March Madness 2009

I do not follow college basketball much. First, I do not have that much time to follow so many sports, and I would rather stick with the NBA. Second, I did not go to college in the US so I do not have much history or ties or even hates with any college at all (rivalvies included). Third, college basketball games are not shown in Hong Kong until at the late stage of the Tournament, and it is very difficult to follow something that you do not have a chance to watch. Last but not least, I find it difficult to attach any emotion to any college team, since under the current system, almost all college star players are “one and done” type. Good players always opt for NBA draft after their freshman year. That is, just when you are getting some feeling about them during their first Tourney, and after the summer, they will be donning a Clippers’ or Grizzlies’ or Timberwolves’ jerseys. That is the most frustrating of all.

Anyway, each year, I always start to pay attention to college basketball when March Madness begins. One reason is that I have to maintain conversation with my hoop friends. Most of them are from US colleges and pay so much attention to the Tourney that nobody is listening to me or arguing with me about the NBA during that one-month period, especially after the All-Star Game and the trade deadline when things are mostly settled.

I mean, the Tourney is intriguing. The one-and-out elimination format is always exciting. People always pull for any underdogs, and it's always fun reading bloggers/fans trashing Duke. Every year. That's really something. I mean, it's OK for you to hate the Yankees. It's OK for you to hate the Knicks or the Lakers. It's OK for you to hate the USA or George W. Bush. However, why do you hate a college team? C'mon, these are just kids! The Duke players do not deserve to be hated! What happen to these people?


Back to this year's Tourney. I have quickly looked at the bracket this year. There are many familiar teams, big names like Duke, UCLA, UNC, Memphis, UConn, or usual suspects like Pittsburgh, Michigan, Syracuse, Arizona, Texas, LSU, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, South California, Louisville, Tennessee, etc. Too bad we wouldn’t be seeing Stephen Curry and his Davidson Wildcats this year for another Cinderella run; or any impossible run by George Mason. The only story that is worth mentioning maybe is the surprise early exit of #4 seed Wake Forest, who was knocked out by Cleveland State in the first round.

As of today, first weekend’s games were finished. Not many upsets so far, as we see all 4 first seeds as well as all 4 second seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen. UNC, Louisville, Pittsburgh and UConn are the favorite picks of the Final Four so far. Let's see if there is any more surprises from now on.

In fact, the most important reason for me to follow the college games is that I need to prepare myself for the upcoming NBA Draft. That is why I always watch or follow the college games (the Tourney) like a scout instead of a fan. I seldom take note of who’s winning and who’s losing. Instead, I focus on the performance of individual potential draftees. This year’s draftees, according to ESPN’s Chad Ford, are not that great, where the talent level drops significantly after the top 3 or top 5 picks. However, we all know that the Tourney can boost up the stock of the players dramatically. Like the way Derrick Rose jumped from top-5 to unanimous #1 pick last year after an impressive Tourney performance. Or the championship team of Florida, led by Joakim Noah and Al Horford, all the members saw them did pretty well in the draft after their repeat. I know it's a bit late, but here are the potential stars in the Tourney that will likely be seen in the Green Room in June’s draft this year:

Blake Griffin, PF, 6'10", Sophomore, Oklahoma (Comparison: Carlos Boozer)

- consensus No.1 pick this year. Griffin simply dominated at the college level this season. His NO.1 status is so locked up that not even a disappointing tournament would hurt his chance.

James Harden, SG, 6'4", Sophomore, Arizona State (Comparison: Manu Ginobili)

- mostly viewed as an undersized SG, Harden is a projected top-5 pick and is one of the best scorers in college. He's a lefty, together with the fact that he is a solid defender renders him the Ginobili comparison. It's hard to see him getting past Griffin, but a big Tourney would give him a safe No.2.

Jordan Hill, PF, 6'9", Junior, Arizona (Comparison: Chris Wilcox)

- Super athletic with huge upside. Already projected as a Top-5 pick, Hill may further solidify his Top-3 status with a big Tourney.

Hasheem Thabeet, C, 7'3", Junior, Connecticut (Comparison: Samuel Dalembert)

- The saying is, you can't teach 7'3". However, there's a reason why Thabeet did not come out of college for the past 2 years. He's just not that talented. This draft will give him the best chance because of the lack of big men as well as another productive year in UConn.

