit PG to run the offense and to share the ball. Billups fits in admirably. Hey, they don't have to start Anthony Carter at PG, isn't that great?

Secondly, Billups arguably is a better player. Iverson no doubt is a superstar and a great great talent. But if you were a GM or a coach, would you rather have Billups or Iverson at your team? Yes, you got it.

Thirdly, by trading away Iverson, they can free up the offense for J.R. Smith (which was recently re-signed) and their franchise player, Carmelo Anthony.

Although the deal makes sense basketball-wise for the Nuggets, it does not fit their cost-saving mode. They traded away Camby almost for free in order to dump salary, now they are taking up the 4-year contract of Billups? Alright, Billups is earning less money than Iverson this season, but Iverson's contract will end this season. I had expected them to let Iverson play out his contract and walk in the past.

With a tight budget and by not addressing their need in the frontcourt (K-Mart and Nene do not look like they can play anything more than 70 games a season), I don't see the upgrade from Iverson to Billups can push them to become one of the best teams in the West. So why not stick to the original rebuilding plan and let the team go to lottery for a couple of years?

Maybe what the Nuggets need is just to squeeze into the playoffs, get a few more games played in Denver so that they can earn a little bit more ticket sales.

NBA season 2008-2009 Part II

Here you go. Again, only playoffs bound teams are included.

WEST

1. LA Lakers

Depth Chart:
PG: Derek Fisher / Jordon Farmar
SG: Kobe Bryant / Sasha Vujacic / Sun Yue
SF: Lamar Odom / Luke Walton / Trevor Ariza
PF: Pau Gasol / Vladimir Radmanovic / Brian Cook
C: Andrew Bynum / Chris Mihm

Comments:
Last year, they stormed through the highly competitive Western Conference to advance to the Finals. Pinned by many (including yours truly) as the heavy favorite to win it all, they eventually were badly defeated. Mental breakdown, defense failure, they were out-hustled and out-played by the Celtics in the Finals. Now, no matter what happened last year, with Andrew Bynum back, they remain the clear favorite to win it all this season. They have arguably the most talented roster in the league, and they are deep. I don’t see much problem playing Gasol and Bynum together as Gasol has the range to play outside the paint or in the high post while Bynum will spend most of the time in the low post. After getting much acclaims with his service for the national team in Beijing, Kobe should have satisfied his own ego, keep his mouth shut and be a good teammate. That is, until things turn bad. Odom disappeared in the Finals and despite his talent, remains their weakest link. I genuinely believe that they should move Odom while his value is still high. Phil Jackson is thinking about starting the athletic Arizato and playing Odom off the bench as 6th man, to create a big mismatch for the other team’s bench players. I think that’s a brilliant idea, only if Odom can forget his ego and fully submerge into Zen Master’s game plan.

Players to watch:
Andrew Bynum.
Too many questions: is he 100% recovered? How durable is he? Can he play defense? Most importantly, is he as good as everyone thinks? After all, he’s just played 35 games last season, his so-called “break out” season. Sure he got talent, but can he be productive on a long term basis? He’s the difference between a champion and a contender.


2. New Orleans Hornets

Depth Chart:
PG: Chris Paul / Mike James
SG: Morris Peterson / Rasual Butler / Devin Brown
SF: Peja Stojakovic / James Posey / Julian Wright
PF: David West / Melvin Ely / Ryan Bowen
C: Tyson Chandler / Hilton Armstrong

Comments:
Other than the Lakers, there is not a clear frontrunner in the West. You can put the Spurs here, or the Rockets, or the Jazz. The Hornets has arguably one of the most complete (starting) lineups in the West. Their three stars, CP3, D-West and Chandler, are one year older and should be one year wiser and better. The health of Peja again will be the critical factor for their success, simply because they have no other reliable shooters. Their weakness is at SG, since neither MoPete or Butler can scare anyone. But their main problem is bench. They will definitely miss backup G Pargo, who had some heroic moments in the playoffs. Mike James is not exactly as reliable or as unselfish as Pargo. As for the depth at swingmen, they tried to address such issue by signing G/F James Posey using the entire mid-cap exception. For sure Posey is an excellent role player who played a significant role in the Heat’s and Celtics’ championship runs. He will provide veteran leadership to the team. But at the age of 31, I’m just not sure that the price is right (4-year $24 million). Overall not much improvement from last season but the maturity of the players is already good enough. We need to see if Byron Scott is the coach that can bring them to another level.