Jeff Teague, G, 6'2", Sophomore, Wake Forest (Comparison: Monta Ellis)
Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, 6'8", Freshman, Wake Forest (Comparison: Josh Smith)

- Teague is said to be Top-10 while Aminu is lottery bound. Would the surprise early exit of the Demon Deacons hurt their values? While both are talented, on the downside, scouts said Teague is no CP3 in terms of pure-PG plays while Aminu is a bit raw.

Willie Warren, G, 6'4", Freshman, Oklahoma (Comparison: Jason Terry)

- excellent athlete and probably the best freshman in the country. He's a SG right now, but people would like to see if he can display some playmaking ability in order to boost him to Top-5.

Gerald Henderson, SG, 6'5", Junior, Duke (Comparison: Courtney Lee)

- He has a versatile all-round game and is so far projected to be mid-to-late-first round pick. The problem is, he is perceived as a streaky shooter. Can he benefit from a big Tourney to sneak into the lottery?

Earl Clark, SF, 6'9", Junior, Louisville (Comparison: Marvin Williams)

- long and athletic, Clark can also play PF. Perceived as an inconsistent player, the Tourney can determine whether he is mid-first round pick or Top-10.

Ty Lawson, PG, 5'11", Junior, UNC (Comparison: Raymond Felton)

- a mid-first round pick, but if UNC could go as far as the Final Four or further, Lawson may have a chance to go to the lottery.

Tyreke Evans, G, Freshman, Memphis (Comparison: Larry Hughes)

- an excellent scorer who has just been transformed into a PG. While the Derrick Rose comparison is not fair to him, Evans is so far mid-to-late-first round pick. A good Tourney hopefully could boost his value, like Rose last year, to say lottery.

DaJuan Blair, PF, 6'7", Sophomore, Pittsburgh (Comparison: Paul Millsap)

- an undersized PF in pro level, but a big Tourney run will help him to go from late-first round to top 10.

DeMar DeRozan, SG, 6'6", Freshman, USC (Comparison: Gerald Green)

- one of the most athletic guys in the Tourney. Already lottery bound, the success of the Trojans will help DeRozan to boost up to Top-10.

Cole Aldrich, C, 6'11", Sophomore, Kansas (Comparison: Kevin Love)

- one of the rare centers in this draft. This year's draft does not have too many top big men, so a good Tourney would give him a chance to crack the lottery, if not the Top-10.

Jrue Holiday, PG, 6'3", Freshman, UCLA (Comparison: Delonte West)

- He is the most intersting case. He's the most talented player in the team, but is very raw. While most scouts would like him with another year in college (and become a Top-3 pick in 2010), a big Tourney could convince GMs that he's NBA ready. Pure on talent, he's for sure lottery bound.

***

Here are the potential lottery picks not participating in the Tournament:

Greg Monroe, PF, 6'11", Freshman, Georgetown (Comparison: Pau Gasol)

- old school, fundamentally sound. He's not strong enough to play big in the pro level, but nonetheless is Top-5 locked.

Stephen Curry, PG, 6'3", Junior, Davidson (Comparison: Mike Bibby)

- I think Curry should have come out of college after a terrific run last season. However, his stock are still high despite Davidson missing the Tourney this season. Fearless, with strong leadership and a superb scoring skills, people like the way he's transformed into a PG. A Top-10 pick.

Competitive Landscape of the NBA

After all the injuries, deadline trades and veteran signings, let take a look at the competitive landscape of the league with around 20 games left for the season:

WEST:

Despite losing Andrew Bynum, the Lakers remain the favorite to win the West. Pau Gasol is more comfortable with the team after a full summer of practice, and Trevor Ariza is the energy guy that they have been looking for. Frankly, even without Bynum, I don’t think Phil Jackson worries about the Spurs much. Their goal is to win it all. Now, with the uncertainty arisen by KG’s injury, and with their own improved roster, the Lakers should be more confident when facing the Celtics this time around. As for the Cavs, the Lakers swept them this season, including a convincing win in Cleveland (Kobe sick, no Bynum) last month. They should not be scared by the Cavs should they meet them in the Finals. Yup, so far they looks like to be the favourite to win it all too.

The Spurs is at #2 but actually there’s quite some distance from the Lakers. Manu Ginobili will sit out the next 2-3 weeks, Caoch Greg Popovich is determined to give him as much rest as they can, so that Ginobili can be 100% in the playoffs. Newcomer Roger Mason is a pleasant surprise and Matt Bonner is probably the best scoring big men teammate Tim Duncan has ever had since the Admiral, but as I said many times, their defense has worsened quite considerably. Both Mason and Bonner are inferior defenders, and adding the fact that Bruce Bowen can no longer run with the opponents’ ace scorers, the Spurs might not have their famous suffocating defense on hand. I mean, how can the Spurs stop Kobe, Gasol and Odom at the same time? The addition of Drew Gooden is nice, but if you think he is the difference-maker, you probably should not be driving, cuz you've taken too much drugs.

No. 3 to No. 7 (Rockets, Jazz, Hornets, Blazers, Nuggets) are just 1 game apart. Yup, they are that close. The Rockets, now at #3, lost T-Mac for the season, but I think they did well by getting away the unproductive but aging Rafer Alston while adding a young and promising Kyle Lowry. Without T-Mac, they might remain competitive in the regular season, just like last year. But let's face it, their most problem is not talent but the lack of leadership. No one in the team can provide that, and please don't get me started with the "leadership" of Ron Artest. They stay no chance of beating the Lakers or the Spurs and if they maintain at #3, a second round exit is a likely outcome. They should, instead, focusing on the future, especially of Artest, who will become a FA this summer. He has been playing extremely well in the abesnce of T-Mac though.

The Jazz (#4) is the dark horse in the West. I’m not saying that they can beat the Lakers, but if healthy, the Jazz will be a serious threat to the Spurs, not to mention the Hornets and the Rockets. Carlos Boozer is back (however was out again in the last game), AK47 is also back and D-Will is healthy and once again playing like an all-star. They had been 8-2 for the last 10 games, and have just taken over the Northwest Division from the Nuggets. This is a well-coached team that went to the Conference Finals 2 years ago. They are as tough as steel and nobody would want to face them in the playoffs. While it’s remote to say that they can upset the Lakers, but anything other than that is entirely possible.

Perhaps the term "blessing in disguise" best described the Hornets. The non-trade of Tysan Chandler simply made them closer and stronger together. After struggling for the entire season, they are back on track again. CP3 and David West are playing like all-stars again. The chemistry is once again great and the team is in the zone. But the on-and-off injury of Tysan Chandler will be the determining factor on their success. If they really finishes at #5 as they are right now, they would have a tough matchup against the Jazz. I think they'd rather see the Rockets.

Everybody loves the Blazers (#6) and they are for sure young and lovable. I love them too and like everyone else, I love Brandon Roy. I’m glad that the rumored Vince Carter-Raef Lafrentz didn’t go through, but it’s a shame that they failed to make use of Lafrentz’s expiring contract to make any meaningful move before the trading deadline. The health of Greg Oden will forever be a concern, and so long as Oden has not been fully developed, the Blazers will remain just as a "first-round and out" team.

The Nuggets, once #3, had some recent struggle and the super intense competition in the West immediately sent them to #7. Say whatever you want about Billups, and they certainly are a better team than with Iverson, but I genuinely believe that this team is not as good as their record shows. Billups is good, ‘Melo is one of the league's top scorers and Nene has been a rare combination of size and athleticism, but others, namely Dahntay Jones, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith etc are all mediocre at best. If they can't regain the division title thus home court advantage in the first round, another early playoffs exit is the likely outcome.

The Mavs are playing better after the All-Star break, even without Jason Terry. With JT back, they should only be better. Although they are safer to make the playoffs now that the injury of Amare has pushed the Suns out of the playoffs picture, I don’t think they will be able to go any further. They just don’t defend well, as simple as that. They stay no chance of getting past the first round.

The Suns is an unlucky team. Just when things were turning around after the firing of Terry Porter, Amare went down. With Nash, J-Rich and Shaq, they remain as a solid team, but falling behind the Mavs by 4 games, it will be super tough for them to just make the playoffs without Amare. A huge blow to such a talented team. Anyway, the last playoffs spots will only grant them the rights to face the Lakers in the first round. I’m not sure it is worthy to do. Why not go to the lottery and try to get a better rookie this summer?


EAST:

Yes, the injury of KG (2-3 weeks) is a huge blow to the Celtics, and they might eventually end up at #2 in the East as a result. Yes, we saw how they beat the Cavs last weekend without KG, but we all know how important home court advantage is to the Celtics. Remember the horrible 6 consecutive road losses in last year’s playoffs? However, this is just a minor issue here. A more imminent problem is that this year’s Cs is not as deep as last year, and they don’t have a Posey or PJ Brown on the bench. Recent signings of Marbury and Mikke Moore help, but you will not confuse them with Posey and PJ Brown. Backup big men Big Baby and Leon Powe played well recently in the absence of KG, let's hope they could starting building up confidence. But at the end of the day, the Cs rely heavily on KG. If KG is anything but 100% when comes playoffs time, the Celtics will have trouble winning any frontcourt battle.