Players to watch:
Chris Paul.
C’mon, man! Who else? Can he challenge LBJ to be the MVP?


3. San Antonio Spurs

Depth Chart:
PG: Tony Parker / Jacque Vaughn
SG: Manu Ginobili / Michael Finley / Roger Mason
SF: Bruce Bowen / Ime Udoka
PF: Tim Duncan / Matt Bonner
C: Fabricio Oberto / Kurt Thomas / Ian Mahinmi

Comments:
You guys must be complaining that I have put them too high here. Maybe, but I’m a Spurs fan! Ha ha. The Spurs went to the Conference Finals last season which should warrant me to put them at #2. Only is that the injury of Ginobili made me put them one spot lower. But frankly, do you really think that the Rockets, the Jazz or the Suns could beat this team? Seriously? What do you got here? Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili. Yawn. Yes, it’s the same old team that won the championship in 2007. Or 2005. Or 2003. But they are still at their prime, and to me, there’s simply no better trio in the league. Their problem is outside these three. Bowen, Oberto, Finley, Vaughn, Kurt Thomas and even Udoka are all in their 30s. What makes me uncomfortable, is that it’s a very disappointing off-season as they failed to make any significant improvement or getting any young talents. It’s a not-so-small drawback that 2007 draftee F/C Brazilian Tiago Splitter elected not to join the team and preferred to stay in Spain. Now Manu re-injured his left ankle. Newly signed Roger Mason is not exactly a savior. We saw the Spurs’ defense slipped a bit last season, and given the ageing concern, especially their defense ace Bowen, it’s unlikely that their defense could get any better. All things point to a start of a decline of the Spurs dynasty. Sad but true.

Players to watch:
Manu Ginobili.
Manu became the team’s best player last season, and his ankle injury is the major reason they lost to the Lakers in the WCF. Now he re-injured it in the Olympics and will be out until December. They need him to be 100% in order to remain competitive. Popovich always put Ginobili off the bench to create a mismatch, a tactic which has been very successful in the past. But with Finley now 36, I don’t think they could afford not to start Manu (Roger Mason? Please). This means they will simply lose one of their most lethal weapons.


4. Houston Rockets

Depth Chart:
PG: Rafer Alston / Aaron Brooks / Steve Francis
SG: Tracy McGrady / Luther Head / DJ Strawberry
SF: Ron Artest / Shane Battier / Brent Barry / Mike Harris / Patrick Ewing Jr.
PF: Luis Scola / Chuck Hayes / Carl Landry
C: Yao Ming

Comments:
Once again, the Rockets are the wild card in the West. On paper, the trio of T-Mac, Yao and Artest could compete with any team’s 3 best players. And they have the glue guy in Battier, a high scoring PF in Luis Scola, and some excellent role players in Alston, Luther Head, Brent Barry, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry. But somewhere somehow, the Rockets have always disappointed us. That’s because T-Mac and Yao have never been completely healthy. The Artest gamble is worth it, because T-Mac is not likely to be effective for long due to the chronic back injury. Yao is certainly not Bill Russell-like durable and given his frequent national duty, it’s not likely Yao could stay healthy for long. The window will be soon closing and they need to act now. Artest is not the perfect guy but he can play at SG, SF or even PF, allowing them to play big and small. The ability to play small is very important to the Rockets, considering Yao will likely be out 10-20 games a season. They don’t need Artest to score, something he’s been obsessed with. They got enough scorers in T-Mac, Yao and Scola. They need Artest to play earnest defense and make passes. They have been too soft in the past and Artest can put some toughness to the team. In terms of talent, they can for sure challenge the Lakers. The question is, can Rick Adelman tame Artest?

Players to watch:
Ron Artest.
Enough said. Fingers crossed.