The Cavs was hit by injuries early on but now they have their full squad back. Big Z (Ilgauskas) is healthy, and Delonte West is back too. Yes, the Cavs were not able to pull a Shaq trade before the deadline, but they look like a legit contender right now. With the problems the Cs are facing, the Cavs have a good chance to win the conference this year. Adding Joe Smith is great, only is that he cannot replace Big Ben in the defensive end (yes, even the 2009 version of Big Ben). Last Friday's defeat in Boston is demoralizing, but nobody is hungrier than this team. They are young and dangerous. Oh and by the way, they have a player named LeBron James.

With Jameer Nelson’s season over, and despite the addition of Rafer Alston and Tyron Lue, the Magic are not figured to be a contender anymore. With 20 games left, they should be able to maintain their lead in their division and thereby locking up home court advantage in the first round. But what's next? They can't beat Celtics or Cavs anyway.

The Heat is a dark horse. I like their decision on sending the Matrix to Raptors. Jermaine O'Neal finally filled their big hole in the middle. They also added valuable role player Jamario Moon. With Wade playing like a MVP, the Heat, right now at #5 and is likely to start the first round on the road, could pull any upset against the Hawks or even the Magic. I’ve learnt that, with Wade, anything is possible. Rookie coach Erik Spoelstra needs to control and maximize the output of such a talented team. Is he up to the challenge?

After staying at the top in the East for years, the Pistons finally started to fall. Don’t blame Iverson, they would have gone south with or without the Billups-Iverson trade, although the trade for sure has speeded up the process. Let's make it clear, they took Iverson not because of his talent, but his expiring contract. I hate the Rip Ham coming off the bench experiment. Rip Ham, as we can see, is clearly more effective starting. You should never make roster decision simply because you don't want to upset the huge ego of an expiring contract (aka Iverson). People say they are experienced and talented, and it will not be a surprise for them to upset the Magic or the Hawks in the first round. But on second thought, you should never underestimate the potential damage on the team morale by the Iverson debacle. With a shaky morale, I don't see them pulling any upset in the playoffs, which would require a lot of confidence and determination. Their focus should be on this year’s and next year’s summer.

The Hawks and the Sixers are basically locked to the playoffs. Both teams have incomplete rosters and will just have a brief appearance in the playoffs.

The Bulls were quite busy last month making trades. They finally found a legit center in Brad Miller, got rid of Larry Hughes and Gooden, and added a young swingman (John Salmons). Yes, they miss Nocioni and his toughness, but this is a talented team mixed with youth and experience. They got size and athleticism. They have legit scorers and have partially alleviated the logjam in the guard positions. If I don’t look at the coach’s name, I will in no doubt picking them to get into the playoffs. I am still having problem connecting the words “coach” and “Del Negro”.

The Bucks play surprisingly good without their starting center (Andrew Bogut) and their franchise player (Michael Redd). They are now at #9 and are not far behind the Bulls (1/2 game). But the Bulls had a huge win last Friday over the Bucks, and gave the Bulls a tie-breaker. Kudos to the Bucks, and coach Scott Skiles, frankly, for playing hard in such an injury-plagued season.

The Nets failed to ship Vince Carter before the deadline. That’s a real shame, frankly. Consider this: this team is young, so young that they will unlikely make the playoffs any time before 2010 (although they are just 1 game behind the Bulls). Vince, now at 31, has no real business playing for a lottery team, except for the money. What they’ve been doing, is getting as much salary cap as possible for the impeding 2010 megastars sweepstake, and Vince’s contract won’t expire until 2011 the earliest. When 2010 comes, Vince will already be 34. The problem is, nobody wants Vince’s contract.

The Bobcats, just like other teams under Larry Brown in the first season, struggled in the first half but finally played some solid basketball in the second half. Yes, Larry Brown loves making roster moves but it's hard to argue against their solid plays recently. Seems like he finally has found a viable rotation: Felton, Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Diaw and Okafor starting, while DJ Augustin, Radmanovic and Diop off the bench. With just 1 game behind the Bulls, it would be a huge accomplishment if they could get into the playoffs.

The Knicks can continue dreaming of the playoffs.