5. Utah Jazz

Depth Chart:
PG: Deron Williams / Brevin Knight / Ronnie Price
SG: Ronnie Brewer / Kyle Korver / Morris Almond
SF: Andrei Kirilenko / Matt Harpring / CJ Miles
PF: Carlos Boozer / Paul Millsap
C: Mehmet Okur / Jarron Collins / Kosta Koufos (r) / Kyrylo Fesenko

Comments:
I have said it in last year’s preview that the Jazz is the team for the future. They finished 5th in this competitive West last year and I expect them to do no worse this season. However, they are far from the best team. Look, D-Will is superb, Boozer is a monster in the paint (offense only), but after that, who else? While you can say the Williams-Boozer tandem is the 21st century’s version of Stockton-to-Malone, they don’t have a Jeff Hornacek, or Bryon Russell, or Mark Eaton. Like the Hornets, their weakest link is at the SG position. Brewer is athletic, defends well, but can’t shoot. Korver shoots well but can’t do anything else. So it is just like pick your poison to start either. If AK47 plays up to his potential, for sure they could be a title contender. But I have had enough about AK47’s inconsistency, after having him in my fantasy team 2 seasons ago. Okur is a serviceable center who can shoot 3s. Alas, he’s at least better than Ostertag for crying out loud! As for their bench, Knight, Korver Harpring and Millsap are solid, but hardly threatening. But as long as Sloan remains as the coach, they will remain competitive and be able to get to at least the second round and be a dark horse to advance to the Conference Finals season after season.

Players to watch:
Andrei Kirilenko.
Frankly, after all these years, I should have no more hope about AK47. Yet his sheer talent always intrigues us. He is so versatile, and has such a long frame, quickness and sharpness that he could stop anyone at SG, SF and PF, so long as he does not fall in love with shooting 3s and whining about not getting enough touch.


6. Phoenix Suns

Depth Chart:
PG: Steve Nash / Goran Dragic (r) / Sean Singletary
SG: Raja Bell / Leandro Barbosa
SF: Grant Hill / Matt Barnes / Alando Tucker
PF: Amare Stoudemire / Boris Diaw
C: Shaquille O’Neal / Robin Lopez (r)

Comments:
Gone are D’Antoni and his running game. New coach Terry Porter is figured to be a more conventional coach, and the team is figured to be more conventional too. Expect Terry Porter to emphasize defense and slow things down. It’s a complete change of identity. In the past, the Suns’ run-n-gun had created a lot of fun and excitement. Despite all the hype, however, such game type, however, has not won them anything. Not even a conference title. While I think Steve Kerr is right to bite the bullet and make change, I’m not quite sure about all his moves. Most controversial, of course is the Shaq acquisition. But don’t blame Steve Kerr on that. First, the Matrix had been causing some unrest in the locker in the past two years as he asked for more touches, and eventually became a locker room poison after New Year when he learnt that the Suns wouldn’t sign any extension. The chemistry was in jeopardy, so he HAD to go. Second, the management’s reluctance to pay was the real cause of the fall of the Suns. They gave up many quality first round picks, and let talents FAs like Joe Johnson go. Now they are getting old and depth has become an issue. Who to blame? They have really wasted the talent of Nash, Marion and Amare. OK, back to Shaq. He changed his focus to rebounding and setting up teammates after coming to Phoenix, and he did that admirably (although T/O-prone). The record actually was not much worse than before the trade. But the question is, are all these “role player” job descriptions worth $20 million a year? Now, if you check, Nash is not at his best with slow-down, half court set; they don’t have enough outside shooters; they don’t have depth at the wing; and without Marion and Kurt Thomas, they have limited post defense. All these things don’t look good to me. I may be wrong. And I hope so.

Players to watch:
Goran Dragic.
Drafted by the Suns in the second round of this year’s draft, the team paid his Spanish club Tau Ceramica some decent money to buy him out, so he must be special. According to scout report, he has good defense and quick hand, more a drive-n-dish PG who likes transition games. His court vision is not outstanding and his jump shots are questionable. Can he be THE apprentice to our Nash?


7. Dallas Mavericks

Depth Chart:
PG: Jason Kidd / Keith McLeod / Jose Juan Barea
SG: Jason Terry / Jerry Stackhouse / Antoine Wright
SF: Josh Howard / Devean George / Gerald Green / James Singleton
PF: Dirk Nowitzki / Brandon Bass
C: Erick Dampier / DaSagana Diop

Comments:
Another team in the decline. Like the Shaq trade, I will give the benefit of the doubt for the Kidd trade for now. I’d like to see how a full season (plus preseason) of Kidd + Dirk would turn out. But the trade has really hurt their depth. They need a solid PG to play 10-12 minutes to back up Kidd but I don’t know whether McLeod or Barea is up to the challenge. They can’t rely on Stackhouse, 33, anymore. His stats have been dropping since he joined the Mavs in 2004, so they need contribution from Antoine Wright and Gerald Green. I like Brandon Bass and Diop, but they have limited offense skills. But most concerning is Josh Howard. He didn’t escalate his game much last season and literally disappeared in the playoffs. Off the court, he admitted the usage of marijuana and then the recent national anthem debacle. He needs to get his mind straight, and has the conscious of being the second best player. I like the hiring of Rick Carlisle because he is a very experienced and resourceful coach who focuses on defense. He is a hard core coach and doesn’t communicate well with his players, but hopefully he could win the players’ respect due to his knowledge and record. There are some speculations that the no-nonsense Carlisle might not get along with the strong willed Kidd. I think it’s ok, at least for the first season. Kidd seldom feuds with the coaches during the first two seasons. I wish the Mavericks could rebound and compete again in the West.

Players to watch:
Jason Kidd.
Yes, Kidd is old, even showed considerable slowness in the Olympics, but he also proved to be a true good floor general that could really calm down the team when things are tight. Now the burden is on him to prove that the Mavs made the right decision to give up Devin Harris for him. How will he react?


8. Portland Trail Blazers

Depth Chart:
PG: Steve Blake / Jerryd Bayless / Sergio Rodriguez
SG: Brandon Roy / Rudy Fernandez
SF: Martell Webster / Travis Outlaw
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Channing Frye
C: Greg Oden / Joel Przybilla / Ike Diogu

Comments:
Welcome to the “Oden Watch” season. This season, everyone will follow closely the development of Greg Oden and make his own view whether he’s better than Durant. But people should not forget about the other Blzers. Roy is an all-star already, and Aldridge has put up decent stats last season. These two, together with Oden, form a solid core. Blake and Webster are more than your normal supporting cast. They are disciplined and play hard. Then you have summer league phenom Bayless and Rudy “in your face D12” Fernandez. This team is deep, as in 2-player deep in each position. Fernandez, Outlaw, Frye and Przybilla can easily start for any team. Plus they are young. Another good thing about them is Coach Macmillan. He is a good teacher for young kids. He teaches them teamwork, discipline and defense. Maybe they are too young to reach the top echelon in the West this year, but give them one or two years, they will soar. Their weakness is low post scoring, as Aldridge likes to shoot the mid-range rather than scoring down low and Przybilla is not exactly a scorer. Oden could fill their need somehow. Expectation is now high and the once quiet Portland is gradually getting national attention. After all these publicity and expectation, can we really name them “dark horse”? I like this team, and I like their chance to reach the playoffs too.

Players to watch:
Greg Oden.
Enough said.

Rudy Fernandez.
The media call him the Spanish Ginobili. And I feel offended. Ginobili is way more versatile, especially on defense, and talented than him … anyway, McMillan should play him and develop him to be a super sub, just like Ginobili.


9. LA Clippers

Depth Chart:
PG: Baron Davis / Jason Hart / Mike Taylor (r)
SG: Cuttino Mobley / Eric Gordon (r)
SF: Al Thornton / Ricky Davis
PF: Marcus Camby / Tim Thomas / Steve Novak
C: Chris Kaman / Brian Skinner / DeAndre Jordan (r) / Paul Davis

Comments:
There will be three teams challenging the Blazers for the last playoffs spots: Clippers, Warriors and Nuggets. I put the Clippers at the top among the three because they have the deepest roster. They have all-star Baron Davis, and an envious 7-footer tandem in Camby and Kaman. Young gun Al Thornton showed huge potential last season and this should be his breakout season. They also have rookie Eric Gordon and Ricky Davis to provide bench scoring. Plus, they are flexible too. They can go small by playing BD, Gordon and Ricky Davis at 1,2,3 and Thornton at PF; alternatively they can go big by playing Thornton at SF and Camby at PF. The problem is, if BD is hurt, they don’t have Jason “No More White Chocolate” Williams (retired) to run the show and Jason Hart is not exactly a starting material. While we are here, let’s see, they have a whopping 11 new comers. Except for Mobley, Thornton and Kaman, all are new to the team. How long will they need to generate chemistry? And many of them have been labeled as troublemakers. Can Dunleavy handle all of the “character” guys like BD, RD and even Kaman? For sure it would be chaotic, but the talent is there. And the show is in LA.

Players to watch:
Al Thornton.
Thornton should build on his solid rookie season to make himself a legitimate starter.


10. Denver Nuggets

Depth Chart:
PG: Allen Iverson / Chucky Atkins
SG: J.R. Smith / Linas Kleiza
SF: Carmelo Anthony / Renaldo Blackman
PF: Kenyon Martin / Chris Anderson
C: Nene / Steven Hunter

Comments:
They gave away Camby for free, meaning that they have decided to give up and are officially in the rebuilding stage. This year’s Nuggets would be a lame duck one as AI will be playing out his contract without any extension offer. I won’t expect AI to give up but nonetheless will hurt the chemistry because everyone KNEW that he would be gone. Anyway, with AI, ‘Melo and the recently re-signed JR Smith, they will score a lot. But without Camby, they don’t have anyone to protect the paint. In the past, AI, JR Smith and ‘Melo gambled a lot on defense and it was Camby who had been covering their mistakes. Now? K-Mart? Nene? Please. And if they only managed to reach the first round with Camby, they are very likely to fall out of the playoffs without him. And is the $60 million Nene ready to start? It always seems like he will never be ready.

Players to watch:
Renaldo Blackman.
An athletic forward who runs hard and plays hard, which fit the style of George Karl. An energy guy who is a fans’ favorite in New York. Limited upside in offense but can potentially boost up the defense of the Nuggets at the forward positions.


11. Golden States Warriors

Depth Chart:
PG: Monta Ellis (inj) / Marcus Williams / CJ Watson
SG: Corey Maggette / Kelenna Azubuike / Marco Belinelli
SF: Stephen Jackson / Anthony Randolph (r)
PF: Al Harrington / Brandan Wright
C: Andris Biedrins / Ronny Turiaf

Comments:
Same old Nellie ball, expect them to continue playing their “all-out offense, no defense” show. Expect them to play small balls for 70% of the time. As discussed, they signed Corey Maggette who is a gifted and athletic player, which somehow mitigate the damage caused by the departure of Baron Davis. Expect Maggette to post up some strong scoring numbers which should exceeds that of BD’s. Maggette is ok on defense but BD simply didn’t play any defense. BD’s ball handling job will be shared by Ellis (when he returns) and Marcus Williams. Talent-wise, it’s not that a big drop. What they miss is BD’s craziness. Yes, the same craziness that propelled them to beat the Mavs in 2007 playoffs (with the help of the now departed J-Rich). Alright, they still have Steph Jax, the other crazy guy, but the team is just not the same. In the past, they were named as “the team that nobody wants to face at #8”. Nowadays, teams are not scared by them anymore. They have lost the fear factor. Granted, give them credits to play hard until the very last game to fight for the playoffs spot last season. This year? Monta Ellis will be out at least until December due to the moped accident, it would be a more tough time for them to hang on before Christmas. And did I tell you that rosters in Portland and LA Clippers have been vastly improved? But they still have Don Nelson, who can always surprise you by in unorthodox coaching method. So I have to put them down on here as a potential dark horse.

Players to watch:
Marcus Williams.
Originally I put Ellis here. Now that he’s gone, it’s up to Marcus Williams to run the offense. I’ve watched Williams played while he was with the Nets. He has good court vision and passing skills, and he has a reliable outside jump shots. But he is inconsistent as a floor general and is helpless in defense. That’s fine, the Warriors don’t need a pure PG and they don’t play D at all.